November fitba: Is anything interesting happening?

[Spikey M]

At the back of my mind I had a FACT stored that the majority of Russia is in Asia, but because Moscow is in Europe we just assume it's all Europe. But Google tells me only 25% is in Asia.

I made a mistake and Taz - looking up to me as he does - is now repeating it. Be kind to him.

[Serj]

I think we could beat them at home but they’re probably the best team in the unseeded pot. Maybe Austria if they get their act together but we really should have beaten them home and away rather than just away.

I really wouldn’t fancy an away game to Russia. Referees on the pay roll and all that

We're clueless and will falter against anyone half-decent. I'd have the Czechs, Poland and Turkey as all being better than us at the moment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I see Uruguay might not qualify as well, let the good times roll in.

Ecuador can fuck off, mind. The Switzerland of South America.

Canada all but through for the first time since 1986.

[Boydy]

At the back of my mind I had a FACT stored that the majority of Russia is in Asia, but because Moscow is in Europe we just assume it's all Europe. But Google tells me only 25% is in Asia.

I made a mistake and Taz - looking up to me as he does - is now repeating it. Be kind to him.
Are you sure that's not population? I think the majority of the landmass is in Asia but the majority of the population live in the European part.

[Ian]

I've just looked up the England / Ecuador game from 2006 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/world_cup_2006/4991536.stm

What a bench.

Lennon, Downing, Carragher, James, Campbell, Bridge, Carson, Crouch, Jenas, Neville, Walcott.

You don't hear / read about a crossed ball as having been "centred" any more, do you?

[Giggles]

xDelivery.

[Pen]

Ilmari Niskanen is going to be one of my favourite players over the last few years. He smiles more than Ngolo Kante :wub:

I feel you ended up getting the wrong player from Kups, but hopefully he does well for you. We have fuck all wingers as it is.

[Spikey M]

Are you sure that's not population? I think the majority of the landmass is in Asia but the majority of the population live in the European part.

Get in Boydy my Son.

Spikey and Taz have donned Giggles and Ian relentlessly here.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The decision to play Carrick in the holding role gave England a better base to build from, but Lampard and Gerrard were not getting forward enough to give the increasingly frustrated Rooney some much-needed support.

All our yesterdays.

[Giggles]

Get in Boydy my Son.

Spikey and Taz have donned Giggles and Ian relentlessly here.

Picking #teamtaz is always picking the wrong side.

[Ian]

I had no opinion it, I was just here for the Spikey vs. Spikey beef.

[Spikey M]

Picking #teamtaz is always picking the wrong side.

Man's might have a point.


I had no opinion it, I was just here for the Spikey vs. Spikey beef.

You picked your side when you picked Spikey over me.

[Ian]

You had it coming.

[Manc]

How on earth has Kachunga landed in Bolton?

[Luca]

Canada having a legitimate shot at making the World Cup is proper glitch-in-the-simulation stuff, as is taking points from Mexico at the Azteca and last night beating them 2-1 at home (in a match we dominated for 90 minutes and only got close in the last 5).

They also celebrated the second goal by jumping in the snow. :D

[Giggles]

We? I never knew that. Do you have as many we's as Kiko?

[Luca]

I did turbo-edit “we” to “they” as Italy is my primary allegiance.

To be fair to me though, I am a dual Canadian-Italian citizen, so I am allowed to support both nations. Kiko is just gloryhunting scum.

[Lewis]

Is that just for football or have you thoroughly failed the Tebbit Test?

[Giggles]

I would have said Italian, actually thought the other half was American for some season.

[Luca]

I was living in the US for a while, but am back in (my home and) native land.

Lewis, I’ve fully failed. It’s Italy in most things. Maybe not ice hockey…

[Lewis]

It's probably more Canada's fault than your own.

[Kikó]

Fuck off you Canadian moose fucker.

The Stockport-Bolton game was absolutely brilliant.

[Giggles]

#manofthepeople

[Manc]

Stockport are 9/2 for promotion. Based on last night I'd suggest we pile in as a community.

[Kikó]

They were genuinely brilliant. Quigley (?) was a real beast, plus the lad who came on and played like a 1950s winger. Very enjoyable. Shame the prem clubs join now.

[Shindig]

Managed by Dave Challinor. :D

[Lofty]

Stockport are rich arent they? Kept poaching Barrow players such as Quigley and Rooney's brother.

More amusing is Quigley putting his old Barrow boss Evatt to the sword.

[Lofty]

Chelsea putting season tickets up from £1250 to £3900.

[Kikó]

Inflation for you.

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's not quite as simple as that, they're converting some halfway line seats into semi-hospitality so booting a few people to other parts of the ground (unless they want to pay that price to stay there).

Matchday football is all about hospitality, revenue-wise, I'm surprised more of this doesn't go on.

[mo]

See Exeter v Bradford has to be replayed as Exeter brought on one too many subs. Bradford CEO rightly fuming as the cost outweighs the benefit. Surprised they didn't just kick Exeter out.

[Shindig]

Is kicking them out no the standard punishment? If that happens in a league game, they're docked points.

[Gray Fox]

Why is the fourth official allowing them to make another sub anyway?

[Disco]

Exeter is much nicer than Bradford, they should be thanking us if anything.

[phonics]

Still blows my mind that Kanu scored off a dodgy throw in and we played an entire match again because Wenger felt bad.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That, the 'creative penalty' and Kim Kallstrom were the three Big Weirds of Wenger's stint.

[niko_cee]

Probably just had too much respect for Steve Bruce as a top, top manager to let that Kanu thing stand.

[Ian]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59328494


Lingard opted to stay at Manchester United this season even though six clubs asked about his services, believing manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would provide him with more game time.

The Binman change his line-up? Good one, Jesse. At least you've still got a sense of humour.

[Baz]

Good to have the soccer back tomorrow, although I have the unpleasantness of watching the Liverpool game in a pub.

[Kikó]

I've got tickets for the massive fixture of the weekend - FSV Frankfurt v Kickers Offenbach.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A tough game for the away side ahead of next week's derby against Headers Seldomhowl.

[niko_cee]

De Bruyne has covid. Hasn't he had it already?

[Smjffy]

He thought he and his family had it near the beginning of the pandemic but no tests back then so who knows.

[Adramelch]

Even if he did have it back then, I am pretty sure the immunity doesn't last that long.

[niko_cee]

Eddie Howe's down too. :happycry:

[Shindig]

Cursed club. :D

[Giggles]

Always like those ones that rise all the way in.


1461792522645250055

[Ian]

Always like those ones that rise all the way in.

That is a belter. You'll like this if you haven't seen it before, one of my favourite recent goals:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s10w3QC2Us8

[Giggles]

Hadn't. That's a serious wallop :cool:

[Shindig]

The net. :drool:

[Adramelch]

That one's also pretty filthy although it does gain height a bit earlier. The casting makes it even better though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ju0XBTb5mjQ

[Danny]

100% support them playing Will Griggs on fire too.

[Jimmy Floyd]

All goals are better when the celebration is captured from The Tardelli Angle. Seems to be a staple in Italy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Eddie Howe's out of his first game with covid.

I offer no comment on this news, lest the Saudis track me down and accuse me of being OBSESSED.

[Smjffy]

That is a belter. You'll like this if you haven't seen it before, one of my favourite recent goals:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s10w3QC2Us8

Noice.

What got me the most other than the goal was his team mate ducking, given the speed in which a ball is meant to travel (MPH), that's gotta be some lightening quick reflexes to avoid being decapitated.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Objectively speaking, that's probably one of the best goals ever scored. No keeper who has ever lived would have got near it.

[Ian]

It is a beautiful goal. Some of the best ball on side netting action you could hope for.

[Kikó]

I love striking the ball on the rise. It's just a thing of beauty when done right and the power that can be generated is pure sex.

[Yevrah]

Yeah, that is an absolute beauty.

[Don]

Even without Tilly, I fancy Leicester here. Harvey Barnes is about to hit form.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Since getting BT I can't emphasise enough how shit their coverage is. I can't wait until Jake Humphry gets cancelled.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Ben Chilwell is so good, to the point where he should be in the early Player of the Year considerations. Tuchel has rapidly turned him into a proto-Bale but who can still defend.

[niko_cee]

Of course I benched Rudi in fantasy football this week.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This is as one-sided a procession as we've had all season. Good work Taz.

[Don]

I take that back. Soumare letting him run through like that :D

[-james-]

I don't understand how Leicester are so shit.

[Waffdon]

Rodgers has the Mourinho vibes. Can’t stay somewhere too long.

[Kikó]

Perfect fit for United then. 🤤

[Jimmy Floyd]

To be fair I think a lot of it is Chelsea being really good. I don't know what he did on the training ground over the summer but so many players have been transformed. The best coach (as opposed to manager) we have had for many years.

[Waffdon]

Should have won by about 5 against Burnley too. Probably one of the only games where having Lukaku suits

[Boydy]

Rodgers has the Mourinho vibes. Can’t stay somewhere too long.
He's not very good. Almost winning the title with Liverpool was down to Suarez being fucking amazing. Then what did he do? Went to Celtic and won stuff? Big deal.

[Kikó]

And won the cup with Leicester and finished top five a few times in a row. He's no Steve Bruce etc

[niko_cee]

Hopefully Taz fancies Mikel Arteta's Arsenal to spring a shock later, but I doubt it.

[Don]

Taz fancied Tuchel to be this special in the face of Jimmy's Lampard bumming but let's not pick on everyone's favourite white English cricketer, let's pick on the ethnic don. Fucking structural racism runs deep.

[-james-]

That was great from Chelsea but Leicester were so far off them it was ridiculous.

[John Arne]

Possibly the 2 worst penalty attempts from Sarr I've seen for some time. Garbage.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Please sack him.

[Smjffy]

Sarr is one frustrating player. Good but not good enough at the moment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Good job Smiff. The key is, I find, you have to really mean it. Feel it. Taz must be a ball of sensations.

[randomlegend]

If Ole doesn't go after this then he knows where Woodward has buried a body :D

[Smjffy]

My work here is done. :cool:

Back to FM.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

At least Maguire shut everyone up with some goals against goatherders.

[Shindig]

Our defence is so shit Joelinton has to start scoring to even it out. United could do with a Joelinton. And a Steve Bruce.

[Waffdon]

An Aberdeen player was just sent off for being pushed by a fan. Lol, I’ll take it.

[niko_cee]

How have United managed to have a penalty missed against them twice and still be getting humped by Watford?

Fightback 2-2 please.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I can't see us fighting back. The players didn't both responding when 1-0 down, I think they just want him gone now.

[Cord]

Ole is awful, but these lot on the pitch aren't even trying. Most of them need feeding into the nearest bit of industrial machinery with some sort of mulch setting.

[Adramelch]

I reckon United need David Moyes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Ole is awful, but these lot on the pitch aren't even trying. Most of them need feeding into the nearest bit of industrial machinery with some sort of mulch setting.
They're tired of saving his job.

[niko_cee]

Donny's not. :cool:

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

What is Van De Beek doing on the pitch before the 87th minute?

[Spikey M]

Impact substitution :cool:
#OleIn

[Dquincy]

Shame Roy Keane is not in the studio. His comments would be fun to watch.

Really hope they don't sack him.

[Gray Fox]

Pulling this back to a draw/win will buy him another month or so.

[Smjffy]

:D Peak Maguire.

[Gray Fox]

https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/67/750x445/1520727.jpg


I now await our shitshow of a line up. About 45 of them got injured on international duty so we'll see what's cobbled together.

[Yevrah]

These players really are letting the manager down, they should be ashamed of themselves. Not good enough for League One.

Just about cover it?

[Smjffy]

I now await our shitshow of a line up. About 45 of them got injured on international duty so we'll see what's cobbled together.

Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Tsimikas, Fabinho, Thiago, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Mane, Salah, Jota.

[Gray Fox]

Not a fan of Oxlade having to start, but it is what it is.

The state of that bench.

[Gray Fox]

Steven Gerrards' Aston Villa with a big win to start him off.

[Dquincy]

3-1. Ole's at the wheel. :D

Sadly not for long.

[Yevrah]

4-1. :D

Can't wait to see Gary's take on this.

[Adramelch]

4-1. :D

Can't wait to see Gary's take on this.

"The players want him out so they are not even trying, it's preposterous".

[Spikey M]

Can we have an update on RL's bet with Taz? :happycry:

[Giggles]

Quality :D

[Smjffy]

Trust the process. :D

Dennis has been pretty darn good all game tbf to him.

[randomlegend]

Can we have an update on RL's bet with Taz? :happycry:

I am not winning.

[Offshore Toon]

Our game was a lot of fun but Joelinton falling over in the box when through for a potential winner is hard to take.

[Shindig]

You can't get better than bottom, lads. :cool:

[Disco]

Can we have an update on RL's bet with Taz? :happycry:

Nostrildamus is very much in the lead I would think.

[Spikey M]

Nostrildamus :D

[Lewis]

"The players want him out so they are not even trying, it's preposterous".

'It might be worth refreshing his coaching staff.'

[Giggles]

Where's Garreh?

[Adramelch]

'It might be worth refreshing his coaching staff.'

"And let's not forget about Klopp's mindgames, United should have had 4 penalties today".

[Dquincy]

This man utd result makes the missing out of Conte even more mental. He's exactly what they need. Would sort out the defence and has enough quality in the attacking options to make it work.

[Yevrah]

1462105127280594945

Makes it sound like this doesn't happen that often.

[Yevrah]

This man utd result makes the missing out of Conte even more mental. He's exactly what they need. Would sort out the defence and has enough quality in the attacking options to make it work.

Look, they've tried big managers and it didn't work.

[Dquincy]

Look, they've tried big managers and it didn't work.
Maybe G Nev is the answer. Give him the rest of the season.

[Adramelch]

Maybe G Nev is the answer. Give him the rest of the season.

Nah that would be unfair. OGB gets to finish the season so G Nev can start afresh. Now that's the way to do it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Look, they've tried big managers and it didn't work.

If big managers don't work and neither do club legends, what will work according to Neville?

[Don]

Nostrildamus and raghead. The whities don't like it up 'em and it's beautiful.

[Lewis]

This man utd result makes the missing out of Conte even more mental. He's exactly what they need. Would sort out the defence and has enough quality in the attacking options to make it work.

It looks more mental by the day, which is why they will persist with it.

[niko_cee]

Not a fan of Oxlade having to start, but it is what it is.

The state of that bench.

Thiago's the bigger concern. Saw Xavi wanted him back at Barcelona the other day. Make it so.

[niko_cee]

1462105127280594945

Makes it sound like this doesn't happen that often.

At least they all have the apologies ready to C&P onto social media.

[Gray Fox]

https://i.gyazo.com/ec32ec81c0816a0f7740caa4f75a90c0.png

[Giggles]

Nostrildamus and raghead. The whities don't like it up 'em and it's beautiful.

When you're quick to dish it out then there's no point in crying.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is Harry Maguire going to do separate apologetic tweets for the red card and the team's defeat, or combine it into one?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

He should just post clips of his goals for England during the last international break.

[Giggles]

Jack Wilshere needs to forget about the media career.

[Andy]

Liverpool had a 30 year drought between league titles, wouldn't be surprised if its the same for United. Love to see it.

[Giggles]

Is Harry Maguire going to do separate apologetic tweets for the red card and the team's defeat, or combine it into one?

I want to see this.


1462103653754490881

[Andy]

Jack Wilshere needs to forget about the media career.

Sounds like he doesn't want to be there, so monotone.

[Gray Fox]

Thiago's the bigger concern. Saw Xavi wanted him back at Barcelona the other day. Make it so.

Not a fan? I'm more 70-30 on him. He's great to have against the Burnleys of the world, but he always gets booked. He does look like a not needed luxury a lot of the time. A lot of very pretty passes but maybe not so much substance. Overall I like him though.

This should be a good barometer for Arsenal. A depleted Liverpool here at a place they usually get pumped at. Do they fancy it?

[Giggles]

Haven't Arsenal beaten the sum total of fuck all? 3-0 Liverpool.

[Offshore Toon]

It's a bit strange that the self-righteous lot aren't picking up on Giggles repeatedly calling Taz a raghead.

[Giggles]

It's a bit strange that the self-righteous lot aren't picking up on Giggles repeatedly calling Taz a raghead.

Repeatedly? Put the imaginary yellow card back in your pocket there.


Fail to see the problem anyway, everyone goes to town on everyone else here and it's always been that way so why should one person be protected?

[Waffdon]

Not a fan? I'm more 70-30 on him. He's great to have against the Burnleys of the world, but he always gets booked. He does look like a not needed luxury a lot of the time. A lot of very pretty passes but maybe not so much substance. Overall I like him though.

This should be a good barometer for Arsenal. A depleted Liverpool here at a place they usually get pumped at. Do they fancy it?

Hardly a depleted Liverpool side. You’re a left back and a centre mid from arguably your strongest team and even then Henderson is on the bench so he’s chosen Chamberlain by choice

[randomlegend]

If Ole isn't sacked before the next game I think I'm going to finally relent and stop watching for a while. It's just not even remotely fun any more.

[Waffdon]

That’ll show them!

[randomlegend]

Who?

[John Arne]

Ben White is an absolute bomb scare.

[phonics]

It's a bit strange that the self-righteous lot aren't picking up on Giggles repeatedly calling Taz a raghead.

Have done repeatedly. Taz said he doesn’t care and enjoys annoying Giggles so moved on.

[Yevrah]

Have done repeatedly. Taz said he doesn’t care and enjoys annoying Giggles so moved on.

What is this? Yorkshire Cricket Club?

[Gray Fox]

Arsenal were doing well until Arteta lost his head.

[phonics]

What is this? Yorkshire Cricket Club?

I’ve never sent out a warning on this board I don’t think. I can’t keep calling Giggles out for the same thing when the only person it’s attacking says he enjoys it.

[Giggles]

I’ve never sent out a warning on this board I don’t think. I can’t keep calling Giggles out for the same thing when the only person it’s attacking says he enjoys it.

You never call out when anyone else is being "attacked" so you're basically just a poser anyway.

Warn away, but make it a permanent one.

[phonics]

Yeah I’m definitely not known for calling people out on that shit and being called soft for it.

This ends with Liverpool +1.5 btw gamblers. 2-0 or 3-1

[Giggles]

1462124770502262787

[phonics]

“Give it t’Giggseh till end of t’season”

[Shindig]

They're cruising for a Bruce In.

[Spikey M]

1462124770502262787

:(


“Give it t’Giggseh till end of t’season”

Fingers crossed. Although Gary Neville is the dream.

[Spikey M]

They're cruising for a Bruce In.

Oh god. :drool:

[phonics]

Bruce with Roy Keane in the Roy Evans role.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

If we sack him (I'm still not sure that they actually will do it) then I can see it being Carrick until the end of the season and then someone like Ten Hag.

[Giggles]

Bruce would be the dream.

[phonics]

Brain dead pass of the year.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm still a right old dinosaur with this playing out from the back business. You've got to have such a high rate of not-fucking-up to avoid gifting goals from it.

[Shindig]

One of Altrincham's equalisers on Tuesday was from our keeper fannying about. There's a level to play that kind of stuff and it's not Conference North.

[phonics]

I'm still a right old dinosaur with this playing out from the back business. You've got to have such a high rate of not-fucking-up to avoid gifting goals from it.

Its kind of the point of it though. It’s ‘you will score more than you concede’ thing.

[Shindig]

It's probably better than a hopeful punt that comes straight back at you.

[John Arne]

Arsenal's problem is that they play it short, but then the 3rd pass tends to be a massive lump up field to van Dijk or Matip.

[Spikey M]

It's probably better than a hopeful punt that comes straight back at you.

Yup, it's football by spreadsheet. You'll keep the ball far more often than a hoof up-field allows for.

[Yevrah]

I've just seen the Man Utd highlights. :sick:

A relegation level performance.

[niko_cee]

I'm not sure the statswankers have enough data on the value of retaining possession versus the likelihood of gifting goals through incompetence.

[phonics]

This is my problem with xG. Could the xG lovers tell me who fits the mould of this supposed ‘average player’ we’re basing the stats on?

[Giggles]

As someone who has witnessed the change from 'clear the ball at every opportunity for 90 minutes' to 'fanny about', the results might not be better but I'd take the latter any day.

Having no prospects either way makes that easier though.

[John Arne]

Super Taki :drool:

[Don]

It's easier to spot mistakes that lead to a goal rather than marginal battles lost over possession that lead to a goal. That's why cretins still believe we need to pump balls aimlessly up and show GRIT and PASSION for our BATTLES.

[phonics]

I hate that we played kinda well and are going to get pummelled because of the optics of the score line.

It just seems dumb to me that you’re almost punished more for actually still trying to win when 2-0 down instead of just giving up.

[niko_cee]

All the result does is show where Arsenal are at the moment, much as the fistings they took off City and Chelsea did, and perhaps their otherwise good run does too. They're miles off the top teams, but improving to be at the head of the midfield chasers, maybe. Still think they're pretty average.

[phonics]

Newcastle at home then Man Utd and Everton away. If we play to that level today I think we come away with 9 points and sit in 4th.

[Boydy]

37% possession and 0.31 xG. Played well, aye.

[Shindig]

Newcastle at home then Man Utd and Everton away. If we play to that level today I think we come away with 9 points and sit in 4th.

Can't argue much with that. Our defence is generous and Bruce will be in charge for the United game.

[phonics]

37% possession and 0.31 xG. Played well, aye.

Watford had 39% possession today. What’s your point.

[phonics]

Just seen Burnley scores 3 with a 0.9 xG. Seems a really good and useful stat.

[-james-]

Just seen Burnley scores 3 with a 0.9 xG. Seems a really good and useful stat.

Surprisingly, the purpose of expected goals is not to precisely mirror observed goals in every match.

[Giggles]

All these xStats are complete dung built for an era where people only watch goals on their phone.

[phonics]

Surprisingly, the purpose of expected goals is not to precisely mirror observed goals in every match.

So then every teams xG stats should be worked out according to that team if it’s not about individual matches. Why does what Salah does impact Burnley’s xG?

[phonics]

Rio Ferdinand, "I could be a Sporting Director. I'd be amazing at it."

Jake Humphrey, "Who should Man Utd bring in as manager?"

Rio Ferdinand, ".....I dunno."


The correct answer by the way…

Steve Clarke.

[Dquincy]

1462151113688371203

:D

Can't wait for the apology tweets.

[phonics]

People said Arsene Wenger was soft on the players but Phillipe Senderos cried after a loss and never played for Arsenal again.

[Gray Fox]

Arsenal had us at arms length really until the touchline kick off. Brought the crowd back into it and with it, a bit of zip into the play.

After 1-0 they really melted down against the press.

[Offshore Toon]

Rio is the thickest bloke in football.

[-james-]

So then every teams xG stats should be worked out according to that team if it’s not about individual matches. Why does what Salah does impact Burnley’s xG?

It's a measure of how effective players (and by extension teams) are at kicking the ball the ball into the goal. That's all it is. Single game xG is occasionally descriptive but basically meaningless.

[phonics]

What player though? Isn’t the average player in like League One. It doesn’t work as a system.

[Kikó]

I don't think Ole is up to it. Shame the board can't see something obvious the useless cunts.

[Gray Fox]

Sergio Aguero is retiring because of his heart issue.

[-james-]

What player though? Isn’t the average player in like League One. It doesn’t work as a system.

The xG value for a given shot is based on historic data, different models use different datasets.

The value of an individual shot will have an error bar on it because the model can't know everything about it, but if you have a big enough sample for a team or player, you can come to some fairly straightforward insights like "Messi is 25% better at finishing than the average player".

What do you want from it for it to work? Like any metric, it comes with caveats and requires context for it to be meaningful.

[phonics]

But who is the average player that Messi is 25% better than. That’s my question. That’s the context that is missing from all this. That’s my point.

[Waffdon]

1462151113688371203

:D

Can't wait for the apology tweets.

It’s a troll account

[phonics]

Quincy proving my point by repeatedly posting obvious trolls and taking them as facts.

[-james-]

This is vastly oversimplifying but if Messi takes a shot that based on historical data has a 10% chance of resulting in a goal, he is 12.5% likely to score.

There isn't an average player, though the vast majority of players perform pretty close to expectation over long term. Aubameyang has 135 goals from shots that amount to 134 expected goals since 2014 so I suppose it could be him.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

But who is the average player that Messi is 25% better than. That’s my question. That’s the context that is missing from all this. That’s my point.

Mark Noble.

[phonics]

This is vastly oversimplifying but if Messi takes a shot that based on historical data has a 10% chance of resulting in a goal, he is 12.5% likely to score.

There isn't an average player, though the vast majority of players perform pretty close to expectation over long term. Aubameyang has 135 goals from shots that amount to 134 expected goals since 2014 so I suppose it could be him.

So the model IS per player not the average player. So Messi has a higher xG and is punished more for misses? Or does Messi scoring 50 goals a season hurt Ashley Barnes xG?

[Yevrah]

The model generates an average from all players, surely? Then people are individually compared to that average.

Whether it's necessary is one thing, but it seems to be fairly well put together.

[phonics]

Also isn’t a difference between 10 and 12% when you average 3-4 chances a game almost minuscule? It just seems like trying to turn soccer into baseball in a way that’s truly impossible.

[phonics]

The model generates an average from all players, surely? Then people are individually compared to that average.

Whether it's necessary is one thing, but it seems to be fairly well put together.

Where does the list of all players stop though? Is it just premier league? Is it Swedish second division?

[Yevrah]

Where does the list of all players stop though? Is it just premier league? Is it Swedish second division?

I don't know for sure, but if it should be based on the competition it's being used in. If it isn't, then, well.

[phonics]

I don't know for sure, but if it should be based on the competition it's being used in. If it isn't, then, well.

Exactly. None of my questions are an attack but nobody can answer the questions to make me think it’s not just nonsense.

[-james-]

Exactly. None of my questions are an attack but nobody can answer the questions to make me think it’s not just nonsense.

I've explained it fine, and it's hardly some underground secret that doesn't hasn't had a million explainers written on it on BBC sport. You just seem desperate to not understand it and/or not read my replies.


Also isn’t a difference between 10 and 12% when you average 3-4 chances a game almost minuscule? It just seems like trying to turn soccer into baseball in a way that’s truly impossible.

Where does the list of all players stop though? Is it just premier league? Is it Swedish second division?

I have already fielded both of these.

[phonics]

Your answer was different models use different data sets. When I see an xG number do you ever see the dataset reference listed?

[Shindig]

Sergio Aguero is retiring because of his heart issue.

That's a shame. At least it didn't rob him of his best years.

[-james-]

Your answer was different models use different data sets. When I see an xG number do you ever see the dataset reference listed?

Nah I've never seen that, but for the big ones like Opta and StatsBomb I suspect they have top 5 league data going back far enough to just be able to use that.

[phonics]

Lol a player just got sent off for a fan pushing him and not reacting to it. What a joke.

https://twitter.com/rd____19/status/1462086801527554049?s=21

[randomlegend]

I suspect they have top 5 league data going back far enough to just be able to use that.

So you have literally no idea what they use.

[phonics]

He answered all my questions already except all of them.

[-james-]

So you have literally no idea what they use.

It will all be on their websites somewhere. I've never cared to look it up in the same way I didn't google the ingredients of my covid jab. Fucking xG culture war man. It's fine if you find it a load of boring wank.

"Yeah but you don't really know what's in it do you?"

[phonics]

I was just replying to Boyd using it to say Arsenal were shit when they weren’t. It’s you who went culture war on it.

[randomlegend]

I've never cared to look it up in the same way I didn't google the ingredients of my covid jab.

That turned out well for you with transfermarkt.

[Kikó]

This is more boring than xG.

[-james-]

That turned out well for you with transfermarkt.

What was that about?

[mo]

Reports that Ole has gone...

1462186129491435522

[Don]

RL still doing football discussion. You gotta give it to the lad, great heart.

[Giggles]

Yep looking like they’ve finally done it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They won't have the first clue who to bring in, so expect lols.

[Giggles]

Brodgers would be hilarious on all counts.

[Yevrah]

They won't have the first clue who to bring in, so expect lols.

Express are going with Zidane. God only knows with that one.

[Yevrah]

Brodgers would be hilarious on all counts.

He probably counts as a good manager, but he's not good enough for Man Utd.

[Lewis]

Hopefully whoever decided he should have the month to turn it around goes as well.

[-james-]

I'd fucking love it if it was Zidane. They've got a crucial Champions League game in three days time followed by 10 games in the space of a month. Should be a laugh.

[SvN]

He probably counts as a good manager, but he's not good enough for Man Utd.

Fuck me, congratulations on finally working out the distinction.

Ten Hag is the only sensible choice, but that means we'll probably end up with another binman for the rest of the season. I've heard rumours of Darren Fletcher.

[Waffdon]

Man Utd will probably go on another random 15 game unbeaten run before turning shit again.

[Dquincy]

It’s a troll account

It's not though.

[Dquincy]

Quincy proving my point by repeatedly posting obvious trolls and taking them as facts.

Where did I say that it was taken as fact?

[Yevrah]

Fuck me, congratulations on finally working out the distinction.

Nope, not having that disingenuous attempt to misrepresent what I've been saying - You don't even want Steve Bruce in as a caretaker until the end of the season. If Rodgers was out of a job that'd be fine, because he's a good manager while Bruce isn't.

[Spikey M]

Nope, not having that disingenuous attempt to misrepresent what I've been saying - You don't even want Steve Bruce in as a caretaker until the end of the season. If Rodgers was out of a job that'd be fine, because he's a good manager while Bruce isn't.

Absolute bollocks. Loads of us want Bruce in. I'd give him 5 years and the keys to the city.

[Giggles]

Next job is to find buyers for Pogba and all the other wastes of space. Even more important than any manager.

[Yevrah]

Absolute bollocks. Loads of us want Bruce in. I'd give him 5 years and the keys to the city.

So would I, it'd be hilarious, because he isn't a good manager and, by all accounts, is a bit of a cunt as well.

[Giggles]

1000 games, can’t be bad.

[Yevrah]

Next job is to find buyers for Pogba and all the other wastes of space. Even more important than any manager.

Or a manager that actually knows what to do with him. None of these players are as bad as they've looked, I'll even admit that about Rashford, who I'd have out of the door in seconds.

[Gray Fox]

But does Zidanes wife want to live in Manchester? That’s the big question Twitter wants answering.

[Giggles]

Or a manager that actually knows what to do with him. None of these players are as bad as they've looked, I'll even admit that about Rashford, who I'd have out of the door in seconds.

You can’t do anything with someone that doesn’t give a fuck.

[Giggles]

But does Zidanes wife want to live in Manchester? That’s the big question Twitter wants answering.

I’m going to hazard a wild guess at No but for enough money she’d live under a bridge.

[Yevrah]

You can’t do anything with someone that doesn’t give a fuck.

He seems pretty decent for France.

Basically I'd give almost all of these players a chance under a manager who knew what he was doing. Sancho, for example, has looked like one of the worst £ for £ signings in all of human history and while I don't think he's the second coming, he's nowhere near as bad as the binman's made him seem.

[Dquincy]

More than one source now saying Ole has gone. Gutted. :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

Does Zidane speak English? With the range of thickos in that squad, he will need to.

Strikes me as buying a Rolex because you have cold wrists, which tbh is probably what many in football do do.

[Adramelch]

I don't think he does, no.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't think I've ever heard him speak except in Spanish (on TV when I was over there during his Madrid reign, I'm not a complete wanker) so I reckon it's a no. As such he will need to bring in, I dunno, Patrice Evra as his mouthpiece. I'd sign up for that.

[Gray Fox]

At this point, Cristiano Ronaldo needs introducing to Big Sam Football.

[Panda Bear]

wrote a reply to phonics many hours ago when he was asking about the average player. explained it. tagged james for fun.

never posted it by accident.

came back to find james dealing with phonics' inability to comprehend statistics to any basic level.

lol @ idea of xG modelers spending their time trying to find the world's most average professional player somewhere to base their models on

[Boydy]

I was just replying to Boyd using it to say Arsenal were shit when they weren’t. It’s you who went culture war on it.


https://youtu.be/cF44OPOEfYY

[Andy]

I was just replying to Boyd using it to say Arsenal were shit when they weren’t. It’s you who went culture war on it.

Arsenal were outplayed in every department, it could have been a cricket score. You have quality international players on your bench and you're trying to defend the performance. I would be fuming.

[Kikó]

The problem with Zidane (other than what Jim says) is it means Pogba will stay. Another year of that preening twat failing to deliver is a year too long.

United haven't got a clue or a strategy so they will probably ruin the good base from Ole with a manager who manages in a completely different style meaning they have to buy and sell for 3 years. Then they sack that person to start again.

[Giggles]

Managers hardly have any say in signings in this day and age do they? Surely that’s done at board level and not like FM.

[Kikó]

I think there must be something directional on the types of players still even if it's not always their first choice. For Solskjear, I'm not sure he was ever arsed about VDB but ended up having him in your squad.

Even still, if your leadership team have a clue the types of players they want outside "oh he's a big name'" then it's less of a problem.

[Andy]

Do United have a director of football yet? I remember Carl Anka banging on about that for ages and then the chat around it seemed to dissappear.

As you say the lack of direction is surely the issue.

[Giggles]

I never realised Newcastle had such a horrendous start until I seen Norwich weren't actually bottom.

[Kikó]

United don't have a DoF (unless that is what Fletcher was supposed to be)

[Ian]

Isn't that John Murtough fellow called the "Football Director"?

[niko_cee]

What are the general thoughts on Fernandes now? He seems to have been absolutely awful for the most part this season.