Lockdown Werewolf

[mugbull]

Well you can't say he's not defending himself

[Pepe]

Fuck me, I think that I rather vote Lofty over Byron, but I don't want to instigate a double lynch at this point. Byron is probably a good target at this point, mind.

Baz still seems to be getting away too easily with this.

[Spoonsky]

I have to say though that I'm also coming around to the idea of a double lynching, at least in concept if not this round. The single most important thing that can happen for the villagers is finding a wolf - after that, enough research on previous posts and voting patterns should give us some definite suspects. But until then we're basically groping in the dark. So I don't think increasing the odds of finding a wolf is such a bad thing even if it's at the risk of another villager.

[mugbull]

Fuck me, I think that I rather vote Lofty over Byron, but I don't want to instigate a double lynch at this point. Byron is probably a good target at this point, mind.

Baz still seems to be getting away too easily with this.

You dont think Baz is another Manc? To me that seems obvious

[Pepe]

You dont think Baz is another Manc? To me that seems obvious

Most likely, yes. But if he turned out to be a wolf (unlikely), at least he would give us a thread to follow. With Lofty and Byron, no matter what role they have, it feels like we will be back to square one. Plus, at least they are defending themselves while Baz has seemingly checked out.

[niko_cee]

Just looking at the choice between Byron and Lofty, it's a bit opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of voting (in some regards). Lofty has tended to get his votes in early - 5th, 4th and, admittedly, 13th in the last round. He has voted for P_3 (3rd vote), AD (1st vote) and Browning (5th vote). Only one of those has died and been shown to be a villager. Byron, on the other hand, plays his hand later - 21st and a completely dead vote for Don in R1, 23rd and an 8th vote for AD in R2 and 17th and a 4th vote for Pepe in R3 (R3 only had 19 votes whereas R2 had 30 with all the switching about). Again, 1 dead villager, but no one he has voted for has been lynched - although it looked like AD would be when he voted in R2. I'm not sure either pattern is more suspicious in isolation. Maybe Lofty? I dunno.

[igor_balis]

I have to say though that I'm also coming around to the idea of a double lynching, at least in concept if not this round. The single most important thing that can happen for the villagers is finding a wolf - after that, enough research on previous posts and voting patterns should give us some definite suspects. But until then we're basically groping in the dark. So I don't think increasing the odds of finding a wolf is such a bad thing even if it's at the risk of another villager.

Aye but double lynching and taking out two villagers wouldn't exactly be ideal. We don't have much to go on though, obviously. Feels a bit unnecessarily aggressive to me, but we might have to resort to it eventually.

[Spoonsky]

I would say in principle that voting later is more suspicious, as it's generally become more clear what's going to happen and therefore easier to choose a strategic head-covering vote.

[Spoonsky]

Aye but double lynching and taking out two villagers wouldn't exactly be ideal. We don't have much to go on though, obviously. Feels a bit unnecessarily aggressive to me, but we might have to resort to it eventually.

Of course it's not ideal, but neither is muddling along lynching villager after villager without getting an inch closer to any real idea of what's going on. I'll say it again, the only thing that will change this game is getting a wolf.

[ScousePig]

Voting later probably is more suspicious, but there are various reasons why this could be the case, and being able to change your vote throws a spanner in the works of the theory to begin with.

[niko_cee]

I would say in principle that voting later is more suspicious, as it's generally become more clear what's going to happen and therefore easier to choose a strategic head-covering vote.

Only if it is non-decisive. Voting late risks having to be decisive. You could say Byron obviated that in R1 by going for Don, but the vote in R2 was to kill AD at the time. I suppose, were Byron to be proven a wolf it would make AD less likely to be one. R3 again was a bit of a dead one as Pepe wasn't really in the race.

There's also the issue of not voting at all *ahem*.

[igor_balis]

Voting later probably is more suspicious, but there are various reasons why this could be the case, and being able to change your vote throws a spanner in the works of the theory to begin with.

Exactly, you could argue voting later is wolfish because it allows them to see how the day's votes have gone first, but you could just as easily make a case that it would make sense for wolves to get their votes in early to avoid suspicion.

Voting patterns aren't perfect, but I'd say that tracking the who rather than the when is going to be more useful.

[igor_balis]

Speaking of which, anyone got a decent spreadsheet?

[mugbull]

I said i was going to make one to compete with Taz's but ive realized theres no way i have the energy for it

[niko_cee]

I started working from the one Baz posted up but it seemed to have a few errors in it. :sherlock:

I do have one but it's a work in progress and I'm not completely convinced of its accuracy at the moment.

I don't think there's much to be read into the voting. Byron being a wolf would go some way to convincing me AD isn't one. And maybe the same for Lofty and Browning, although to a lesser extent. Lofty's defence of himself is swaying me at the moment.

[Boydy]

Current standings:

Byron - 6
Baz - 3
Pepe - 2
Lofty - 4

4 left to vote

An hour and a half left.

[thommo]

Who hasn’t voted yet? Be interesting to see if there are any late swings here.

[Browning]

Well, I'm guessing Bruh is one of them.

[niko_cee]

Also note that our neighbour goes against the accepted wisdom that double lynches are risky for the village by advocating them repeatedly, although is not quite as sold on the idea now it is his neck in the noose!

At best he makes one throwaway comment about chucking Bruh into a lynching as well (probably not the worst idea) and a much stronger post against the concept.

Fake news.

[Pepe]

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

The voting patterns are hardly a slam dunk, but I'd say his look a little bit more dubious.

[Adramelch]

Bruh, niko and Baz left to vote I believe?

[igor_balis]

Is Bruh still with us?

[Byron]

Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.

[Byron]

The problem is that this leaves me in a quandary. If I go impassioned then it looks a little 'doth protest too much'

Have I been palying badly? Yeah. But lets not forget that my only defence of a multiple lynch was when the other option was Bruh. Hardly the sharpest tool in the shed.

Indeed, may I draw your attention to;


Can't imagine we're seriously talking double lynches as a strategy? The more rounds we get the more we can analyse voting patterns.

As I recall once we find a wolf, the others fall reasonably quickly as you can then look back through previous rounds. We just need that first hit.


Mahow - Manc - Browning - 7om - Bruhnaldo- AyDee

Bruh was my first choice on account of being a nutter but I'm reluctant to have a hand in a triple lynch so let's put someone ahead.

Indeed, there's something of a pattern here. Lofty comes in with a defence that amounts to 'Byron advocated a mutli lynch once, kill him!' Indeed, he seems to be multi-quoting me in the hope that by data-dumping, people go along with him rather than actually looking at the posts.

Then, in the space on an hour, two people vote me, to take me above Lofty. If that doesn't stink of co-ordination then I don't know what does.

I'm not saying that all three are wolves, but I'm coming round to the idea of Lofty and Spoon being wolves, with Pepe strung along for the ride (and probably looking at the opportunity to off me for nominating him)

If I'm a non-wolf, you know your next targets. Obviously I'd love to stay alive, but it may be too little, too late for me.

[Spikey M]

Vote change from Pepe to

Lofty

The man has convinced me.

[Byron]

My man :cool:

[Boydy]

Byron - 7
Lofty - 5
Baz - 3
Pepe - 1

Still to vote - 3

[Pepe]

Should I. :henn0rz:

[7om]

I'm tempted.

[Pepe]

If you do, I do.

[Byron]

Should I. :henn0rz:

*Insert image of Trump saying 'I love Hispanics'!*

[Vercetti]

This could be Byron's Istanbul.

[Pepe]

We could always go for the double...

[Spikey M]

The tension...:drool:

[Pepe]

Time left? I am going for lunch now, so I leave it in hands of my competent villagers. :uhoh:

[Lofty]

The only pattern is Byron jumps in late to vote, often in dead rubbers. The most decisive thing he has done in over a thousand posts in this thread is try to stitch me up. That stinks far more than people voting for him.

[Spoonsky]

I change my vote from Byron to

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

Now I see Byron and Lofty as equally likely or unlikely; and I've given my reasoning for a double lynch above. If anyone disagrees with me, there's still three votes who can tip the scales, so don't accuse me of trying to pull off a double at the very last second.

[niko_cee]

I think Lofty is more suspicious, marginally.

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

[Spoonsky]

Oof.

Who's left to vote?

[Pepe]

:drool:

[Byron]

The only pattern is Byron jumps in late to vote, often in dead rubbers. The most decisive thing he has done in over a thousand posts in this thread is try to stitch me up. That stinks far more than people voting for him.

As the most decisive thing you've done is isolate one post as evidence of me wanting multiple lynches.

Die wolf scum.

[thommo]

Late tension :drool: Jim White is smiling somewhere, in his yellow tie.

[Waffdon]

Gutting if someone doesn’t make the double lynch happen

[Baz]

Who's left to vote?Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

[niko_cee]

So that's 7-7 now yeah?

Not good.

[Spikey M]

Ffs baz

[thommo]

What the fuck Baz? Mass change to get him lynched, anyone?

[Byron]

Talk about sticking your head above the fucking parapet.

[niko_cee]

Could it be engineered?

I will try to switch to avoid a double, although I can't guarantee it won't end up in a complete clusterfuck if other people have the same idea.

[Adramelch]

Vote change from Byron to:

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

Both to avoid a double and because Baz has contributed nothing but confusion to the game so far.

Byron - 6
Lofty - 7
Baz - 4
Pepe - 1

If I'm not mistaken.

[Spikey M]

If one of these 2 isn't a wolf (assuming someone doesn't save one of them) the Baz dies. Then AyDee.

[Baz]

Lame.

Should’ve waited til 7:59, but ehh gotta WoW.

[Lofty]

Another waste of a round, you fucking clowns.

[Byron]

If one of these 2 isn't a wolf (assuming someone doesn't save one of them) the Baz dies. Then AyDee.

Agreed on Baz. I can't believe anyone would be that stupid, but it is Baz.

[Adramelch]

I think he's a villager who wants to stir shit up, but we're better off without him anyway.

[Spoonsky]

Yeah, I think Baz is just apathetic and trying to troll. Easy enough to ignore him going forward.

I have some regrets about switching to Lofty as ultimately I still suspect Byron over him.

[AyDee]

Baz is one of the most likely to be a villager imo. Think he just doesn't care.

Make the double happen.

[Boydy]

Lofty - 7
Byron - 6
Baz - 4
Pepe - 1

[Pepe]

Vote change from Byron to:

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty


Because he is a cunt.

[Spikey M]

Twitchy bum time

[SvN]

This should be good.

[Byron]

Yeah, I think Baz is just apathetic and trying to troll. Easy enough to ignore him going forward.

I have some regrets about switching to Lofty as ultimately I still suspect Byron over him.

The problem is once you're nominated once, it starts the death spiral as you come under a lot of suspicion. Lofty may well be a villager but I needed to defend myself and his logic was shaky.

[Boydy]

Voting closed

[AyDee]

Lofty being a Seer in 3, 2, 1...

[Boydy]

Final scores:
Lofty - 7
Baz - 5
Byron - 5
Pepe - 1

[Boydy]

Lofty has been lynched by the village.


He was a wolf.

[Spikey M]

Yesssssss

[niko_cee]

AD and Baz do seem to be bang up for a double . . .

[Lofty]

Peace out meatbags :D

[Pepe]

:rave:

[Byron]

BOOM. HEADSHOT

Caps.

[thommo]

:drool:

That late Baz nomination for Byron further piles on the suspicion now.

[Adramelch]

Imagine if Baz is a seer, he knows both Byron and Lofty are wolves and we just messed it up for him. :D

[Spikey M]

Baz has some splainin to do.

[Pepe]

Imagine if Baz is a seer, he knows both Byron and Lofty are wolves and we just messed it up for him. :D

I definitely wouldn't leave Byron off the hook just yet.

[Boydy]

It's night time. Better be careful out there.

[Byron]

Baz is a prize idiot but that might be his gameplan.

Also not convinced by Spoon. His vote change would be a good way for a clever wolf to guarantee themselves immunity for a few rounds if they saw the way the wind was blowing. Risky as fuck strategy wise though.

[Spoonsky]

I have some regrets about switching to Lofty as ultimately I still suspect Byron over him.

:D / :face:

[Boydy]

The wolves have struck.

AyDee was their victim.


He was a villager.

[Spoonsky]

That is massive. Should be able to comb through vote records from here and see who was trying to save Lofty. Or just kill Baz.

[Pepe]

I think the 'Baz is a seer' thread is worth pursuing.

[Spoonsky]

Interesting to kill AD considering we were also considering lynching him. They're really just going for the quietest members, aren't they?

[Pepe]

Interesting to kill AD considering we were also considering lynching him. They're really just going for the quietest members, aren't they?

That's their big slip up. They are ON THE ROPES.

[Spikey M]

The wolves killing one of our prime targets for us there. Cheers Fido.

[niko_cee]

Hardly mind blowing but an odd choice.

I feel less bad about switching from him to Mahow now.

[Boydy]

Nominations are open again, obvs. I'll close them at 1pm again tomorrow with voting go on after that until 8pm.

[Spoonsky]

Baz is a prize idiot but that might be his gameplan.

Also not convinced by Spoon. His vote change would be a good way for a clever wolf to guarantee themselves immunity for a few rounds if they saw the way the wind was blowing. Risky as fuck strategy wise though.

Without that vote change you'd have been lynched instead of Lofty. There's no guarantee we would have gone for Lofty next round either if he'd escaped. It would be a pretty suicidal move for a wolf.

[Pepe]

I think the 'Baz is a seer' thread is worth pursuing.

If we were to kill Byron and he is a wolf, then that would be great. If he is a villager, then we kill Baz next.

Any major issues with that plan?

[Byron]

I might have one issue.

[Spoonsky]

That's an interesting thought. There's this as well:


Get ready to see this and roll your eyes into oblivion:AyDee (villager)

If it was Mahow, however.

I'm a gonner though, lads. It's been fun.

(Save me, doc!)

Which has just been vindicated.

[Byron]

Without that vote change you'd have been lynched instead of Lofty. There's no guarantee we would have gone for Lofty next round either if he'd escaped. It would be a pretty suicidal move for a wolf.

But if it paid off then you could basically go through the game relying on that as a defence.

I'm just saying we can't discount you yet.

[Spoonsky]

But if it paid off then you could basically go through the game relying on that as a defence.

I'm just saying we can't discount you yet.

Clearly not, given you're already calling me up on it :D

[Adramelch]

I nominate Vercetti (first nomination).

I'll get my nomination in early this time around as I will again probably miss the deadline tomorrow.

In a nutshell, Vercetti has been active enough to not raise suspicions, but without really offering much to the table. Mostly nominating and voting. In fact, now that we know Lofty was a wolf, their behavior was quite similar. Also, his response to Taz's death was:


I didn't expect Taz to go yet. Another one that adds value to the game, whether you like his style or not. :(

which to me seems a bit like he's trying hard to convince us he's a villager.

[niko_cee]

I'm struggling to get my head around the wolves going for AD. We've come so close to lynching him twice, he kept advocating double lynches, he just seemed to be someone suspicion was going to be directed at. Am I missing something?

I would somewhat echo the idea of Byron not being above suspicion (who is etc). I was very close to voting for him myself, and was only swayed by Lofty's duplicitous fake news defence. He seems to be hiding his votes late on, where Lofty was hiding them early. As I said when I tried to analyze them, there wasn't much to separate them. Also he said that thing about lynching Bruh regardless of whether his mad musings on Mahow were true or false.

[Spikey M]

Ok, so Baz is interesting. But Baz is also Baz. Was that a deliberate attempt at a double lynching because he knows something, or was he just trying to troll?

Byron throwing Lofty under the bus gives him a pass as far as any wolf suspicion from me. Unless it was all for show? They must have known one of them was going? Did they manufacture a little rivalry to shift suspicion away from the other when one of them died? Am I paranoid? I've just closed my curtains and double locked the door anyway.

Has Jimmy gone quiet since eyes were turned on him? Something is up there, and I was expecting the wolves to nibble on him tonight. They didn't and...

I nominate Jimmy (First Nomination)

[thommo]

Just went back through the thread and in AD's little paragraph where he assumed SvN was a seer ( :D ), he calls out Browning. Now I had some suspicions of him the night before and nominated him but he managed to survive - I think it's worth revisiting that avenue. I know it would be pretty stupid for Browning and his wolf posse to just off someone who has clearly called you out, but he could be hoping to hide in plain sight.

I nominate Browning (first nomination).

[Spoonsky]

And there's a chance that Baz is the seer.

edit: this was at @niko, fuck you guys sneaking in there

[Pepe]

I nominate Byron (first nomination).

I know Baz is a weird one, but we cannot discount the possibility that he knew something.

[7om]

Can anyone with a spreadsheet now go back and look who avoided voting for Lofty or voted for him when it was obvious he wasn’t going to die? Let’s use this information wisely now and not get too many up on the ballot.

[Spoonsky]

Ok, having analyzed the votes in the last round, I have some observations:

1) Igor, Jimmy and Browning made early, against-the-tide votes for Lofty when others (Baz, Byron, Pepe) were leading the vote. Without those votes Lofty would probably never have been eventually lynched. Unless there's some deep, deep con happening, I'd saw we could put these three above suspicion for the time being.

2) When Byron voted for Lofty, the score was Byron 5, Baz 3, Lofty 3. If he was trying to save himself at that point, then it would have been equally useful to vote for either Baz and Lofty. To be honest, given Baz's popularity, at the time that might have seemed like a more likely escape. The fact that Byron chose to vote for Lofty instead of Baz was a key turning point in Lofty's eventual lynching. That, to me, is strong evidence in favor of Byron's innocence. Counterweighing this evidence is the possibility that Baz is a seer.

3) Spikey made a key vote change from Pepe to Lofty, when Byron was leading by three votes at the time. Whether he intended it or not, this precipitated the Istanbul-like comeback, which followed when I (the Didi Hamman of Werewolf) changed from Byron to Lofty, and Niko then voted Lofty to put him one vote ahead. Therefore I'd say that, while not ruling anyone out entirely, Spikey, Niko and I have pretty good evidence in our favor, in that those votes were decisive to lynching Lofty.

4) The same could be said of Adra and Pepe, who both switched from Byron to Baz after Baz had voted to make it a tie. These votes ultimately led to Lofty's lynching, although it's difficult to say whether they were motivated more by frustration with Baz or suspicion of Pepe. In Pepe's favor, he had declared himself suspicious of Lofty well before this change.

The names in bold all played a part in lynching Lofty. I'd say, at first glance, that we'd be wiser to look elsewhere for now.

[Spoonsky]

In the spirit of open source, here's the heavily detailed data analysis I've been working on:

https://i.imgur.com/fxK2izz.png

Initially I'd say we could look at Thommo and Pleb as voting in an early bloc with Lofty; the early votes of 7om, Mokbull, Vercetti, and especially Scouse don't look great either, but it's not quite rock solid evidence.

[Adramelch]

Just to be honest: I voted for Byron and would have stayed at Byron. Changed my vote to Baz to avoid a double. Two reasons why I didn't change to Lofty: 1) It would make the score 6-8 which means that a simultaneous opposite switch would tie it again and 2) well Baz trying to fuck things up.

TL;DR: If Baz wasn't Baz I would have kept my vote for Byron, as I was none the wiser who it could be among the 4. So I am not sure my part in lynching Lofty (or anyone who played a similar role, like Pepe) should absolve us of suspicion.

[Spoonsky]

I'd look at Scouse most closely because he decided to vote for Byron just when Lofty had drawn level with him on votes; a potential wolf-saving vote that in fact started a movement toward Byron and away from Lofty. On the other hand, his activity has been pretty solid and he even said at one point that Lofty and Byron were interchangeable for him (which, honestly, I felt the same), so I'll hold off nominating for now.

[Adramelch]

On the other hand, his activity has been pretty solid

That means nothing really. Surely the wolves will be mixing it up, instead of all of them following the same strategy.

[Jimmy Floyd]

First of all, you wolfie fucks: have some of that, you cunts.

Now, there are some intriguing options for the next round which have been gone over well by others, but for my own part, I said during the last round that we need to be highly suspicious of anyone coming out after me. All I've done all game is bait the furry fucks and now, as predicted, their situation has turned and they need me gone. However, they obviously haven't got the balls to do it themselves and expose who they are, so they're absolutely gasping for the village to do it for them. The village needs to be careful not to be this stupid and fall into their trap. Speaking of which:


Ok, so Baz is interesting. But Baz is also Baz. Was that a deliberate attempt at a double lynching because he knows something, or was he just trying to troll?

Byron throwing Lofty under the bus gives him a pass as far as any wolf suspicion from me. Unless it was all for show? They must have known one of them was going? Did they manufacture a little rivalry to shift suspicion away from the other when one of them died? Am I paranoid? I've just closed my curtains and double locked the door anyway.

Has Jimmy gone quiet since eyes were turned on him? Something is up there, and I was expecting the wolves to nibble on him tonight. They didn't and...

I nominate Jimmy (First Nomination)

He's been after me for a few rounds and now he's dunked the nomination in early with no justification other than 'Something is up there', and 'eyes were turned on him' which I'm not sure they actually were. As he will notice, in the last round, I both nominated and then cast an early vote for our first wolf. Your stinking, canine honour, I rest my case.

I nominate Spikey (first nomination)

[igor_balis]

Byron - Baz - Pepe - Lofty

I'm torn between thinking jimmy is acting weird because

A he's lost his mind

B he's a wolf

C He KNOWS THINGS

Gonna give him the benefit of the doubt and go with C for now. As good a reason as any.


First of all, you wolfie fucks: have some of that, you cunts.

Now, there are some intriguing options for the next round which have been gone over well by others, but for my own part, I said during the last round that we need to be highly suspicious of anyone coming out after me. All I've done all game is bait the furry fucks and now, as predicted, their situation has turned and they need me gone. However, they obviously haven't got the balls to do it themselves and expose who they are, so they're absolutely gasping for the village to do it for them. The village needs to be careful not to be this stupid and fall into their trap. Speaking of which:



He's been after me for a few rounds and now he's dunked the nomination in early with no justification other than 'Something is up there', and 'eyes were turned on him' which I'm not sure they actually were. As he will notice, in the last round, I both nominated and then cast an early vote for our first wolf. Your stinking, canine honour, I rest my case.

I nominate Spikey (first nomination)

Definitely on C now.

I second the nomination of Spikey

[Spoonsky]

One reason the wolves would have to kill AD is that he seconded the nomination of Lofty. Jimmy was the first.

I think Jimmy's pretty well beyond suspicion at this point and might even be the seer; although the fact that Spikey was also crucial to lynching Lofty complicates things slightly.

[Spoonsky]

You know what, I'm fully on board the Spikey train. Why the fuck would you nominate Jimmy one round after he nominated the only wolf we've got so far?

It's a chance to test Jimmy's bravado too.

[Spoonsky]

We're all writing off Jimmy's odd behaviour but it's definitely a game strategy, I just can't tell if he is trying to tell us something or is double bluffing us.

That's an interesting post for the archives.

[Spikey M]

First of all, you wolfie fucks: have some of that, you cunts.

Now, there are some intriguing options for the next round which have been gone over well by others, but for my own part, I said during the last round that we need to be highly suspicious of anyone coming out after me. All I've done all game is bait the furry fucks and now, as predicted, their situation has turned and they need me gone. However, they obviously haven't got the balls to do it themselves and expose who they are, so they're absolutely gasping for the village to do it for them. The village needs to be careful not to be this stupid and fall into their trap. Speaking of which:



He's been after me for a few rounds and now he's dunked the nomination in early with no justification other than 'Something is up there', and 'eyes were turned on him' which I'm not sure they actually were. As he will notice, in the last round, I both nominated and then cast an early vote for our first wolf. Your stinking, canine honour, I rest my case.

I nominate Spikey (first nomination)

Had spoon posted his last 2 posts before my nomination, I wouldn't have nominated you. But nobody likes a revenge nomination Jim. Rude.

Anyway, I won't be voting for you. But you are being odd. Are you playing a character for the game? Are we supposed to be? Can In be Danny Dyer?

That's Dyer, Not Dire. Stand down.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That's an interesting post for the archives.

An interesting post which demonstrates they are running not only scared, but fucking TERRIFIED.

[Spikey M]

You know what, I'm fully on board the Spikey train. Why the fuck would you nominate Jimmy one round after he nominated the only wolf we've got so far?

It's a chance to test Jimmy's bravado too.

Because I'm not keeping track of that. He's being odd and that stood out to me.

[mugbull]

Now, there are some intriguing options for the next round which have been gone over well by others, but for my own part, I said during the last round that we need to be highly suspicious of anyone coming out after me.

I second Jimmy

I'm suspicious of anyone trying to control the narrative, which you definitely are. Fair play, you nominated the wolf. If you are a wolf, that's a big risk, but it's not a get out of jail free card. You've played this game enough (I'm guessing) to be confident in whatever role you have, including that of the wolf-come-villager father figure. It seems to me the only way the wolves can possibly win this game is if (a) you don't find a wolf until near the end of the game, or (b) one wolf has gained so much trust among the villagers that it wouldn't occur to anyone to off them, even at the very end. I still think we came close to catching a wolf in the leadup to the SvN kill and you decided at that point to go with (b).

Spikey is acting completely normally given how he typically posts. You're the wild card.

[Adramelch]

He nominated Lofty and voted for him to make it 2-2 when he could as easily have voted for Byron and create a bandwagon. I am not saying he's above suspicion, but we can afford to let him be for a while before reassessing the situation, especially since you'd think the seer(s) will get to investigating him sooner rather than later.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Mokbull's name vill also go on ze list.

Wolves are too scared to kill me at night as it would incriminate them, so they went for my seconder AD instead, hoping he would be the seer (RIP AD you're with the angels now). They need me off the game but they need the village to do it for them, luckily the village aren't as dense as the wolves need them to be.

You're right that I consciously changed my gameplay after the SvN death, but you think I'd do that because I was a wolf? lol. Wolves were cruising it at that point, or would have thought they were.

[mugbull]

Mokbull's name vill also go on ze list.

Wolves are too scared to kill me at night as it would incriminate them, so they went for my seconder AD instead, hoping he would be the seer (RIP you're with the angels now). They need me off the game but they need the village to do it for them, luckily the village aren't as dense as the wolves need them to be.

You're right that I consciously changed my gameplay after the SvN death, but you think I'd do that because I was a wolf? lol. Wolves were cruising it at that point, or would have thought they were.

Why would the wolves not kill you off at night? This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have a ready-made explanation for why you're never going to get killed by them

[Jimmy Floyd]

Why would the wolves not kill you off at night? This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have a ready-made explanation for why you're never going to get killed by them

And as for the second part of my genius plan, nominate (as the first nomination in the whole round, might I add) and then vote for a confirmed wolf? I mean, if you're going to put that forward as a wolf-identiying theory we might as well just all leave some raw bacon under our doormats and see who looks fat in the next round of mugshots.

As a wolf, after 5/6 (?) innocent deaths from the start of the game I wouldn't need to take that risk, I'd just carry on chin-stroking and picking them off one by one, maybe chucking in a few red herring votes to keep the group scattered, but nothing as ludicrous as what you're suggesting.

[AyDee]

Make me proud lads.

[mugbull]

And as for the second part of my genius plan, nominate (as the first nomination in the whole round, might I add) and then vote for a confirmed wolf? I mean, if you're going to put that forward as a wolf-identiying theory we might as well just all leave some raw bacon under our doormats and see who looks fat in the next round of mugshots.

As a wolf, after 5/6 (?) innocent deaths from the start of the game I wouldn't need to take that risk, I'd just carry on chin-stroking and picking them off one by one, maybe chucking in a few red herring votes to keep the group scattered, but nothing as ludicrous as what you're suggesting.

Ludicrous :D

If you can tell we're going to lynch a wolf or two in the next couple rounds anyway, it's hardly "ludicrous"

[Spoonsky]

Why would the wolves not kill you off at night? This is exactly what I'm talking about, you have a ready-made explanation for why you're never going to get killed by them

Killing off a vocal seer is always a risk; plus, they might have assumed he'd be protected that night the way he was going on.

Jimmy's basically right, it would be crazy for the wolves to chuck one of their own onto the fire when everything else was going so smoothly. And as for being suspicious of anyone controlling the narrative: did you forget that the seers exist? They can't just hide behind silence forever.

[Spoonsky]

If you can tell we're going to lynch a wolf or two in the next couple rounds anyway, it's hardly "ludicrous"

There'd be no way to tell that though. You can't even predict who's going to get lynched when the votes are halfway through in this game, yet alone who's getting lynched tomorrow.

[niko_cee]

Looking at Lofty's voting record, I think the only really interesting thing is the vote he cast for Browning in R3. R1 was an easy villager early (P_3), he nominated and voted early for AyDee in R2, another villager and in R3 he voted for Browning when the vote was 4-5-1-0 between Manc, Browning and whoever else was up (Pepe and Bruh). Jimmy had just changed from Browning to take him from a 3 vote lead (6-3) to a single vote (5-4) between him and Manc. In those circumstances I cannot imagine a wolf knowingly voting for another wolf to put them back ahead by 2. It would be needlessly reckless when you could easily tie it at 5-5 (knowing Manc wasn't a wolf) and no one seemed to have any strong views. From that I am of the opinion that Browning isn't a wolf

I would be interested to know if a few more wolves might not have snuck a vote in for either Browning or Manc early, under the hypothesis of them both being villagers, particularly focusing on anyone who then didn't vote for Lofty when he was on the block.

Unfortunately this is where this get less clear as there a quite a few candidates.

7om, Thommo, Pepe, Mugbull, Baz and AyDee all voted for Browning before Lofty. None of them voted for Lofty.

Vercetti, Spikey and Adra voted for Manc, with only Spikey voting for Lofty (as a vote change).

Now there is a problem in thinking there a couple of wolves in there as it's probably half the fucking field. But it's where I'm working from at the moment.

Hark, more posts.

[mugbull]

I don't think Jimmy's a seer. At least, I don't think he has the seer role. Whether he sees things beyond that, I don't know. He could be a villager just like anyone we nominate, but if he is a wolf, the only way he's ever going to survive and not be forced to play like Lofty is by doing exactly that.

I guess it does all hinge on whether you think a wolf would nominate + vote for another wolf. If you truly don't think that could happen given the state of the game last round, then fair play. I disagree

[niko_cee]

In a world where Jimmy was a wolf I think it is much more likely that, were they to use that type of strategy (nominate and vote out of not much), it would be him that would be nominated. He would have to imagine the seers are going to be interested in him as a 'brand name poster' so unless they were to fluke the seer (or seers) out early doors he wouldn't be getting to the end.

[Jimmy Floyd]

'Brand name poster', that's getting printed on the side of my Octavia.

[niko_cee]

I'd love to take the credit but someone else used it (I think in this thread) first.

My further quantum crunching has decided I am now most suspicious of Vercetti and 7om, both got an early vote in on Browning (2nd vote for him,4th overall) and Manc (2nd vote for him, 9th overall) respectively and then voted Byron early in the Lofty round before getting the fuck out.

Thommo also put an early vote in on Browning, but he did nominate him, and he voted for Baz when the Byron train was leaving the station. Muggers not above suspicion as well, given his Jimmy nomination and general record.

Some of the other suspects have indulged in the sort of mad shit I wouldn't associate with a wolf - being part of that Mahow madness (Pepe), Adra made a clever switch to avoid the chance of an easy double last time and I feel he is on the level, Spikey had a late switch to Lofty.

[Pepe]

I'd be ok with Vercetti and/or Zom as candidates. With that said, I hope that we do not ignore the whole Baz/Byron thing.

[niko_cee]

Maybe we should say that if Baz wants to nominate Byron, then Baz should nominate Byron?

[niko_cee]

I'd completely missed the fact that Thommo has nominated Browning AGAIN.

He must really not like that guy. He's firmly back in the alarm bells category.

The current slate of candidates looks pretty dreadful, so this doesn't promise to be a great round, imo.

I'm going to second Vercetti (1st nomination Adra).

[Browning]

Niko is thinking very much along the same lines as me with some of those names there. I would be happy to see an assortment of them up for the next vote. The only ones I wouldn't vote for would be Pepe (since nominating him I've come to the conclusion that he wouldn't have been stupid enough to change votes the way he did and draw attention to himself) and Baz (he is, almost certainly, the village idiot and nothing more).

I don't have a spreadsheet, but those who piled on me/Mahow early as well as those who didn't help us kill Lofty would be where I look. Anyone who ticks 2 out of 3 of those boxes has got to be worth hearing a defense from.

[ScousePig]

I'd look at Scouse most closely because he decided to vote for Byron just when Lofty had drawn level with him on votes; a potential wolf-saving vote that in fact started a movement toward Byron and away from Lofty. On the other hand, his activity has been pretty solid and he even said at one point that Lofty and Byron were interchangeable for him (which, honestly, I felt the same), so I'll hold off nominating for now.

That's about right. I nominated Byron early doors and then followed up on it by voting for him too. In both the nominations and voting stages I said my reasoning for Byron could just as easily apply to Lofty. I would have probably nominated Lofty instead of Byron this morning if someone else hadn't beaten me to it.

[thommo]

I've nominated him again because he was on my radar early and got away with it when in the vote with Manc, in my eyes. Manc was clearly not interested and so the village decided to get rid of the inactive, but I think Browning got away easy there.

He did vote for Lofty last round, but AD brought up some suspicions with him before he was eaten by the wolves, and it just made me wonder. Hence the nomination.

Edit: In response to niko.

[Adramelch]

I don't know, I'm still behind my hunch on Vercetti. I am of course working with limited evidence, but something just strikes me weird with his posting patterns.

On the Baz/Byron thing: Would a seer in exchange for a wolf be seen as a favourable trade from the wolves' perspective? Because if so, in the event that Byron is a wolf, surely they'd have killed Baz? If it's not seen as a favourable trade of course, they wouldn't because that would lead to Byron getting lynched.

[niko_cee]

I don't have a spreadsheet, but those who piled on me/Mahow early as well as those who didn't help us kill Lofty would be where I look. Anyone who ticks 2 out of 3 of those boxes has got to be worth hearing a defense from.

Mugbull is your man by this criteria. 3rd vote for Mahow (3rd vote to be cast as the first 3 all went to him), 4th vote for you (6th vote cast), nominated and voted for Pepe last time (1st vote, 2nd overall).

[Jimmy Floyd]

I nominated Browning in the second round, and initially voted for him, but he put up a very convincing defence so I switched my vote to Manc. As niko pointed out, there's no way Lofty is going to open up a vote lead for Browning if he's a wolf when Manc is there. They probably looked at the two players, thought Browning would be the stronger asset to the village and tried to get him gone.

They failed, of course, because they are fucking useless.

[ScousePig]

I second Jimmy

I'm suspicious of anyone trying to control the narrative, which you definitely are. Fair play, you nominated the wolf. If you are a wolf, that's a big risk, but it's not a get out of jail free card. You've played this game enough (I'm guessing) to be confident in whatever role you have, including that of the wolf-come-villager father figure. It seems to me the only way the wolves can possibly win this game is if (a) you don't find a wolf until near the end of the game, or (b) one wolf has gained so much trust among the villagers that it wouldn't occur to anyone to off them, even at the very end. I still think we came close to catching a wolf in the leadup to the SvN kill and you decided at that point to go with (b).

Spikey is acting completely normally given how he typically posts. You're the wild card.

That's a wolf-suspicious post if I ever saw one. Bricking it.

[Browning]

Mugbull is your man by this criteria. 3rd vote for Mahow (3rd vote to be cast as the first 3 all went to him), 4th vote for you (6th vote cast), nominated and voted for Pepe last time (1st vote, 2nd overall).

Thank you.

I nominate Mugbull- 1st nomination

Honestly I was fairly sure that was who it was anyway from skimming the thread earlier, but Niko doing the leg work helps. Him going for Jimmy after he served up Lofty's head on a platter just seals the deal.

[Spoonsky]

The amount of detective work on this page alone :drool:

This game gets approximately 100x better once you get the first wolf.

[Spoonsky]

I second the nomination of Mugbull

For his voting history detailed above (good work fellas) and for his borderline conspiratorial pursuit of Jimmy.

[Byron]

So that means we have Spikey, Mugball, Jimmy and Vercetti up for voting.

Meanwhile Browning and I have one nomination but not a second.

I can only assume the killing of AyDee was to force suspicion on people who have been vocal for his lynching because there were far better targets, whether you wanted to off a quieter one (Pleb or Vercetti would have fit that bill) or off someone who's been active (like Jimmy or Niko). Looking through the thread for comments on AyDee, there's a lot of people who have suggested killing him but no-one who has been pushing hard to kill him. Looking through;


AyDee was going until both Niko and Pepe came in and changed their votes to Mahow, both of whom also provided a half-arsed 'let's not double lynch' tale. It was a bit odd. The problem is you wouldn't expect both of them to do more or less the same thing at the same time.

I nominate niko_cee.


A couple of things:

- Baz openly defended AD. While I do not want to pursue either of them right now, I think we need to keep that in mind.

- We should make a list of people who voted for both P_3 and Mahow. We are guaranteed to have a wolf or two in there. If no one steps up, I might give it a try later.


Having looked into it, here are the names that came out:

Don
AyDee
Pepe
niko

Now, I know I am innocent, so there is that. AyDee could claim to have been trying to save his arse, since he was on the chopping block on both occasions. That leaves us with Don and niko.

Then we have his further vote for me when it was 6-4 to me, which was only 51 minutes after Spoon voted. That would have probably been it for me had I not decided to start defending myself.

I nominate Pepe (first nomination)

[Jimmy Floyd]

Regards AD, I reckon they went for him because they feared he might be the seer, has anyone looked into other nominations/votes of his?

[niko_cee]

I think he only nominated once (Pepe R1) and voted for P_3, 7om/Mahow, Browning and Lofty. Might be wrong on the nomination bit though.

I can't see anything alarming in those facts alone, although he may have said things which spooked them. I still find it an odd choice.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I also don't know why (as the seer) you'd be looking to investigate Lofty - if it were me I'd have done the most active players first like Taz, me, niko, Spikey etc to build a picture.

Everything points to the wolfy wolves being morons. We've got them rope-a-doping already.

[mugbull]

I knew I'd get put on the list with that post.

If our strategy is purely to relitigate old votes, then:
- I voted for Browning despite nominating Manc because I came around to the idea that Manc was a jaded villager and Browning was the next best option there.
- I didn't vote for Lofty because at this point, after the previous round, I became highly suspicious of Pepe, and still am - though it appears (with a couple exceptions) that no one is interested in putting him on the list again, which is a mistake imo.

My intent in nominating Jimmy was to at least start a discussion about him, when it seemed like everyone bar Spikey had reached the conclusion that he is untouchable. That can't happen and it looks like nobody is taking the idea seriously. If we're basing our suspicions entirely around level 1 voting patterns then the wolves are going to win, because all they need to do is vote for themselves every now and then and we're just going to keep lynching villagers who deviated from crowd prescriptions

[Browning]

There’s a difference between:
1) a wolf voting for another wolf and
2) a wolf chucking a wolf to his death when he has come under zero suspicion whatsoever and the town haven’t got a single clue to go on.

[mugbull]

There’s a difference between:
1) a wolf voting for another wolf and
2) a wolf chucking a wolf to his death when he has come under zero suspicion whatsoever and the town haven’t got a single clue to go on.

I guess my point is that even though Lofty hadn't come under any suspicion, it's possible we were nominating a couple wolves and sentiment was shifting against those people (and other wolves), and so it was quite likely that a wolf would be lynched regardless. For instance, let's say that Byron-Pepe-Lofty are all wolves. Once those nominations were made, one of them would have been lynched no matter what, since Baz is another jaded villager. Of course the wolves wouldn't know that those would be the eventual nominations for that round when Jimmy made his Lofty nom, but you could expect that, with a 50% probability, a wolf would be lynched. And Jimmy would have very likely been on the chopping block after that. To me it would be sensible, albeit risky, for a wolf to do a first nomination of another wolf to take charge of the situation and prevent the dominos from falling in the next round.

I'm not saying with any certainty that Byron and Pepe are definitely wolves, but treating this is a batshit conspiracy theory is misguided

[niko_cee]

Voting patterns are hardly going to be conclusive, probably at any point, but I think there is a fairly compelling case for Browning not being a wolf, and if you believe that (and also know Manc was a villager) then I also think there's a decent chance a wolf or two chucked in an early vote for one of those when they were up for the vote. It doesn't narrow the field much, but it does a bit.

[ScousePig]

I knew I'd get put on the list with that post.

If our strategy is purely to relitigate old votes, then:
- I voted for Browning despite nominating Manc because I came around to the idea that Manc was a jaded villager and Browning was the next best option there.
- I didn't vote for Lofty because at this point, after the previous round, I became highly suspicious of Pepe, and still am - though it appears (with a couple exceptions) that no one is interested in putting him on the list again, which is a mistake imo.

My intent in nominating Jimmy was to at least start a discussion about him, when it seemed like everyone bar Spikey had reached the conclusion that he is untouchable. That can't happen and it looks like nobody is taking the idea seriously. If we're basing our suspicions entirely around level 1 voting patterns then the wolves are going to win, because all they need to do is vote for themselves every now and then and we're just going to keep lynching villagers who deviated from crowd prescriptions

'the wolves are going to win if...' sounds a bit desperate to me. All they've managed to do so far is kill mainly quiet villagers and one doctor. They're not doing great at all at this point.

I find the game a bit trickier not knowing how many players are in each role. Do we usually know this?

[Boydy]

Reminder

Nominations close at 1pm.

[Boydy]

Nominations closed

Spikey - nominated by Jimmy, seconded by Igor.
Jimmy - nominated by Spikey, seconded by Mugbull.
Vercetti - nominated by Adramelch, seconded by Niko.
Mugbull - nominated by Browning, seconded by Spoonsky.

Nominated but not seconded:
Browning - nominated by Thommo.
Byron - nominated by Pepe.
Pepe - nominated by Byron.

[Boydy]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[Browning]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

Sticking with my nomination for now. His voting pattern is dodgy as fuck and to be honest his defense just makes me more dubious.

That said I could see reasons to look at any of the 3. Anyone voting for Jimmy is an idiot.

[Adramelch]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

Jimmy gets a temporary pass for the reasons that Spoonsky et al have outlined (although we shouldn't just assume he's innocent). Mugbull's vocal opposition against Jimmy looks like a weird move for a wolf to make. So it's Spikey and Vercetti left and between the two I'll just stick with my nomination and my hunch.

[ScousePig]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

Some proper roles amongst that lot.

I'm in two minds. There could be a danger of a Mokbull procession (and I'd be more inclined to sway towards voting him than Jimmy in their little stand off) which isn't really helpful, and there have been a few question marks over Spikey in the past. We potentially gain the least from killing Vercetti, but that's mainly due to activity levels from all four.

[igor_balis]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

As above. I don't think jimmy would either be as stupid or as reckless to play the game like he has if he was a wolf, and my gut says he's got some extra intel guiding his decisions.

[Spikey M]

I'll be honest lads, I've lost interest, so you can lynch me if you I like. I probably won't be chipping in much anymore anyway.

It would be a wasted kill though.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not really sure about this one. I reckon it's even possible that all three of them could be wolves and I also think that the wolfish votes may come later in the piece here as they try to work out how to keep their man alive or, even, avoid a double-lynching (how the tables have turned, eh, wolf scum).

Guess I'll stick with my nomination for now but might change later.

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[mugbull]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

People have made some valid points about Jimmy and i'll switch my vote to self-preserve if I have to, but I'm gonna have to go with my gut here

[Pepe]

Do we have subs? If that little princess is going to play it like that, we could maybe replace her.

[niko_cee]

Spikey's vote change in the last round was a fairly significant catalyst towards Lofty's lynching. That doesn't really sit right with me as a marker of him being a wolf.

[thommo]

With this current selection, I don't think one of them has been completely wolf-ish, nor has one matched votes or nominations often. Spikey may be pulling a fast one with his claim of losing interest, in order to keep himself alive in the background. It's very close between him and mokbull though - his tirade against Jimmy was a little much. That edges it for me.

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[Adramelch]

Unless Byron is also a wolf, that is. @niko

[niko_cee]

Unless Byron is also a wolf, that is. @niko

Yeah, but wouldn't another wolf then have changed to Byron - as he was quite far ahead at that point? Putting another wolf into the mix would be mad. They could easily have been double lynched. That'd be some sell to your fellow wolves - sorry boys, I'm building myself some bulletproof cover and you're both going under the bus.

[thommo]

It's possible he also voted thinking it wouldn't swing as much as it did. I think every one of the nominees has done something so far that we could isolate to show they aren't a wolf, and equally, they've done something fishy (some more than others).

[Pepe]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

Fits the Lofty mould of "just active enough without actually doing anything".

Not sure where I stand on the Jimmy - mugbull feud, so I will let it aside for now.

[ScousePig]

With this current selection, I don't think one of them has been completely wolf-ish, nor has one matched votes or nominations often. Spikey may be pulling a fast one with his claim of losing interest, in order to keep himself alive in the background. It's very close between him and mokbull though - his tirade against Jimmy was a little much. That edges it for me.

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

How have any of the other selections been any different?

The wolves have lost it behind the scenes, here.

[ScousePig]

What's the situation with Bruh? Still an active player I assume?

[Waffdon]

Bruh and Spikey should be mod-killed, really. Or I’ll take over :cool:

[thommo]

I nominate Waff.

[Spikey M]

It's possible he also voted thinking it wouldn't swing as much as it did. I think every one of the nominees has done something so far that we could isolate to show they aren't a wolf, and equally, they've done something fishy (some more than others).

There was 2 or 3 votes in it and presumably not all 4 of them were wolves, so why would I switch from a wolf to another wolf? Wolf politics?

Also bare in mind that my 'fishy' act was to nominate Jimmy for acting odd. Which I'm not alone in noting (one of the others being Lofty isn't ideal) and I climbed down upon having Jimmy's track record pointed out to me.

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[Jimmy Floyd]

I change my vote from Spikey

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[Boydy]

Current standings:
Vercetti - 4
Spikey - 2
Mugbull - 2
Jimmy - 1

8 left to vote.

[Spoonsky]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

I'm not certain he's a wolf by any means, but I think he's the most likely based on the reasons outline on the previous page.

[niko_cee]

I'm fairly sold on either Vercetti or Mugbull, but Spikey suddenly losing interest after whooping Lofty's demise less than 24 hours ago seems a bit off. Not the first player to suddenly 'lose interest' either. Bruh and Baz have gone the same way. It's a bit odd.

[Boydy]

There's still seven left to vote so it seems like quite a few are losing interest.

[niko_cee]

Nah, just waiting to see which way the wind is blowing. Full ballot of votes yesterday bar Bruh.

[Boydy]

You can change your votes. Get them in, you fannies.

[Spikey M]

I'm fairly sold on either Vercetti or Mugbull, but Spikey suddenly losing interest after whooping Lofty's demise less than 24 hours ago seems a bit off. Not the first player to suddenly 'lose interest' either. Bruh and Baz have gone the same way. It's a bit odd.

Meh. It's just getting a bit boring, plus It's monday. I have very little interest in anything right now. 90% sure I'm actually depressed at this point. But anyway, if you want to somehow read something into me taking part in the lynching of a wolf whilst simultaneously getting bored then have at it.

[niko_cee]

Meh, just sayin'.

I'm happy to stick with Vercetti for now.

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[7om]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

Been a bit under the weather today. Sorry for the inactivity.

[Adramelch]

I think Spikey is on point with it being Monday playing its part.

Vercetti - 5
Spikey - 3
Mugbull - 3
Jimmy - 1

With Pleb, Byron, Vercetti, Bruh and Baz left to vote, if I am not mistaken.

[ScousePig]

I've felt a bit 'meh' today, for what it's worth. In general I mean, not for the game.

We might not see Baz or Bruh again, so that's a couple of votes down.

[Boydy]

I think Spikey is on point with it being Monday playing its part.

Vercetti - 5
Spikey - 3
Mugbull - 3
Jimmy - 1

With Pleb, Byron, Vercetti, Bruh and Baz left to vote, if I am not mistaken.

This is correct.

[Adramelch]

I think we should also put some pressure on Igor. He's the one with the least posts in the thread at this moment and has flown completely under the radar. He did vote for Lofty last round and it was the first vote for him at that moment, but the score was 2-2 between Byron and Pepe so it could be the perfect point for a wolf to hide, possibly thinking it's a dead vote.

He might well be a seer of course, but that's always a possibility when the "silent" argument is used sadly.

[Baz]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[niko_cee]

Baz to swing by for a stab at a 7.59 double lynch.

Or not.

[Boydy]

Vercetti - 5
Spikey - 4
Mugbull - 3
Jimmy - 1

8 minutes left.

[niko_cee]

It's eerily quiet in here.

[Vercetti]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

[niko_cee]

Somebody get muggers in for the treble. I had it all queued up.

[Boydy]

Voting is closed

[Spikey M]

Lol

[Spikey M]

Spikey - Jimmy - Vercetti - Mugbull

You ain't nothing but a slag.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

:lol:

[Boydy]

Final scores:
Vercetti - 5
Spikey - 5
Mugbull - 3
Jimmy - 1

[Adramelch]

If he is a wolf it would make sense to wait until the very last moment to take a civilian down with him. I blame Baz for setting it all up (even though I'm fairly convinced he's a villager and he just wants to stir shit up).

[Spikey M]

No more Seer for you lot. You fucking idiots.

[SvN]

That's a wolf move if I've ever seen one. Well done lads, you've nabbed one.

[Boydy]

Double lynch!

Spikey has been lynched.


He was a villager.



Vercetti has been lynched.


He was a wolf.

[Spoonsky]

Shiiii

That's a good result all in all.

[Spikey M]

Avenge me.

[niko_cee]

If I die I'll leave the village my spreadsheet.

[Adramelch]

I don't want to take all the credit, but I will anyway. :youpi:

His post on Taz's death was the big giveaway for me.

[Spoonsky]

No more Seer for you lot. You fucking idiots.

You cunt. :D

[SvN]

The wolves aren't just on the ropes, they're halfway into the front row and hanging on for dear life.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Fucking lol that they've been sitting in their sordid, pathetic little den for hours waiting for 7.59 so Pards could even things up for damage limitation.

[thommo]

Is Baz just a disgruntled villager? Or hiding his wolf ways behind that guise?

2 in 2 days is a top result, no matter what.

[Adramelch]

Pepe, Igor and possibly 7om to be the rest of the wolves. Heard it here first.

[Spoonsky]

Baz's voting record is very dodgy indeed. Nearly saved Lofty yesterday and nearly saved Vercetti today, still managing to set up the double lynch. And his silence and outer show of apathy - while still voting every round - is suspicious.

[thommo]

I don't want to waste a day kicking out someone who just turns out to be a villager messing with the system, but otherwise it's a very ballsy wolf play that is almost paying off.

[Adramelch]

I don't know, that would be a ridiculously risky move for a wolf to make, but maybe they're betting on that?

I've already mentioned my thoughts on 7om (quiet and started posting more when I called him out on it) and Igor (least posts, completely flown under the radar). As for Pepe he said that:


Fuck me, I think that I rather vote Lofty over Byron, but I don't want to instigate a double lynch at this point. Byron is probably a good target at this point, mind.


The proceeded to vote for Byron when he was already 2 votes ahead. Then joked about swapping from Byron to Lofty when the score was 7-5 but never did. In the end, he swapped from Byron to Baz, after I'd already broken the tie. Suspicious behavior if you ask me.

[niko_cee]

Baz and Mugbull guilty as sin.

[Giggles]

Baz's voting record is very dodgy indeed. Nearly saved Lofty yesterday and nearly saved Vercetti today, still managing to set up the double lynch. And his silence and outer show of apathy - while still voting every round - is suspicious.

Baz was showing concern. That’s as big a sign he’s acting than anything.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They're going to need to be playing some next level 4D chess to bring it back from here, but sadly for them I'm playing 5D chess and pushing hard for 6D by tomorrow.

[Spoonsky]

I've heard 5D causes coronavirus.

[mugbull]

Alright the guy voted for a 2nd wolf

[Boydy]

The wolves have struck

https://media.nationalgeographic.org/assets/photos/c2b/998/c2b9986f-5ccb-45f5-b324-aaeccbf5f0b2.jpg

[Boydy]

Tonight the wolves have chosen:


Jimmy




He was

protected.

[Adramelch]

Oof, bad day to be a wolf, innit? I guess it evens out the Spikey lynching in terms of numbers.

[thommo]

On the ropes. :drool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pahahahahaha.

Get back to your smelly fucking den, wolfie boys, tails between your fucking legs. You come at the king, you best not miss.

[SvN]

:harold:

[Browning]

Never in doubt.

[Boydy]

Get your nominations in.

Same drill, close nominations at 1pm tomorrow. Close voting at 8pm.

[Adramelch]

Let's discuss numbers here. There is a 2nd doctor. This to me almost certainly means that there will also be more than 1 seer (but they work as a team in terms of investigations, as I assume was the case with the doctors too). With 2 of each, plus the 1 hunter (doubt there will more than 1), I think it's a reasonable assumption that there's no less than 5 wolves in total to even the odds. Possibly even 6 but that might be pushing it a bit.

[Jimmy Floyd]

14 players left, think it's safe to assume at least 3 of them are wolves.

The process of elimination should do it from here.

[Adramelch]

15 actually. I was going to nominate Pepe for the reasons I mentioned earlier, but he did vote for Vercetti this round at a point where the score was Spikey 3-1 Vercetti so if he voted for Spikey it would have possibly snowballed from there. I think that earns him a bit more time.

[Jimmy Floyd]

mokbull is wolf central, you could see the life draining out of him as that last round went on.

[Adramelch]

I still feel he was too aggressive which would be a quite risky move.

[Spoonsky]

Alright the guy voted for a 2nd wolf

Covering his tracks to appear that he supports Jimmy just before we were to find out his true identity (which only a wolf would have known).

Coincidence?

I nominate mugbull (first nomination).

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Pahahahahaha.

Get back to your smelly fucking den, wolfie boys, tails between your fucking legs. You come at the king, you best not miss.

:D

[Adamski]

Could someone post a brief description of what each role can do? Obviously villager/wolf I get.

Hunter/doctor/seer - what’s their roles about? What’s protected as well? Basically a terminator?

[Waffdon]

I still feel he was too aggressive which would be a quite risky move.

I don’t think he’s ever played before so I wouldn’t look too much into thought process.

The wolves are a mess.

[Spoonsky]

The game follows day/night cycles and we'll begin with a night cycle.

At night, the wolves choose someone to kill.

Wolves - you can communicate among yourselves and you choose one person to kill each night.

Doctors - you can communicate among yourselves and you choose one person to protect each night. If the wolves also attack them, they don't die. It will not be revealed to the village who you chose to protect unless it is successful.

Seers - you can communicate among yourselves and you choose one person to investigate each night. You will be told what their role is.

Hunters - when killed (either by wolves or by villagers) they get to choose one person to take down with them.

The rest of you are villagers. You don't have any special powers.


From the OP. It's the wolves against everyone else.

[mugbull]

Covering his tracks to appear that he supports Jimmy just before we were to find out his true identity (which only a wolf would have known).


Nah, not really. Just accepting i was wrong

[Spoonsky]

A very convenient time to accept you were wrong.

[Byron]

Pepe has got to be a wolf at this point.

Also apologies for inactivity, work was just a conference today.

[mugbull]

A very convenient time to accept you were wrong.

I had probably about 10 minutes to know I was wrong

[Spoonsky]

I don't get where the suspicion of Pepe is coming from. He had key votes to lynch Lofty (by switching from Byron) and now Vercetti (2nd vote when Spikey already had 3 and might have run away with it if he'd received a 4th vote).

[ScousePig]

:D See you later Mokkers.

Rather than just wasting a day, there's probably quite a bit of probing we can do now.

[niko_cee]

Having not read the OP I had no idea there were multiple doctors or seers.

[Adramelch]

Ok boys, at the risk of becoming Bruhnaldo and accusing half the village, I present thommo:

His first handful of posts had barely anything to do with the game, mostly making fun of Bruh. First meaningful post was his vote for AD in the first round. We now know AD was a villager, but in fairness it was the first round and we had fuck all to go with (also the nominations were 4 confirmed villagers and Bruhnaldo). In the 2nd round he heavily pushed for Manc, who again turned out to be a villager (lynched in the 3rd round after that). In that 3rd round he nominated Browning (Manc was already seconded or else he would have gone for him according to his post) and voted for him even though Manc was on the ballot. Went quiet after that and came to vote early for Baz in the 4th round (the one with Lofty on the ballot). With the score at Byron 6-4 Lofty he says that:


Who hasn’t voted yet? Be interesting to see if there are any late swings here.

Which with a bit of tinfoil hatting could be seen as an attempt to scare people away from voting Lofty so that they don't get victimized for swinging the vote. When Baz came in and attempt a double he said:


What the fuck Baz? Mass change to get him lynched, anyone?

Possible last ditch attempt to save a fellow wolf? In fairness though, most of us had the same thought. Last round he nominated Browning again (who, mind you, voted for Lofty fairly early on when the score was Byron 3 - Pepe 2 - Lofty 2). When niko called him out on it, his response:


I've nominated him again because he was on my radar early and got away with it when in the vote with Manc, in my eyes. Manc was clearly not interested and so the village decided to get rid of the inactive, but I think Browning got away easy there.

He did vote for Lofty last round, but AD brought up some suspicions with him before he was eaten by the wolves, and it just made me wonder. Hence the nomination.


Not very convincing if you ask me. Since Browning wasn't seconded he voted for mugbull.

Probably not the best constructed post, but there you have it. With that in mind:

I nominate thommo (first nomination).

PS: I also found this gem by Baz:


^This.

Immediately flagged up SvN, Mahow, Jimmy Floyd and Spikey.

10/10 guess.

[Adramelch]

Having not read the OP I had no idea there were multiple doctors or seers.

I think the plural is deliberate on the OP so that it's not obvious if there's more than 1. I doubt there's more than 1 hunter for example.

[Pepe]

Fuck me, what a result. :cool:

These wolves are havin' a 'mare. Let's get this over with in the next couple of days.

[Pepe]

Looking at the list of players, igor balls will have to come under fire at some point.

[niko_cee]

Yeah, maybe, although he did vote for Lofty in the previous round (albeit early).

Quite a few people didn't vote for either of the wolves.

From my earlier musings about people who voted for Manc or Browning in R3, of which Vercetti was a candidate (and voted Manc) I wonder if another of the wolves would have snuck one in on Browning around the same time (I'm still assuming he's a villager - even though he's managed to not vote for either of the [confirmed] wolves in the past two rounds). 7om, Thommo and Mugbull fall into that category. Baz also does, but voted much later. He does present a bit of a problem though as he seems intent on creating multiple lynching situations. I reckon there's possibly a couple more in that selection.

[ScousePig]

Baz just can't be arsed and probably wants this thing wrapped up. Speaking of which:

I nominate Mokbull (second nomination)

Let's get one or two others and at least make it worthwhile.

[Boydy]

Nominated and seconded:
Mugbull - nominated by Spoonsky, seconded by ScousePig.

Nominated but not yet seconded:
Thommo - nominated by Adramelch.


Come on lads.

[Browning]

I'll almost certainly be standing by my vote from the last round, but in the interest of actually having a game to play....

I nominate Thommo (second nomination)

Because fuck you, that's why.

I'll be honest, those 2 are my top 2 candidates, so while I'm sticking by my theory that, based on his voting pattern, Mugbull is the wolfiest wolf that ever wolfed, I wouldn't be heartbroken to see Thommo go. He's had it in for me from day one, and the fact he's tried to frame me using wolf kills as his evidence screams even louder that he could be the wolf and that could have been the plan. This in turn further incriminates Mugbull though, because he was one of the ones trying to lead that charge.

[mugbull]

I never led any charge against you