UK General Election 2017 - 8 June

[GS]

Saint Daniel Hannan predicted he'd chuck it at the time, so he was goading him yesterday for being a cunt.

He must have been seething when Carswell decided not to run.

[Henry]

Tony Blair reckons that people should vote for the Lib Dems or Tories in some places. And for that, he needs to be thrown out of the Labour party.

[GS]

If Labour threw party members out for occasional disloyalty (implicit), then Jeremy would have been kicked out of the party years ago having voted against the party whip over 500 times (explicit disloyalty).

Still, nothing better than watching a good purge on the left.

[Henry]

Voting against the whip isn't against the membership rules. Advocating for other parties is.

[GS]

Only if you do so explicitly, which he didn't.

[GS]

The absolute state of Zac Goldsmith crawling back to the Conservatives to try and win selection in Richmond. Hopefully they tell him to fuck off.

[Lewis]

Somebody with that much money should have better hobbies.

[GS]

I suspect he's not particularly bright.

[Smiffy]

.....

[Raoul Duke]

Yeah, he's just a rich bellend looking for some plebs to boss around. Totally transparent.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I have reports through a friend of a friend of a friend that knows him (I know, right?) that he's well meaning but thick as pig shit.

[GS]

Clive Lewis put up some seat poll to say that only he could beat the Tories. It seems he made it up and the pollster he accredited it to has been onto him to take it down.

One of the favourites for the leadership, there.

[Henry]

A friend of mine was sitting next to Paddy Ashdown on a train yesterday and was chatting with him.
As well as helping him fix his laptop he got talking to him about the election. They were interrupted when he got a call from some journalist, who Ashdown gave a bit of a bollocking to. :cool:

[GS]

Ashdown ran the Lib Dem campaign at the 2015 election, so you have to ask what some of these people need to do to be discredited.

Ryan Coetzee or Andrew Cooper, as examples, shouldn't be allowed to work in politics again. Unless your aim is to lose and lose badly.

[Lewis]

https://i0.wp.com/order-order.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/yougov-age.png?w=540&ssl=1

That is a good graph. But once those Conservative voters start to die...

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah but real socialism hasn't been tried.

[GS]

It's not fair on young people. If only they could vo.... Wait.

[Henry]

Yeah but real socialism hasn't been tried.

Yes it has. The NHS is socialist to give one glaringly relevant example.

[phonics]

The worlds highest revenue sport, the NFL is also socialist as fuuuuuuck.

[phonics]

I must have missed something here. Why has Tim Farron, recently off his whistlestop tour of telling people 'Yes I think homosexuals are disgusting but they shouldn't be sent off to re-education camps" sacked a bloke for saying Israel is bad for Palestinians?

[Lewis]

Looking at his CONTROVERSIES, the worst ones tend to come from him using Israelis/Jews interchangeably, and he seems to have accepted that he does himself no favours doing so. The shitstorm that his rocket comments (for example) provoked was just mass idiocy, given the history of Jewish settlers' own violent responses to their perceived occupation by the British Empire.

[John Arne]

I just read about this guy... So it seems to be ok to support Israel bombing Palestine, but not the other way round?

[Lewis]

Terrorism mate.

[John Arne]

#JeSuisVictims

[GS]

857312313556316161

This sums THE MOVEMENT up, really. It's easy to pay three quid, but ask them to go out knocking doors on a cold Tuesday night in Stoke and they can't hack it.

[Lewis]

Is that James?

[randomlegend]

Mutton-headed mugwump is quality Borissing :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

In the context of an election it's pretty lol because what it has generated is about 9 light hearted comment pieces investigating exactly what sort of an idiot they think Boris is claiming Jezza to be.

[GS]

I preferred "benign Islingtonian herbivore".

It's a great way of keeping the narrative on Corbyn's unsuitability for office.

[Kikó]

It's just complete wankery from a try hard gobshite.

[Henry]

Suitability for office isn't something Boris has any right to bang on about.

[GS]

In the same way that Corbyn and his supporters have no right to complain about lack of support from colleagues or failures of message discipline by the PLP. But there we are.

It's proven highly effective because not only is there considerable coverage about what a mugwump actually is, the analysis then details Corbyn's faults against the definition. Meanwhile, more substantive comments are glossed over.

[Lewis]

It's just complete wankery from a try hard gobshite.

If Jezza was serious about going down in flames he would have said something along those lines.

[GS]

This line about Theresa May being "out of line" by calling an election really is a laugh. These people fucking hate the electorate.

[Lewis]

lol Jo Swinson. You forget how crap those Liberal Democrat stiffs were.

[GS]

This is absolutely fucking lamentable. The more you see of the general public, the more you have to wonder if the Reform Acts and universal suffrage were really worth it.

The panel are also displaying a genuinely dreadful lack of understanding of constitutional convention, or they're just wilfully misrepresenting it.

[Yevrah]

A dreadful panel all round really.

[GS]

Some belting highlights here.

- Only "30%" is the electorate voted for Brexit, therefore it's illegitimate. This includes children and babies who will be affected by the referendum vote and were denied their say.

- "You haven't given us policies." Green says wait for the manifesto out in ten days' time. Audience member says "you called the election and surely you should be able to get your policies out quicker than Labour." Which they are, because Labour's isn't out for about a week after that.

How do you get to the point of being that thick?

[Yevrah]

You absolutely can't go on a platform like this and hide behind a manifesto that isn't due for a week. The cunt's done it twice now.

[GS]

What's he meant to do? He's in the cabinet, and will be after the election, so he can't be in a position of making policy pledges that he doesn't know about it.

He can offer a personal view, but that's equally pointless in the context of what the policy commitment will actually be.

[Lewis]

This (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXmQdi9pwDA#t=51s) should be the manifesto, along with however many pictures of Jezza palling around with Gerry Adams they have saved.

[Lewis]

Hold on. I've just seen on the Twitter that the Tories (Conservative and Unionist Party) are going to privatise the NHS. Is that right?

[GS]

I don't know, but this SNP wanker appears to have suggested that there should be no bombing in Syria and the only solution is to get everybody round the table. Presumably this includes ISIS, but in the event that this went ahead one assumes they'd immediately denounced "TORY SCUM" for engaging with terrorists.

Has there always been such a demonstrable dearth of political talent or is over saturation simply exposing their latent incompetence to the masses?

[Kikó]

They're rigging the system is all I know.

[GS]

They're rigging the system is all I know.

Yep. They've called an election and are asking people to vote for them. If they win enough votes, they might increase their majority. It's outrageous, as I'm sure we can all agree.

"Blessed are the peacemakers" from Clive Lewis, there. Presumably that's Jeremy's condoning of the IRA excused.

[GS]

"King Jong-Un is clearly bad, but..." from Jo Swinson before launching into a huge rant about how much of a cunt Donald Trump is.

She's now suggesting that Trump should have obtained international clearance before launching missiles against Assad. Because the Russians wouldn't veto it.

[ItalAussie]

My friend made the point that it'd be interesting to see how the Lib Dems would go if they basically went all in and said "we have one single policy - we will immediately repeal article 50 and stay in the EU, if elected".

Obviously they'd get nowhere near winning, for a variety of reasons (not the least, throwing the entire party behind a policy that has at best significantly less than majority support), but currently they're just drifting badly and don't seem to serve any real voting niche. It would certainly be enough of a point of difference with the two major parties that it would attract interest.

I doubt anything is too crazy to try given their current death spiral.


EDIT: Said friend is also non-British. This was just some hypothetical discussion about the upcoming election.

[Jimmy Floyd]

That basically is what they're doing isn't it?

I expect them to gain a decent number of seats, although when you're on 8 then any number of gains is a decent number.

[GS]

Yeah, that's pretty much what they're doing. If you're still advocating to stay in at this point, then you were probably a Lib Dem voter pre-coalition anyway. You might return to the party this time around on Brexit alone, but they're still sitting on less than half of their vote from 2010.

I don't actually think they have a huge number of places to go. They might gain a few seats in ultra-Remain strongholds, but part of the Lib Dem "gameplan" is to have a massive ground operation in by-elections. Sarah Olney won Richmond in December, but that was because they threw absolutely everything at it. That's impossible to do in a general election, obviously, and they just don't have the weight of support, activists, or money at the minute to do a huge amount outside core target seats. Plus if you look at the votes on a seat by seat basis in England and Wales, the vast majority of constituencies voted to leave. There's not a huge number of competitive ultra-Remain seats to target:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C960C47UQAAH0W4.jpg:large

The Guardian have done some decent analysis and it actually looks fucking bleak for them: here (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak). To be honest, I think their credibility is still shot. It's impossible to make the argument against "the Tories" and "Tory policy" when it was your party that propped them up for five years and voted with them on things like austerity and tuition fees.

Farron doesn't help them. He's not exactly a figure of national significance, and most people don't even know who he is.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm doing a full spreadsheet again for a prediction (I underestimated THE TORIES last time, to my eternal shame, was about 30 seats out).

There are so many unknowns and four-way dynamics in this one (for example, where do all the 2015 kippers go? Tory, Labour, stay with UKIP, stay at home?) that it should be pretty unpredictable, on a local level at least.

[Lewis]

The problem with the Progressive Alliance putting all of their h'eggs in the single market basket is that Theresa May whomping them is - according to their logic - a Hard Mandate for a Hard Brexit. Then what can they possibly complain about?

[Jimmy Floyd]

They'll always be able to argue that the public didn't vote for a Hard Brexit, a) because nobody knows what a Hard Brexit is and b) because that there isn't a ballot paper that says 'Hard Brexit' on it.

[Lewis]

This Liberal Democrat advert is a bit odd. The idea seems to be that the shit news keeps coming, but the people in it don't seem to be having any problems (other than Tim Farron being in their street suspiciously early, as if he has been out bumming all night).

[Henry]

Labour are promising to ban zero hour contracts and arms sales to Saudi Arabia. This is good.

They've also gained on Tory scum in the polls.

[Shindig]

I wish you'd stop referring to them as scum. You've never been governed by them.

[Henry]

What? Yes I have.

[Jimmy Floyd]

As much as zero hour contracts are a load of wank, banning them won't solve anything and will probably make it worse. If you want to ban capitalism, fair enough.

[Henry]

What is the "it" they would be made worse?

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39775693

Fuck it, let's run with it. Jez4PM.

[Kikó]

At least under the Tories we can guarantee a strong and stable NHS, police force, teaching sector, economy, welfare system, after care provisions, mental health provisions, prisons...

[Smiffy]

.....

[Jimmy Floyd]

Twitter is full of 'OMG Theresa May is terrible' and OK maybe she is, but to think the alternative is better is completely deluded.

[Lewis]

Guy Verhofstadt was trolling STRONG & STABLE yesterday, and fair play to him; but the reaction to the other European business was a bit lol. What do you know, it's actually them that want the hardest of landings. It's almost as if they are a bunch of fanatics.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Watching them gradually cave in will be one of the funnier things in my lifetime.

I was lolling at 'Commission sources' briefing things and Ian Dunt wanking himself into a coma.

[Kikó]

They have no real reason to cave in though so I'm not sure I share your optimism.

[Jimmy Floyd]

They need to sell their stuff to Britain. Early in negotiations (or before they've even started) there's obviously going to be daft sabre rattling on both sides. Typically each side chooses its favoured sabre rattling and says 'I told you so!', while ignoring the other side's.

This Corbyn response to Diane Abbott's cock up is why he is so great. No rapid PR sweating and Malcolm Tucker bullshit, he just stands outside a Co-op somewhere and calmly chats away like the High Sparrow himself.

[Lewis]

Other than something formalising the status of citizens here and there, we're not getting anything out of Europe. They're like the waxworks running the Soviet Union during the eighties, and all they will do is prove exactly why we had to leave.

[Lewis]

If that Conservative Party broadcast is anything to go off, Theresa May is significantly more popular than the party as a whole, and they want to flatten everybody.

[phonics]

You still have to adhere to their standards to sell to them anyway and their standards will have to apply to anything you buy. You now just don't get a voice to influence the direction of the giant boat.

[Lewis]

In which case the European Union should merge with China.

[Raoul Duke]

This Corbyn response to Diane Abbott's cock up is why he is so great. No rapid PR sweating and Malcolm Tucker bullshit, he just stands outside a Co-op somewhere and calmly chats away like the High Sparrow himself.

:D that is bang on

[niko_cee]

I rather enjoyed that even without understanding the actual reference.

[phonics]

This Tory strategy of saying absolutely nothing that isn't claiming anyone who isn't them would plunge the country into chaos is alright when your strongest foe is the policy obelisk blokes Twitter feed but what happens when someone even vaguely competetent comes along and/or Brexit doesn't cure all the worlds ills? They're fucked, no?

Camerons platform was shite for my personal politics but at least I knew where he stood on 90% of things. All the people left seem to be giant morons (Davis, Boris, Fox) or charlatans (May, Gove).

[Jimmy Floyd]

They'll get done in about 15-20 years' time when people are ready for another Blair.

[phonics]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-5Je1hXoAArIy9.jpg:large

As I was saying.

[Disco]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39790805

If he comes round and washes my car I'll definitely think about considering voting for him.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Labour campaign so far has shat on the Tory one from a great height. Luckily campaigns make no difference.

[phonics]

His Twitter feed is excellent it must be said. Was he trying too hard to be taken seriously back in the day or did he always have that sense of humor?

[Offshore Toon]

His Twitter feed is excellent it must be said. Was he trying too hard to be taken seriously back in the day or did he always have that sense of humor?
It seems he got told how to be 'likeable' and became unlikeable.

[phonics]

Political consultants trying to make people likeable is always hilarious considering I don't think there's a more distasteful job in the world.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Funny you should mention political consultants, it's been a quiet afternoon in Seoul so I've been re-reading this (https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/dominic-cummings-brexit-referendum-won/) and trying to think about its lessons for the current campaign.

The main one, being as I am a rabid consumer of 'SW1 media', is that the Tories will piss it with a Blair-sized majority.

[Lewis]

I don't think they tried to make him likeable. They tried to make him 'tough', and less of a gimp, which was always doomed to failure due to him being a gimp.

[Jimmy Floyd]

ITV is having a laugh with this 'debate' of theirs. Theresa will dodge it and Corbyn will, correctly, also dodge it so we should get a good 2 hours of Tim Farron and Paul Nuttall re-running the shitter end of the EU referendum arguments.

[Lewis]

The Prime Minister giving an official speech telling Europe to fuck off is the peak of so many things.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'd love to produce some sort of quantitative table mapping various commentators' reactions to the PM's speech earlier and the line of their comment pieces during the 6 month run up to the referendum.

[Magic]

UKIP. :harold:

[Jimmy Floyd]

If this is anything to go by, the Tory majority next month (sorry, Theresa May's strong and stable majority in the national interest) will be pushing 300.

[phonics]

So the Lib Dems just won a seat because the Conservative member literally drew the short straw.

[Henry]

The Prime Minister giving an official speech telling Europe to fuck off is the peak of so many things.

Why is Fred West your avatar?

[Magic]

15% turnout in Dundee in some places. :|

[Jimmy Floyd]

I didn't even turn out for mine (which is a first). These were the candidates:

Conservative: vile, caked up old bitch who runs for the county council on what she falsely believes to be a personal vote.
Lib Dem: mad, evil cow who has just defected from the Tories over Brexit and now spends her days spamming Twitter with Tim Farron pictures and videos.
Labour: mate, you're running for Labour in Surrey.
UKIP: idiot.

Conservative will win with a Kim Jong-Un style majority.

[Disco]

I guess Chinny is probably out of a job soon then.

[Magic]

Worth it for BREXIT. :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond says the Conservatives have "eliminated UKIP by becoming UKIP".

He told BBC News: "One very interesting trend when you see the disappearance of UKIP from English politics, and Welsh politics for that matter, is the extent to which the Conservative party have become UKIP.

"They have eliminated UKIP by becoming UKIP. And the sort of extreme language that Theresa May used in Downing Street the other day - I mean that could have come from Nigel Farage."

Lefties everywhere pushing this line it seems. When will they learn?

[Magic]

SNP losing to Tories all over the place in Scotland. So much irony that they are responsible for the Tory resurgence.

[-james-]

Ferguslie Park, recently named most deprived part of the UK, electing a Tory council. :cab:

[Jimmy Floyd]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-election-conservative-candidates-told-to-refer-to-pm-claire-louise-leyland-general-a7718161.html

This stuff I just find hilarious. Focus groups must be having Theresa May themed orgies or something.

[Kikó]

Interesting that they're saying vote for TM rather than the Tories. The election is going to be an absolute massacre nationwide.

[Magic]

Ferguslie Park, recently named most deprived part of the UK, electing a Tory council. :cab:

Staunch unionists (see: orange scum).

[Lewis]

Lefties everywhere pushing this line it seems. When will they learn?

I heard Caroline Lucas on the radio saying that the silver lining to their own failures was UKIP tanking. Where exactly does she think those votes are going?

[Lewis]

lol at the Theresa May and Unionist Party winning this West Midlands mayoral bollocks. Not just because it's the West Midlands, but Sion Simon is one of the biggest wankers in England.

EDIT: And the Tees Valley as well. Harold Macmillan is back baby.

[Lewis]

Jezza was just on the news putting his faith in people who never voted in local elections, and the 'very large number' of people who still need to register. Brilliant mate.

[Waffdon]

Ferguslie Park, recently named most deprived part of the UK, electing a Tory council. :cab:

Rangers fans, eh.

[Shindig]

Durham's a comfy Labour hold with an defections going to Independents, Tories and Lib Dems.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I didn't even turn out for mine (which is a first). These were the candidates:

Conservative: vile, caked up old bitch who runs for the county council on what she falsely believes to be a personal vote.
Lib Dem: mad, evil cow who has just defected from the Tories over Brexit and now spends her days spamming Twitter with Tim Farron pictures and videos.
Labour: mate, you're running for Labour in Surrey.
UKIP: idiot.

Conservative will win with a Kim Jong-Un style majority.

Lol, the Lib Dem cow from hell nearly lost to Labour. Our area voted Remain as well. Lib Dem fightback seems to have work to do.

[Lewis]

When will people stop reading into by-elections?

[phonics]

Hasn't the line about the Conservatives getting immigration down to the 'tens of thousands' been in every manifesto for about a decade and they never, ever, ever get anywhere near it?

What is the point?

[mo]

Hasn't the line about the Conservatives getting immigration down to the 'tens of thousands' been in every manifesto for about a decade and they never, ever, ever get anywhere near it?

What is the point?

Sounds good, innit.

[Shindig]

#gains.

[Raoul Duke]

Hasn't the line about the Conservatives getting immigration down to the 'tens of thousands' been in every manifesto for about a decade and they never, ever, ever get anywhere near it?

What is the point?

They might actually do it this time, when the banking industry leaves London :henn0rz:

[Jimmy Floyd]

It's a stupid claim and played a big part in Dave losing the referendum. I still don't think the ELITES understand what people's problem with immigration actually is. It's not the stats, it's the actual transformative effect on their communities and local areas, something they weren't asked about.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I think Paul Nuttall is legitimately a worse politician than Jeremy Corbyn, which I didn't think possible. UKIP will be back to their old 3% levels and almost every one of those votes will go Tory.

[Lewis]

He strikes me as being a bit thick. I suppose he was always over-promoted on account of not looking/sounding like the 'typical' UKIPer (that is to say a Nigel Farage clone), but now it has got out of hand.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas says she's detecting "enormous enthusiasm" for the idea of "progressive" anti-Tory alliances among grassroots activists and the public at large.

They see it as “grown up politics", she says, and a recognition "that if we want to avoid a massive Tory landslide we can do that, but we need to act now, not wait until June 9th to wish we had done things differently".

The Labour and Lib Dem leaderships, however, have been “less forthcoming” about the idea, which Ms Lucas calls “desperately disappointing”.

If there's anything guaranteed to cause a massive Tory landslide, that is it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Ah, now Labour want to ban 'junk food' advertising.

It's all getting a bit Goodbye Lenin.

[Lewis]

If there's anything guaranteed to cause a massive Tory landslide, that is it.

There would be a good case for Ed Miliband's Labour and the Liberal Democrats teaming up under current circumstances, but why would you need to involve the Greens? Their best performances are in rock solid Labour seats (and you would have to assume that that is only enabled by people knowing Labour will piss it), so lol at the thought of Labour giving them a free run in somewhere like Western Somalia, and they would have nothing to offer in their third place cathedral city wanker seats if the resident smug tossers had better options TO STOP BREXIT.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't think I want anything to happen more than a British attempt at the Emmanuel Macron Party after this election from a PLP breakaway (and maybe the Lib Dems), ideally involving Tony Blair.

[Lewis]

Called 'Together Britain', or 'Tolerant Britain'.

[phonics]

Ah we're bringing back fox hunting. Christ. These people are absolutely useless.

[Disco]

You realise it never went away right?

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was only 'banned' in the first place to appease Tony's left in about 2001.

As for this attempt to unseat Jeremy Hunt in South West Surrey, I'm not sure if they realise quite what sort of electorate they're dealing with here. Everyone in Godalming probably has their own private hospital wing stuck to their house, let alone BUPA.

[phonics]

Wouldn't say that's true of a large amount of the people I went to school with there. The only people there who outposhed me lived next to Charterhouse.

Farncombe crew represent.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I forgot Farncombe, what a shithole.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_West_Surrey_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

More chance of Halley's Comet hitting the count than Hunt losing.

[phonics]

Your face is a shithole.

[mo]

And capping energy prices. How Marxist.

[Magic]

Are they really wanting to bring back fox hunting or theonion?

[Offshore Toon]

Labour are fielding a 20yo Sussex student in Brighton Pavillion to go up against the Greens. Probably won't vote tbh.

[Jimmy Floyd]

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2017/5/10/d9d6e376-2887-4d0e-be2a-28bf5d8900f1.jpg

Did Austen Chamberlain used to do this stuff and have someone draw it?

[phonics]

862318921604620289

Say what you like about him, the guys an absolute legend when it comes to street campaigning.

[Lewis]

The LEAKED Labour manifesto (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/exclusive-jeremy-corbyns-left-wing-labour-manifesto-leaked/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw) is a bit lame. Why not go all out you fanny?

[Jimmy Floyd]

They added that union leaders have been bought off with special pledges including promises to look again at pensions, scrap driver-only trains and offer an inquiry into the battle of Orgreave during the 1984 miner's strike.

'Union leaders' don't exactly sound like they're driving a hard bargain.

[Disco]

If there's anything unions like to avoid it's unnecessary effort.

[Boydy]

It's fucking great.

[Lewis]

On a SERIOUS note, wouldn't taxing the sort-of-wealthy more accelerate the hollowing out of London, thereby creating a Conservative ring of steel around it forever and ever?

[Jimmy Floyd]

There's already a Conservative ring of steel around it forever and ever. He'll just lose more soft left ponces to the Lib Dems this way.

[Boydy]

The 'sort of wealthy'?

[Lewis]

The people earning over eighty grand (or whatever it is) but aren't quite in the top bracket, which probably makes up half of the Labour vote in some of those inner London wanker seats.

[Boydy]

Ah yes, the top 5%.

[Lewis]

There would be a famine anyway, so it doesn't really matter, but it seems a bit dense and lazy from their perspective.

[phonics]

862921923491188736

We really should be running as political candidates up and down the country. We'd get at least a UKIP size share of the vote.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Leicester East

Keith Vaz (Labour) 28,421
Bob Wank (Conservative) 11,321
Lee Pervert (TTH) 4,210
Steve Cunt (Lib Dem) 824
Chinny Hill (UKIP) 9

We could build a voter base for sure. Might get a couple of newbies on the board too.

[Max Power]

Just dawned on me that I don't live in Vazeline's constituency anymore :(

[Jimmy Floyd]

Pity, it's a real hot point.

[Kikó]

It's pronounced Pur-vay.

[Offshore Toon]

I reckon I'd do alright in Brighton Pavillion unless somebody managed to dig up some slightly racist social media posts, then I'd need to start looking to run in Kent or Essex.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Lib Dems are legalising weed. Bit of a core vote strategy, that. Will alienate A LOT of people.

[Offshore Toon]

Is it really that big a deal? If America are doing it, its surely only a matter of time for the UK?

[phonics]

It'll do the opposite tbh. It's them trying to grab the student vote like they did with tuition fees and look how that went.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't really know, I just think it's crap politics at this juncture. Not that following American policies is really a route to a pure and just society.

[Offshore Toon]

No, but once Americans are smoking weed in every film and TV show I think old people will be a bit more open to it. I'm pretty sure that's been a Lib Dem policy for a while anyway.

[phonics]

It was Green policy (lol), not Lib Dem.

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

I don't often get involved with politics but I'm really eager to see more of official Labour manifesto. I do like Jeremy Corbyn as a person but as good as the leaked manifesto comes across I feel that the damage has already been done over the last couple of years with all of the infighting and senseless media attacks on the man. He might not be everyone's idea of a leader but I just can't get behind Theresa May and how secretive she appears to be about what sort of Brexit the country shall have.

I understand that Brexit means Brexit but it appears her policies (or lack of) are based on blind faith and her refusal to debate on television rubs me up the wrong way.

[Offshore Toon]

It was Green policy (lol), not Lib Dem.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/liberal_democrats_call_for_a_legalised_cannabis_ma rket

At least a year then.

[Offshore Toon]

I don't often get involved with politics but I'm really eager to see more of official Labour manifesto. I do like Jeremy Corbyn as a person but as good as the leaked manifesto comes across I feel that the damage has already been done over the last couple of years with all of the infighting and senseless media attacks on the man. He might not be everyone's idea of a leader but I just can't get behind Theresa May and how secretive she appears to be about what sort of Brexit the country shall have.

I understand that Brexit means Brexit but it appears her policies (or lack of) are based on blind faith and her refusal to debate on television rubs me up the wrong way.
I think Corbyn's main downfall at this point is his cabinet, especially fucking Diane Abbott. I'd much prefer Corbyn to May, but its never going to happen.

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

I think Corbyn's main downfall at this point is his cabinet, especially fucking Diane Abbott. I'd much prefer Corbyn to May, but its never going to happen.

I fully agree with you, mate. I was saying only the other day that I believe Diane Abbott is one of the rats in the party and is deliberately sabotaging things especially after that train wreck of an interview regarding policing. I also don't like the fact that she bottled voting on Article 50 and the reason she gave for it. It was just as petty and ignorant as the one she gave last week.

If that wasn't bad enough her voice drives me absolutely potty. You can see the clogs working overtime as she um's and ah's.

"Well, you see, what I'm about to tell you is the real reason that why we're....the real reason for all of this, you see is basically that um, we're....let me start again so I can be 100% clear."

[Offshore Toon]

I fully agree with you, mate. I was saying only the other day that I believe Diane Abbott is one of the rats in the party and is deliberately sabotaging things especially after that train wreck of an interview regarding policing. I also don't like the fact that she bottled voting on Article 50 and the reason she gave for it. It was just as petty and ignorant as the one she gave last week.

If that wasn't bad enough her voice drives me absolutely potty. You can see the clogs working overtime as she um's and ah's.

"Well, you see, what I'm about to tell you is the real reason that why we're....the real reason for all of this, you see is basically that um, we're....let me start again so I can be 100% clear."
Yeah, she's a total mess. Why do you think she's deliberately sabotage things?

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

I didn't even turn out for mine (which is a first). These were the candidates:

Conservative: vile, caked up old bitch who runs for the county council on what she falsely believes to be a personal vote.
Lib Dem: mad, evil cow who has just defected from the Tories over Brexit and now spends her days spamming Twitter with Tim Farron pictures and videos.
Labour: mate, you're running for Labour in Surrey.
UKIP: idiot.

Conservative will win with a Kim Jong-Un style majority.

I can't see anything other than a huge Conservative win although I am hoping that that isn't the case. Andrew Percy was our elected candidate but he's been there so long now that I think most just went with what they know.


Jezza was just on the news putting his faith in people who never voted in local elections, and the 'very large number' of people who still need to register. Brilliant mate.

I believe voting in this country should be compulsory but then I do wonder whether those who don't register themselves to vote are the sort you wouldn't want to do so anyway.


Hasn't the line about the Conservatives getting immigration down to the 'tens of thousands' been in every manifesto for about a decade and they never, ever, ever get anywhere near it?

What is the point?

This is one of my major problems with Theresa May. She is asking us to believe in her strong and stable government but she was the home secretary for long enough and consistently failed. She mentions deporting about her success in removing Abu Qatada but fails to mention it took over a decade to do so. I wouldn't trust her as far as I could throw her but then that was the same for the last PM too.


I think Paul Nuttall is legitimately a worse politician than Jeremy Corbyn, which I didn't think possible. UKIP will be back to their old 3% levels and almost every one of those votes will go Tory.

I agree. I think the entire party should now disband as I feel it has served its purpose. Paul Nuttall does seem to fit UKIP like a hand in a glove.


The LEAKED Labour manifesto (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/exclusive-jeremy-corbyns-left-wing-labour-manifesto-leaked/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw) is a bit lame. Why not go all out you fanny?

I would take it with a pinch of salt until the official document is released but there are some very good ideas in the leaked version and I think a large portion of the country would support. As to whether they would support Jeremy Corbyn or Labour given how dirty both names are though is another thing.

I won't go through the entire thread and up posts but I'm still relatively undecided as to which way I'll vote and I haven't for a fair few years now. It's all got rather stupid.

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

Yeah, she's a total mess. Why do you think she's deliberately sabotage things?

I couldn't say for sure why I believe that but she just strikes me as the sort who goes against the grain regardless. She did the same thing with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. I think she's a bit too self serving if I'm honest. I don't trust her for no other reason that she just rubs me up the wrong way, rather like Theresa May actually.

[Lewis]

Any drug reform sounds like a bit of a gimmick in a country that shits itself about sugar in cereals.

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

I don't think the United Kingdom is ready for that sort of stuff although I could see the merits in it if it was doing properly. I think the war on drugs failed many years ago and it's not something you're going to be able to stop. I couldn't trust the Liberal Democrats again after slipping in to bed with the Conservatives anyway.

If you had to roll three politicians into one to create a monster, which three would you choose? The thought of David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt and Nick Clegg is enough to give me nightmares but there's so much more scope for worse.

[GS]

The Lib Dems have retreated firmly into 'core vote' territory. Which is fine, but it's doubtful whether they'll even manage to add a handful of seats.

I did enjoy the Labour manifesto, mind you. It's hard not to be fascinated by their continued belief in the Magic Money Tree. I know people joke, but he'd literally bring the country to ruin if he was allowed to implement such nonsense.

[Boydy]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2013/11/Screen-Shot-2013-11-21-at-14.41.361.png

[Magic]

I want to vote labour but it's pointless where I am. If you don't want independence you have to vote Tory. Simple.

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

The Lib Dems have retreated firmly into 'core vote' territory. Which is fine, but it's doubtful whether they'll even manage to add a handful of seats.

I did enjoy the Labour manifesto, mind you. It's hard not to be fascinated by their continued belief in the Magic Money Tree. I know people joke, but he'd literally bring the country to ruin if he was allowed to implement such nonsense.

I saw the Labour manifesto as more of an investment in the future and providing it is all costed (that's where I have my doubts!) then is there not a possibility that it could be just what Britain needs? I do like Jeremy Corbyn and many of his ideals. What part of the draft copy do you believe to be nonsense? I personally got excited by it even if I have taken it with a pinch of salt. It is a draft copy after all.

I firmly believe that if the final copy is anywhere as good as the draft edition appears to be then the public are going to have one hell of a decision to make but then good decision making has been in short supply by the electorate for a long time now so I would take that with a pinch of salt too.

[GS]

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2013/11/Screen-Shot-2013-11-21-at-14.41.361.png

He did. Arising from the economic situation in 2010:

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/net-borrowing-totalJ511-600x471.png

[GS]

I saw the Labour manifesto as more of an investment in the future and providing it is all costed (that's where I have my doubts!) then is there not a possibility that it could be just what Britain needs? I do like Jeremy Corbyn and many of his ideals. What part of the draft copy do you believe to be nonsense? I personally got excited by it even if I have taken it with a pinch of salt. It is a draft copy after all.

I firmly believe that if the final copy is anywhere as good as the draft edition appears to be then the public are going to have one hell of a decision to make but then good decision making has been in short supply by the electorate for a long time now so I would take that with a pinch of salt too.

Of course it's not costed. The corporation tax increase, for example, would be totally counterproductive. The Tories cut it from 28% under Gordon Brown to 19%, with further decrease planned. It led to an increase in the tax take over that period (see: here (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/548398/Corporation_Tax_Statistics_August_2016_FINAL.pdf)) , and companies invested the money in job creation. If he reverses it, he will not generate commensurate returns on that increase and there will almost certainly be a significant decrease in FDI and jobs in the UK market. It's the absolute last thing to be doing when there's no clear Brexit deal - we should be prepared to cut corporation tax fast and hard, if needed, to ensure continued competitiveness if the EU try to play silly buggers. The less said about its proposals on trade unions the better. You don't want to end up like the French.

The free tuition policy is also a nonsense. It's basically subsidising rich kids to go to university (see the lower access there is for poorer students in Scotland compared to their counterparts in the other component nations of the UK).

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

Of course it's not costed. The corporation tax increase, for example, would be totally counterproductive. The Tories cut it from 28% under Gordon Brown to 19%, with further decrease planned. It led to an increase in the tax take over that period (see: here (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/548398/Corporation_Tax_Statistics_August_2016_FINAL.pdf)) , and companies invested the money in the job creation. If he reverses it, he will not generate commensurate returns on that increase and there will almost certainly be a significant decrease in FDI and jobs in the UK market. It's the absolute last thing to be doing when there's no clear Brexit deal - we should be prepared to cut corporation tax fast and hard, if needed, to ensure continued competitiveness if the EU try to play silly buggers. The less said about its proposals on trade unions the better. You don't want to end up like the French.

The free tuition policy is also a nonsense. It's basically subsidising rich kids to go to university (see the lower access there is for poorer students in Scotland compared to their counterparts in the other component nations of the UK).

To be frank with you mate I don't understand a lot of the figures as politics isn't something I concern myself with a whole lot. I have only really paid it a little bit of attention in the past seven years or so. I would say the only thing that I have noticed on a personal level in that time is the bedroom tax as that had a direct impact on me but I would be lying if I was to sit here and say I understood what half of these figures and graphs meant.

I would like to know what the plan is for Brexit but then again, I have wanted to know that since before the referendum, after the referendum, I wanted to know that when David Cameron even offered a referendum given how vocal things appeared to get under UKIP.

It would appear to me that nobody knows what the future is going to entail and it's all just guess work. At least the Labour party have presented 'something' which is better than nothing. I even asked our local MP before getting fobbed off. You appear to know what you're talking about so would I be right in assuming you will be voting for the Tories? I ask because so far I have heard absolutely nothing from them other than sniping and mud slinging.

[GS]

I would vote Conservative. Not on the grounds that they're any good, but they're by far the least worst option.

[Waffdon]

I want to vote labour but it's pointless where I am. If you don't want independence you have to vote Tory. Simple.

:sick:

[Lewis]

He did. Arising from the economic situation in 2010:

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/net-borrowing-totalJ511-600x471.png

Them surpluses. What could have been,

[Abelxaviersdodgyhairdo]

I would vote Conservative. Not on the grounds that they're any good, but they're by far the least worst option.

I believe that to be the case too which is a sad indictment. I do believe that citizens of this country only have themselves to blame though.

I await the day that somebody comes an rips up the script. I do think Jeremy Corbyn might be looked at in future as the person who got the public thinking differently as whether the manifesto is costed or not, it appears to be very popular with a lot of people.

After Brexit, Donald Trump and the farce of the French elections I wouldn't be overly surprised if there is another shock awaiting the world.

[GS]

Them surpluses. What could have been,

It helps when you're turning a blind eye to the excesses of the capitalist corporatist scumbags as well.

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

I want to vote labour but it's pointless where I am. If you don't want independence you have to vote Tory. Simple.

Are you under Dundee east or west?

Labour were 2nd in east last time by about 2000 votes more than the tories but I wonder what the Corbyn effect will result in.

[GS]

863443999700508679

Excellent. The Tory attack lines won't work unless it looks like Labour are gaining.

[Lewis]

It's a tough one. Do you want them to get blasted, or would them improving their 2015 vote share be better because it would give the headbangers all the arguments they need to stay on [long enough to stitch it up for another one]?

[GS]

The ideal scenario would be for their vote share to increase marginally from 2015, but concentrated in safe seats. Corbyn would use it as grounds to hold on (it's not as if anybody can force him out), surely prompting some sort of split between the moderates and the nutjobs.

The Tory majority would therefore still be sufficiently vast to justify the early election, with their sweeping up the UKIP vote. Of all areas, a Tory surge of some worthwhile substance is imperative in Scotland.

I do wonder whether there's a deliberate line of thought in The Bunker that losing about sixty seats wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for them. They're not going to get the McDonnell amendment through the NEC, and they've managed to plant 'loyalists' in safe seats owing to the accelerated selection process, so if they lose a whack of MPs the threshold to get on the ballot for a new leadership election would be low enough that they might be able to squeeze their nutter candidate on. It would then let Jezza step aside to be replaced by someone less inept. The nightmare scenario here would be John McDonnell - not because he would ever win an election, but because he strikes me as being really a rather dangerous character.

[Lewis]

UKIP rolling at three per cent with YouGov is pretty lol, but is the Liberal Democrats being stuck on nine loller?

[Boydy]

Elections would be so much more fun if we didn't have political polling.

[GS]

UKIP rolling at three per cent with YouGov is pretty lol, but is the Liberal Democrats being stuck on nine loller?

It makes suggestions that the FIGHTBACK is a real thing laughable, if nothing else. I maintain a big part of the problem is Farron. He's shit.

[Lewis]

Has there been any polling on who the most SEETHING of SEETHING European citizens actually vote for? I mean the real bitter-ender sorts. The idiots buying that sad newspaper and nodding along to Ian Dunt. They probably number about twenty-ish per cent (48% lol), but I can't help thinking that most of them will be Jezza voters, which always made drawing them across a bit of an uphill struggle.

[GS]

There was some polling recently that split the Remain vote up, i.e. into those who voted that way but think the result should be implemented, and those who somehow want to stop it. There's around 40% - 55% of Remain voters (depending on which poll you read) who want a second referendum or the government to just ignore the result, with the rest thinking the result must be implemented regardless.

So it's not really a "48%" strategy - it's more of a 21-25% strategy, at absolute best. A decent number will be Lib Dem voters already, so the remainder are probably Jezza voters and/or people under 25. Yet these are the people who will never forgive the Lib Dems for going into coalition with the Tories, or for hiking tuition fees. The FT also did some good analysis the other week showing that the Remain vote, in areas where the Lib Dems weren't already the MP, would require a serious swing towards them that is quite unlikely.

I read "How the Tories won" recently, which detailed the Black Widow strategy for taking out the Lib Dems. The same arguments you had in 2015 to destroy the Lib Dems in the south-west (i.e. the SNP / Lib Dems propping up a shit Labour leader) are even more potent.

You have that, Farron either being unknown, disliked or not considered a heavyweight, and a general sense that the Lib Dems are a 'ruined' brand, and it's very, very difficult to see how they make any sort of inroads. Some of the recent polling has them winning back a couple of their Scottish seats, but that's probably because the unionists those areas (e.g. in Jo Swinson's former seat) simply see them as the best bet for beating the SNP there.

This is a very neat summary of where the Continuity Remain vote is going:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_yEJPCW0AUTKaa.png

[Lewis]

That is the sort of thing I was after. Cheers. It seems quite obvious really, which is probably why the Liberal Democrats failed to appreciate it.

[Yevrah]

How the fuck can there be any hard remainers that will vote UKIP?

[Henry]

Because of the stupid.

[GS]

That is the sort of thing I was after. Cheers. It seems quite obvious really, which is probably why the Liberal Democrats failed to appreciate it.

It looks like a huge strategic error on Farron's part, given they've went unashamedly for Continuity Remain. They'd have been far better saying "we accept the result, but our goal is the Norway model". You could at least pretend that it respected the result (it doesn't, but whatever) without alienating 75% of the electorate. When you throw in the aforementioned Tory coalition deal, tuition fees, cannabis legalisation - what vote are they aiming for exactly?

The real swing is the Conservatives keeping the vast majority of their own voters from 2015 and starting to sweep the Hardcore Leave vote from UKIP (and, seemingly, the majority of Lib Dem leavers). Ruthless electioneering.

[GS]

Link to the analysis on the FT, Lewis

https://www.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?desktop=true

[Lewis]

Subscribe to read. Never!

[GS]

You get one free article a week. If you go into 'incognito' mode, or whatever the equivalent is on your browser, you should be able to get into it.

[Baz]

Subscribe to read. Never!

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Cqvhrdcnv1cJ:https://www.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

[Lewis]

I was lolling at the Labour Party broadcast on after the local news, and it turns out Ken Loach made it. It's just Jezza spouting off in cutaways from crowds adoring him, and the odd voice-over of something like 'I ACTUALLY THINK HE IS A STRONG LEADER!' and 'WHAT WAS SO BAD ABOUT THE IRA ANYWAY?!' Give it a watch.

[GS]

He's hired someone as his "election chief" who was a member of the Communist Party until December, and thinks Stalin and North Korea are both alright. Some of the leftist commentators on Twitter have been going MENTAL about how it legitimises it. I assume it's Milne, given he's probably devastated that Russia didn't win the Cold War.

The IRA thing is unforgivable (McDonnell was even worse), so I'm rather surprised there are people of a supposedly sensible disposition (like Boydy) who are able to overlook it.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The more I see, the more I think Labour are going down to double figures in MPs.

[GS]

Their vote seems to be holding up surprisingly well, but apparently Wor Jez's strategy is to drive it up in safe seats and not worry about actually winning marginals.

[Lewis]

This is why the 'moderates' made a massive error spitting their collective dummy. When they lose, but nevertheless pile up votes in safer seats (which happen to be the only places Jezza seems to be bothering with), the headbangers can claim that if everybody had pulled their weight and campaigned as hard then they might have stood a better chance. Had they been clever they would have at least gone through the motions, taken the inevitable defeat (even a 2020 election would have been a defeat, if not quite a tanking on this scale), and said you had your chance lads we've done two elections on Stalinism now and bollocks.

But no, they shit the bed and now lol at them.

[Shindig]

The thing I'll give Jeremy credit for is he has ideals that he sticks to. And the guys behind him are all so weak, they'd stand by it all in government. Trump-ish.

[Boydy]

'on Stalinism' :D

[Jimmy Floyd]

Their vote seems to be holding up surprisingly well, but apparently Wor Jez's strategy is to drive it up in safe seats and not worry about actually winning marginals.
30% isn't 'holding up' if the Tories are in the high 40s.

Post election Labour will be reduced to such a narrow subset of the country (city seats and only the grimmest of post industrial hellscapes) that rebuilding their appeal will be incredibly difficult and take forever. There will inevitably be an agitation among people who never leave London to form a new centrist Macron party (whether through the Labour apparatus or otherwise) because they just have no idea what's going on.

The Tories are going to start winning places like Hartlepool, lots in Yorkshire, old mining areas in Wales. New territory for them.

[Lewis]

'on Stalinism' :D

I can't wait for the 2022 Conservative manifesto to pinch all of his wacky communist ideas.

[GS]

This is why the 'moderates' made a massive error spitting their collective dummy. When they lose, but nevertheless pile up votes in safer seats (which happen to be the only places Jezza seems to be bothering with), the headbangers can claim that if everybody had pulled their weight and campaigned as hard then they might have stood a better chance. Had they been clever they would have at least gone through the motions, taken the inevitable defeat (even a 2020 election would have been a defeat, if not quite a tanking on this scale), and said you had your chance lads we've done two elections on Stalinism now and bollocks.

But no, they shit the bed and now lol at them.

What I don't understand about this 'progressive alliance' is why they don't just join one party. If your views are so aligned that you can simply step aside in certain seats and not allow the electorate to make the choice themselves, then what is even the point of your party existing? Does anybody really need the Greens? The Lib Dems are barely relevant. There's basically one serious centre-right party, and the left are split into various factions of the Judean People's Front arguing over who should step aside for who. It's utterly preposterous.


30% isn't 'holding up' if the Tories are in the high 40s.

Post election Labour will be reduced to such a narrow subset of the country (city seats and only the grimmest of post industrial hellscapes) that rebuilding their appeal will be incredibly difficult and take forever. There will inevitably be an agitation among people who never leave London to form a new centrist Macron party (whether through the Labour apparatus or otherwise) because they just have no idea what's going on.

I meant purely on a percentage basis relative to where you'd expect them to be with the reds in charge. They were plumbing the depths of 25% for a while, with the expectation being it would probably erode further when there was even more scrutiny on them. It's obviously not indicative of what seats they're going to win, but somehow clinging to the same percentage as Red Ed with the current wasters in charge remains a surprise nonetheless.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Miliband got 30.4% and I'll offer anyone a bet that Jeremy doesn't come within 3% of that.

[GS]

I don't think he ultimately will either, for what it's worth.

[Henry]

Just been reading a bit. The Labour manifesto isn't even that radical. It doesn't go much further than Ed Milliband did.

Tory scum are going to level the same criticisms regardless of what the case is.

[GS]

It would destroy the economy, so those criticisms are quite valid.

[Magic]

Fuck the economy. I'd well vote Labour if I was English.

[Henry]

It would destroy the economy, so those criticisms are quite valid.

Depends what you mean by "destroy" and what you mean by "the economy". The Tories are doing a poor job on that by most measures that ought to be important.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Just been reading a bit. The Labour manifesto isn't even that radical. It doesn't go much further than Ed Milliband did.

Tory scum are going to level the same criticisms regardless of what the case is.

It's a weak manifesto, but where the current Labour leadership is concerned I think it's perfectly legitimate to go ad hominem rather than on policy. Nobody wants those wankers running the country.

[Henry]

It's a weak manifesto, but where the current Labour leadership is concerned I think it's perfectly legitimate to go ad hominem rather than on policy. Nobody wants those wankers running the country.

Labour Party at 0% in latest poll!*

*Sample size: 1

[GS]

Depends what you mean by "destroy" and what you mean by "the economy". The Tories are doing a poor job on that by most measures that ought to be important.

It's impossible to fund massive increases in public services by hammering the private sector and the middle class from all angles.

The result will be job losses, economic stagnation, increased borrowing and misery for everyone. I really don't understand how many times it has to fail before the left accept it's a complete non starter. It doesn't work.

[Henry]

The result will be job losses, economic stagnation, increased borrowing and misery for everyone.

At least three of those are already happening. And tempted as I am to berate you for your standard boilerplate, I'll ask a question instead. Do you consider the outcomes of the current economic model a success?

[Spammer]

The Scandinavians seem to be doing alright taxing the shit out of everyone.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If you have 4 million people and a shitload of trees, life is a little bit easier.

[phonics]

The banks will all move abroad once the finance passports run out so may as well tax them at 90% until then.

[Henry]

If you have 4 million people and a shitload of trees, life is a little bit easier.

Ah yes. Trees!

[GS]

I consider it to be a moderate success. Job creation is sound, unemployment is low. Earnings have stagnated, but comparing it to 2008 is a nonsense given everything that happened up until then was built on air.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Unemployment is the lowest since 1975 or something, I read yesterday. You can't just conjour the idea of job losses from your imagination.

[Henry]

When successfully getting the drones to work in shit jobs is a success, you know on whose behalf you're speaking.

[Kikó]

This Robin Hood financial transaction tax of 0.5% that Cons are suggesting is going to crush the financial sector even more and make it even easier to leave the UK.

[Jimmy Floyd]

This Robin Hood financial transaction tax of 0.5% that Cons are suggesting is going to crush the financial sector even more and make it even easier to leave the UK.

Great politics though even if it's awful economics. People out there in the country fucking hate London and financial services.

[Kikó]

Indeed even though it's the thing (services) that gives us as a country the competitive advantage over others. At least we don't need to worry about that when we leave Europe and we can look at the Irish with all our old jobs.

[GS]

When successfully getting the drones to work in shit jobs is a success, you know on whose behalf you're speaking.

At least they have jobs, which means tax income to the exchequer from companies and employees. The private sector pays for public services.

The idea that everyone should have a "good job", or that it's achievable, is ludicrous, by the way. What do you classify as a non shit job, exactly?

[GS]

Unemployment is the lowest since 1975 or something, I read yesterday. You can't just conjour the idea of job losses from your imagination.

This is it. Companies have used the corporation tax cut to invest in expansion and job creation. It's led to an increase in tax intake.

If Labour increase taxes by about 10% overnight, who do you think is going to lose out exactly? You're certainly not going to have companies ploughing FDI into a "hostile" business environment. Totally counterproductive, and would lead to significant impact on jobs.

Still, I suppose Jez can just employ them all in the public sector.

[GS]

£11bn to subsidise rich kids to go to university.

Superb.

[niko_cee]

This Robin Hood financial transaction tax of 0.5% that Cons are suggesting is going to crush the financial sector even more and make it even easier to leave the UK.

Isn't this a Labour policy? Or are the Conservatives suggesting it is going to crush the financial sector? Confused. Have they committed to one as well?

Anyway, leaving could be interesting seeing as a FTT is a desired policy of the EU/Eurozone, even if it is miles off being agreed.

No one should be particularly worried about a Labour government wrecking the economy seeing as you aren't going to have one.

[Magic]

£11bn to subsidise rich kids to go to university.

Superb.

Works ok in Scotland.

[phonics]

and Wales.

[GS]

Works ok in Scotland.

Where it has greatly increased the difficulty of poor students getting into university. So no it didn't.

[Magic]

Has it? Every cunt is at uni these days so I doubt it.

[GS]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/36392857

Funding fees means limiting places. That means demand outstrips supply, so grades go up. If grades go up, rich kids are far more likely to get those places. Hence the gap growing bigger, and it will continue to grow whilst the policy is in place.

There's also the £120m a year the SNP spend on giving EU students free tuition, for reasons passing understanding.

[Magic]

Ok but does nobody take in to account that poor kids are mostly thick as fuck?

[Kikó]

Isn't this a Labour policy? Or are the Conservatives suggesting it is going to crush the financial sector? Confused. Have they committed to one as well?

Anyway, leaving could be interesting seeing as a FTT is a desired policy of the EU/Eurozone, even if it is miles off being agreed.

No one should be particularly worried about a Labour government wrecking the economy seeing as you aren't going to have one.

Looks like I've got the wrong end of the stick there. You are right - it's Labours.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Welsh Wales party have been launching their manifesto.


Her party's "action plan" was designed to withstand the risks of a "cruel and reckless Tory party", she said.

Do centre left parties in other countries freely chuck around such language about centre right parties?

[GS]

Leanne Wood is completely out of her depth anyway. This all comes back to the Judean People's Front. It's a crowded field for the progressive vote, so they just try and outdo each other.

[GS]

Looks like I've got the wrong end of the stick there. You are right - it's Labours.

It would only be remotely feasible if it was a global tax, so no company could just move elsewhere etc. Without it, it's just a waste of time and completely counterproductive.

[Henry]

This is it. Companies have used the corporation tax cut to invest in expansion and job creation. It's led to an increase in tax intake.

It did not.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca3e5bd2-2a7e-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

Appealing to the Laffer Curve ought to disqualify you from any discussion of this kind.


The idea that everyone should have a "good job", or that it's achievable, is ludicrous, by the way. What do you classify as a non shit job, exactly?

A shit job is one that is unstable, poorly paid, in unsocial hours and so forth. A non-shit job is one that avoids these things, or compensates for them.
If making things better for people is ludicrous then we might as well all give up - unless again, you don't give a shit about anyone but the well off.

[Lewis]

The modern [mainstream] left is almost wholly defined by what it's against, rather than what it's for. The referendum exposed it reasonably well, since all of their big talk over the past few years fell to bits as soon as it meant indirectly agreeing with Nigel Farage, but you can probably trace it back to Margaret Thatcher donning them.

[GS]

Nope.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca3e5bd2-2a7e-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

You're regurgitating the most discredited "voodoo economics".



A shit job is one that is unstable, poorly paid, in unsocial hours and so forth. A non-shit job is one that avoids these things, or compensates for them.
If making things better for people is ludicrous then we might as well all give up - unless again, you don't give a shit about anyone but the well off.

Yep. It isn't voodoo economics. Companies had more capital, and the unemployment rate decreasing, more investment and further tax intake increasing are direct consequences of it.

Question - how do you expect private enterprise to invest in " stable, well paid" jobs if you're proposing to take more of their money in CT, make it unattractive as a place to do business, and then hammer the private incomes of the wealthy who are actually going to invest / run these companies?

It's a preposterous programme for government, and it really could only come from the intellectually dense who developed a view of the world in the student union and never changed it.

I notice you've managed to overlook the deeply unpleasant views that Corbyn and McDonnell share on the IRA. Perhaps you'd like to offer a view on why it can be overlooked by the electorate.

[Henry]

Yep. It isn't voodoo economics. Companies had more capital, and the unemployment rate decreasing, more investment and further tax intake increasing are direct consequences of it.

Did you bother to read the FT link? (Hardly a bastion of socialism.) It specifically says that there was a fall in business investment, and offers various other reasons for the increased take.

[niko_cee]

Do centre left parties in other countries freely chuck around such language about centre right parties?

Do European's do small c conservatism?

It's either total deference to the state and/or church or fascism isn't it?

[GS]

Did you bother to read the FT link? (Hardly a bastion of socialism.) It specifically says that there was a fall in business investment, and offers various other reasons for the increased take.

I've read it before, on account of not being chained to positions on account of ideology.

Lower taxes leads to positive outcomes, and I think that is especially pertinent post Brexit. We compete globally for business, and lower taxes and favourable allowable expenses regimes encourage investment (see: Ireland). This is the way forward, not baying at the moon for the socialist paradise that will finally work "if only it's done properly".

[Jimmy Floyd]

Do European's do small c conservatism?

It's either total deference to the state and/or church or fascism isn't it?

I dunno, what's Merkel, I'm sure Martin Schulz doesn't go around calling her evil and cruel.

[phonics]

I've read it before, on account of not being chained to positions on account of ideology.

Lower taxes leads to positive outcomes, and I think that is especially pertinent post Brexit. We compete globally for business, and lower taxes and favourable allowable expenses regimes encourage investment (see: Ireland). This is the way forward, not baying at the moon for the socialist paradise that will finally work "if only it's done properly".


Why collect tax at all then? Why not just let the corporations and individuals spend their money where they see fit if that's how you feel?

[Henry]

I've read it before, on account of not being chained to positions on account of ideology.

Then why have you decided to ignore it and the evidence it presents, in favour of repeating your ideological babble?

[GS]

Why collect tax at all then? Why not just let the corporations and individuals spend their money where they see fit if that's how you feel?

What a completely ridiculous point.

[GS]

Then why have you decided to ignore it and the evidence it presents, in favour of repeating your ideological babble?

"Ignoring the evidence" is an apt description of your entire world view.

Have you decided why the Corbyn/McDonnell views on the IRA aren't important or are you just going to keep ignoring it and hope nobody remembers?

[phonics]

What a completely ridiculous point.

What's a low tax rate that doesn't lead to positive outcomes? 4%? 12%?

[Henry]

"Ignoring the evidence" is an apt description of your entire world view.

That's nice. But I'd prefer you defend your position rather than lobbing insults about this or indeed the IRA.

You keep going on about low taxes leading to higher revenues and cited the corporation tax cut. The FT says that there were other reasons for higher revenues in that case. It list them and provides various figures, including one figure that shows that business investment (which you say increased) was in fact lower following the cut.

Do you disagree with what the article is saying? Is there something it doesn't mention? Or am I misrepresenting it?

If you can't or won't answer it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that you are simply repeating ideological bullet points.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What's a low tax rate that doesn't lead to positive outcomes? 4%? 12%?

You could ask the same thing about high taxes, i.e. why let anyone keep their money at all when the state could spend it more usefully for them (I'd love a crate of BRITISH PRODUCE food rations delivered to my door every Friday morning, and no child would go hungry).

[Henry]

You could ask the same thing about high taxes, i.e. why let anyone keep their money at all when the state could spend it more usefully for them (I'd love a crate of BRITISH PRODUCE food rations delivered to my door every Friday morning, and no child would go hungry).

You could, which is why there's no simple answer. In mathematical terms, an economy is a complex system with lots of feedback loops and changing circumstances. Sometimes it is good to lower taxes, other times it is good to raise them, and it is very hard to predict the effects whatever you do. Anyone subscribing to a model where there's some sort of smoothly curved relationship between tax rate and tax receipts is blinkered, to put it politely.

[Lewis]

Which is why bollocks to the models, and let's get philosophical (that is to say ideological).

[GS]

That's nice. But I'd prefer you defend your position rather than lobbing insults about this or indeed the IRA.

You keep going on about low taxes leading to higher revenues and cited the corporation tax cut. The FT says that there were other reasons for higher revenues in that case. It list them and provides various figures, including one figure that shows that business investment (which you say increased) was in fact lower following the cut.

Do you disagree with what the article is saying? Is there something it doesn't mention? Or am I misrepresenting it?

If you can't or won't answer it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that you are simply repeating ideological bullet points.

You're misrepresenting it and not considering like for like.

My points throughout have been based on the period 2010-2016; that is, the period with a Conservative chancellor and where the rate fell from 28% to what is now 19% (that is, tolerably medium term to overlook the one year comparison with its one off effects / exceptional items which the FT article is predicated on).

Your points re a decrease in business investment (of 2%, no less) relate only to 2016 and not the full period. Further, my point on "investment" was particularly relevant to FDI (a personal favourite). According to government statistics, 390k jobs have been created by FDI since 2010, with 116k created or safeguarded in 2016 alone. The UK remains the top European destination for investment from emerging markets. This is a boon to the economy, and tax rates / relief regimes are particularly prevalent for companies making these decisions (see: Ireland, where surveys of international companies clearly indicate that these are key drivers).

Intake was 36.6bn in 2010, increasing to 44.4bn in 2016, an increase of 21.2%. The unemployment rate when they took over was 7.8%. It's now 4.5%, which economists consider to be full employment in the modern sense of what is possible. Income tax receipts increased by 16.3% (to 168.5bn) despite an increase in the personal allowance from £6,475 to £10,600 and an increase in NIC (including employer NIC) of 19% (to 113.7bn) in the same period.

Steep cuts to corporation tax overnight don't work, in my view. Volume can't compensate for the sudden drop in tax revenues. However, this has been a staged decrease in the headline rate with accompany relief for lower earning workers through personal income tax relief. The cut in the upper tax take was offset by freezing the higher threshold repeatedly.

For this six year period, the tax intake has increased despite reductions in headline rates. Almost 44% pay no income tax. The top 1% more pay 27.5% of all income tax (up from 24.4% previously).

It's a medium term strategy and it works, and it needs to continue post Brexit with further cuts to ensure competitiveness with other developed economies.