The North Korea Thread

[John Arne]

Kimmy has been up to no good again.

The DPRK has confirmed that a "warhead exploded" during a nuclear test.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/sep/09/north-korea-nuclear-test-suspected-after-huge-seismic-explosion-detected-live

http://jakarta.coconuts.co/sites/jakarta.coconuts.co/files/field/image/kim_jong-un_0.jpg

Is it time to intervene? Is it fair to demand that the DPRK refrains from nuclear testing, whilst other countries are allowed? Is the country due to implode soon?

[John Arne]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4NN96epy-A

Gotta love the cadence of the Korean language.

Looks like they just set it off on the main road :D Quality health and safety.

774101332596666368

[Magic]

I love how BBC initially reported it as an earthquake.

[Shindig]

That's such a soviet throwback. :D

[phonics]

Just FYI John, the account you embedded is a parody account run by a couple of lawyers over in the States.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Is it time to intervene? Is it fair to demand that the DPRK refrains from nuclear testing, whilst other countries are allowed? Is the country due to implode soon?

There is no fairness in international relations. If it's in the interests of some countries to demand that, then they should/will demand it. Similarly, North Korea will demand whatever is in its interests to demand.

[John Arne]

Just FYI John, the account you embedded is a parody account run by a couple of lawyers over in the States.

Yeah, I've been following for a while now - he almost quit a few months ago because of the hassle of running it.

[Lewis]

They still have significantly less nuclear strength than the Americans had on VJ Day. Everybody needs to calm down.

[ItalAussie]

You'd have to assume that China would start to exert pressure on them if they ever actually looked like using one.

[7om]

Always makes me laugh when all the world leaders come out the woodwork to condemn the test. It's quite clear they don't give two shits what anybody thinks or the sanctions placed on them.

[Magic]

Yeah all those world leaders you never ever hear from apart from when NK act up...like Barack. Get back to the woodwork!

[Disco]

They can't actually be suicidal so the likelihood of them using it (assuming it's even viable) is pretty slim so it's all just posturing from here on.

[GS]

It's posturing, but the concern would be if they knew they were done for (whether because of internal revolt, a coup, invasion or whatever) and they might go full-blown mental and decide to take something down with them.

They'd need to have a death wish mind you, because the Americans could flatten the country in about a week if they really fancied it.

[Lewis]

There isn't that much to flatten.

[GS]

Well, precisely.

[Bernanke]

A North Korean refugee outflux would be fascinating (and horrific) to witness.

I really wonder how any sort of transition towards a democratic country would work.

[Lewis]

The South would have to annex it and run it like a zoo.

[Shindig]

Would the South even want it? Imagine the cost of getting that place up to standard.

[Disco]

They should just turn it into a giant Starcraft gulag, it's already half way there.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The South would have to annex it and run it like a zoo.

As if China would let that happen. They love that buffery goodness. It'll just turn into a shit Cuba eventually.

[bruhnaldo]

why wouldn't China just annex it themselves?

China basically bankrolls their entire country anyways? Isn't China one of their only real trade partners?

[Jimmy Floyd]

why wouldn't China just annex it themselves?

China basically bankrolls their entire country anyways? Isn't China one of their only real trade partners?

Because it's full of Koreans and it would be a total fucking nightmare. There are currently fairly barbaric internment camps for North Korean refugees in China, because they don't want them.

[GS]

If it came to it, I reckon the Chinese would 'allow' reunification. It'd be a bit like Germany, only significantly more drastic. Ultimately, it would keep the Koreans occupied for about a quarter of a century, and let the Chinese go and worry about other things like artificial islands and subjugating Taiwan.

The question would be whether the south would want them. I suspect there would be a strong 'emotional' pull in doing so, but it would probably bankrupt them without international support. Therefore, there's no doubt they'd be after generous international subsidies to take it on, given those in the north live on grass and the infrastructure must be borderline non-existent at this point. You'd also have to invest a fortune in clearing the DMZ.

Still, if the recent global crises have shown anything, it's that people love a good bit of virtue signalling and a viral campaign they can get behind for a week or two. So you'd probably crowd-fund the money and be able to start a parallel campaign to 'house a North Korean' because it's 'humane and compassionate and tolerant'.

[Lewis]

It would be interesting to see them do it. East Germany was reasonably well developed, and it avoided a lot of a weirdness that the other pinko countries experienced (they all watched West Germany telly), so it was easy enough to get with the programme once it fell to bits. The North Koreans would probably have to be nursed into it over a number of years so they didn't all go mental at the first whiff of broadband.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The south would definitely want them. There are still divided families and all sorts.

[Lewis]

You could be our man on the ground, reporting on The Company's attempts to open a box factory in Haeju.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Samsung would just open a bigger, loss making box factory first.

[Lewis]

lol at their missile test failing after everybody had shat the bed. I don't know if people realise how difficult it is to make decent ballistic missiles. It is much easier to make nuclear devices, and nuclear warheads, than it is to build a mega rocket capable of hitting a specific point five thousand miles away (Los Angeles, for example), which is why they have been chucking these things into the sea since the early-nineties.

[Byron]

I do wonder how much the Chinese really want to bother with them now. I imagine if Trump wanted to steamroller them, China would offer the token protest and that would be that.

[GS]

The Americans could steamroller them with ease if they really wanted to. The concern would be whether they would just indiscriminately fire their entire arsenal (or what's left of it) into South Korea and flatten Seoul. It's not as Jong Un gets to stay in place if North Korea collapses. There's probably a better than average chance that half of them would fall into the sea, mind you.

[Lewis]

If China are that terrified of the Americans being right on their border through a unified Korea, why not just take American forces out of Korea? The reunified Korean armed forces would be more than strong enough to handle themselves, and the Americans could just disperse their FIGHTING MEN AND WOMEN to their other bases (backed up as they are by all of those aircraft carriers begging to be sunk by a fifty quid missile).

[Shindig]

Trump just fancies a show of force to make himself feel better about himself. Putin 101. Minus the approval ratings. If it was to kick off, could you guarantee a surrender out of Kim Jong Un? Could ya shite. And if you off him, the populous lose their fucking minds.

[GS]

What do you advocate instead, then?

[Shindig]

Bus them out by the backdoor and arrange some deal with the Americans where they keep acting as figureheads.

OR let the situation happen where the populous go nuts, wait for them to kill themselves and let some South Koreans move in.

[Byron]

You could sell the second plan to South Koreans as an expansion of the country, some sort of 'lebensraum'

[Lewis]

I reckon as soon as the South got near enough to the capital the army stiffs would do him in and negotiate themselves a Daewoo and a pension.

[Shindig]

Guys, remember that eejit that nicked a propaganda sign?

He's been in a coma for over a year (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-40264468)

Whuh-oh.

[Shindig]

Kid dies as soon as they get him home. I fear there could be actual bother from this.

[Raoul Duke]

I don't really see any end to this other than the Yanks going in balls deep to NK. They're not going to stop their nuclear missile research and it'd be mental to let them have them. If it's possible to stop them then it is only a matter of time until they'll have to strike to shut it down.

Although I'm not even sure if NK have conventional firepower that could hit the US coast now.

[Magic]

Worse than the middle east if that happens.

In terms of financial hit.

[7om]

As has been discussed at length, any 'balls deep' intervention would require the South to accept mass deaths in Seoul and border cities and why would they when status quo can carry on infinitely while Kim fires his crap rockets into the sea. It's a deadlock at this point; we will just throw sanctions at them and they'll carry on with their brinkmanship. Plebs like this kid and that Matthew Miller only have themselves to blame when they risk going there and offer themselves up as bait.

[Shindig]

It's telling that the US don't make an effort to bring these kids home.

[John Arne]

I don't really see this as a 'final straw' issue, especially as 9 prisoners at Guantanamo have died whilst being illegally held by the US. It's all a bit pot-kettle-black, this.

[John Arne]

I still reckon if you could take out Kim and his 4 or 5 henchmen in a surgical or stealth strike - the remaining regime would happily surrender immediately on the condition of leniency and aid.

[Henry]

I reckon the endgame will be some sort of internal regime change in North Korea. It can't be stable over the long term.

[Disco]

It will change when China finally get bored of their shit and propping them up becomes more trouble than it's worth. That seems a far more likely option than American military intervention.

[Lewis]

This (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/) is worth reading.

[John Arne]

This (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/) is worth reading.

That was a good read, though I don't think the author gave enough though to the third option, decapitation - he rather skimmed over it pretty quickly.

[John Arne]

James Dresnok, the Yank who has lived (and had two kids) in the DPRK since the Korean War reportedly died last November according to his sons.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/21/american-soldier-james-dresnok-who-defected-to-north-korea-has-died-say-sons

If you haven't watched the documentary about him - it's worth a watch.

[John]

The Japenese reckon North Korea have launched a missile at them.

[Boydy]

What. Any links?

Is this the end?

[GS]

It landed in the sea - it's fine.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[Mazuuurk]

For those of you that know this stuff better than I, what could we actually expect to happen if North Korea actually drew blood by either a missile or lets say they try to properly nuke somewhere but fail?

Wouldn't the main result be that they get completely annihilated themselves?

[GS]

If it was just a missile, I suspect you'd see mass OUTRAGE but a reluctance to go heavy in case they did something even more stupid. Probably heavy sanctions, huge diplomatic pressure, emergency UN meetings, and, at a stretch, some measured retaliatory strikes. The Koreans would probably try and pass it off as 'human error' - a test that went wrong, which would give everyone an out.

If it was a nuclear weapon, they're being erased from the face of the earth because there would be no alternative.

[Magic]

China would be fucked with a load of shit eating poor borderline retarded cunts to be chewed up on shitty elevators or construction sites.

[niko_cee]

It was nice knowing you all.

[Mazuuurk]

If it was just a missile, I suspect you'd see mass OUTRAGE but a reluctance to go heavy in case they did something even more stupid. Probably heavy sanctions, huge diplomatic pressure, emergency UN meetings, and, at a stretch, some measured retaliatory strikes. The Koreans would probably try and pass it off as 'human error' - a test that went wrong, which would give everyone an out.

If it was a nuclear weapon, they're being erased from the face of the earth because there would be no alternative.

Yeah OK.

But this doomsday talk, see Boydy above, that you keep hearing everywhere. How real is that? If they do get wiped out, for instance, by a bunch of retaliatory nukes, let's say - apart from millions of people dying which of course is horrible in itself, how would it affect the rest of the world and planet?

[-james-]

Trump to have a quick glance at "the codes" if he's not feeling important enough after his 4am twitter sesh tonight.

[Ian]

Would they get nuked and risk fucking all their neighbours over or would they just be hit with an unprecedented amount of non-nuclear power?

[Lewis]

I don't think they would get nuked back for that reason. The Americans would be forced to blow everything with metal in it to pieces, but irradiating your mates in doing so isn't a goer.

[GS]

Surely they could just use the MOAB on the bunkers. It depends if they have mobile capability, I suppose, and how targeted they can be.

I couldn't see nuclear weapons if there's any sensible alternative.

[Boydy]

I posted a link to a podcast about what war with North Korea would look like recently. I assumed it was in here but it's not. Was it in the US politics thread? It's worth a listen.

[Boydy]

It was in that thread. Here it is.


I was listening to a podcast the other day about what war with North Korea would look like and it was fucking terrifying. It was a BBC radio show. I'll see if I can find a link, it's worth a listen.

EDIT: Here we go
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p029399x/episodes/downloads

[Shindig]

I suppose, if North Korean want a bit of clout in negotiations, showing military force is the only thing they have. It's not like they have money or stuff to trade.

[John Arne]

Exactly. It's all leverage. I'm still not entirely sure that the North would ever bomb the south, given that they refer to the people in the south as their fellow countrymen ("brothers & sisters).

[Mazuuurk]

Read this on CNN:


The test shows the mobility of North Korea's arsenal, and may have been intended to deliver a message that pre-emptive US strikes on missile launch facilities could land uncomfortably close to civilians, Ripley said.

This is some high-level guessing game shit. Sounds like something out of a Game of Thrones "war room plotting" scene or Sky Sports Transfer Window reporting.

[Shindig]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41139445

Imagine if one of these tests went seriously wrong within North Korea.

[John Arne]

There was an explosion back in 2004, however, it was non-nuclear - but still big anough to have caused some serious seismic activity.

[Yevrah]

At what point should the international community do something about this? It's all very well lolling it off for now, but when does that time come?

[Ian]

You get the feeling that various nations will be getting themselves as ready as they possibly can without actually putting men and equipment around North Korea.

[GS]

The optimum time to do something would have been several years ago. It does make a mockery of the idea that having a chat to these people is always going to be the way forward.

[Shindig]

What good is ruling a country if it's just a hole in the ground? There's a response to this and it's sanctions or negotiation. The former does nothing and the latter cites a dangerous precedent. Stalemate. Unless North Korea amass such an arsenal that they can start giving some up.

[Lewis]

They still have significantly less nuclear strength than the Americans had on VJ Day. Everybody needs to calm down.

It sounds like we're up to 1948 now. Try to remain calm.

[Spikey M]

Part of me wants them to hit somewhere shit - like Guam to be fair - just to see in Trump has the minerals to crater the shit out of them.

[Lewis]

904377075049656322

That would be interesting.

[Spikey M]

Considering China is their main external supplier (I presume) that would be pretty much impossible.

[John Arne]

Yeah, there is no way on earth that the US is stopping trade with China.

[Lewis]

But China might stop all trade with North Korea.

[Spikey M]

Not because the US have threatened them into it.

[John Arne]

But China might stop all trade with North Korea.

I think it's highly, highly unlikely that China would consider stopping trade with N.Korea because the US asked them too.

EDIT: In fact, if China was already considering it, it's less likely to happen now that it could be seen as kow-towing to the US.

[Lewis]

The Chinese basically trade economic growth for not having any rights, and the minute that their economy stops motoring along at its current rate the waxworks who run the place will be in serious trouble. With that in mind, they would change their name to Wankerland if it kept things on an even keel.

[Foe]

If North Korea are stupid enough to land so much as as a beach ball on Guam there's millions of proud (stupid) American's who will think nothing of signing up to smash the whole country into the ground which is what Disco Donnie will advocate.

What you've got to hope is that there's some semblance of reality within the North Korean military hierarchy somewhere who will realise they need to basically commit treason to protect the country and take him out if he so much as motions that he's going to engage the US in violence.

[John Arne]

Yeah, but there no threat of the US actually going through with it. The US would be as equally fucked if it suddenly stopped trade with China. I mean, the iPhone 8 is out soon.....

[John]

The biggest reason Trump won't stop trade with China is that he makes a shitload of money from it, and Ivanka's company has a load of trademarks there that let her make a shitload of money.

[Lewis]

Yeah, but there no threat of the US actually going through with it. The US would be as equally fucked if it suddenly stopped trade with China. I mean, the iPhone 8 is out soon.....

In the short-term, but the Indians could just manufacture all of their tat eventually. Meanwhile, the Chinese start eating each other.

[GS]

It'd be a laugh to see them try it, if nothing else.

[Yevrah]

The BBC put this up on their Asian site a few weeks ago, detailing three reasons why people shouldn't be worried.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40882877

Isn't number 1 the sort of fuzzy thinkwank that meant World War One shouldn't have happened?

[Lewis]

With the First World War it was everybody thinking that nobody could really handle a war because it would be too complicated, rather than nobody wanting one (although nobody who wanted one really wanted the one they got either).

[Magic]

Isn't it great how everyone assumes they know what KJU wants or doesn't want. It's not about THE PENINSULA or preservation. This is a man who was raised to think exactly what his father peddled. He probably believes it all too.

[phonics]

Isn't it great how everyone assumes they know what KJU wants or doesn't want. It's not about THE PENINSULA or preservation. This is a man who was raised to think exactly what his father peddled. He probably believes it all too.

?

He was taught at the school down the road from me on the same syllabus and was largely thought of as a shy kid that liked american cinema. From what we can gather, he didn't want anything to do with running the country but had to when his dad popped his clogs and has been spending his time doing his best not to get murdered by the people around him.

[Spammer]

Girlfriend is in South Korea for the next couple of weeks :uhoh:

[Magic]

?

He was taught at the school down the road from me on the same syllabus and was largely thought of as a shy kid that liked american cinema. From what we can gather, he didn't want anything to do with running the country but had to when his dad popped his clogs and has been spending his time doing his best not to get murdered by the people around him.

Lol there's absolutely no evidence of that whatsoever.

You've literally just pulled that from Wiki, having just read it. :D

Spastic!

The important thing was he attended the best 'REIGEME' training University (FACT!) so is indoctrinated as fuck as to what the Norkies believe in as a whole, probably more than most.

[phonics]

Nah, it's called being informed about the various dictators you go to school with. Saddams daughter was in the year above, we had 2 Bin Ladens on our campus alone. I think Chelsea Clinton was there for a short period, 6 body guards when I saw her being shown around.

[Magic]

Of course, children and school ground rumour being taken vociferously as fact by someone who clearly doesn't deal with the truth.

I'm sure Dubya went to my school, can confirm rumour behind bike shed 17 years ago smh

[phonics]

If you really need to feel better about things by thinking we're being guided to the end of earth by evil geniuses rather than large failsons, I'm sorry to have dashed that.

[Magic]

Nobody said that, I'm just saying 'preserving the reigeme' is not what the reigeme believe, according to the books I've read. Remember it's a total and utter autocracy, that means regardless of what any advisor things young Kimmy boy will do whatever he thinks is best, and if that means sticking it to the Yanks I'm sure he'd have the backing of the indoctrinated population, because they absolutely fucking hate them.

[Kikó]

Regime.

[Magic]

I know, can you believe Chrome spell checker doesn't pick it up? emigre and reemerge were the suggestions. Wankers.

[Henry]

Anyone notice that this gets worse every time the US gets more belligerent? Barring the collapse of the regime from within and a transition to something better, swallowing a bit of pride and negotiating something is the only way out of this that doesn't risk nuclear war.

[GS]

Like the negotiations before which got precisely nowhere?

[Magic]

Anyone notice that this gets worse every time the US gets more belligerent? Barring the collapse of the regime from within and a transition to something better, swallowing a bit of pride and negotiating something is the only way out of this that doesn't risk nuclear war.

Nuclear war is pointless, I read something about ballistic weapons being much more effective than a flat out nuke.

[Lewis]

A bottle of piss is a 'ballistic weapon'.

[Magic]

If you want to destroy an already fucked country you don't nuke it to vaporise people, you target specific things like water plants, energy generators, schools, hospitals, roads etc. Carpet bombing is fun and so is total annihilation of a city but if you really want people to die slowly and painfully do that shit instead. Or I'm up for a bit of siege action ala Stalingrad. Let's watch them eat each other.

[Lewis]

They will still have 'samples' of some right horrible biological filth that they could quickly weaponise if the North Korean borders are as sealed as they claim.

[Pepe]

I love Magic coming and telling us how great it is that everyone considers themselves an expert in the matter, the useless twats, and then goes ahead and gives us his expert take.

[Shindig]

What if they get all Third Reich and try to torch the place on the way out?