The UK Politics Thread [Wot did Jez do now...]

[Davgooner]

I just think they're a bunch of horse rapists.

[phonics]

Is it weird that Mert has gone from saying that Obama using executive decrees was making a mockery of democracy to defending the monarchy and wanting 'the god emperor' or whatever.

Feels kind of like those rich and powerful men that pay to be embarrassed and shamed or whatever.

[Henry]

Yep, more evidence of mert's schitzophrenia. The US was founded on opposition to the arbitrary rule of a constitutional monarch.

[Lewis]

The monarchy was barely an issue. They framed their objections with reference to what people 'within the realm of England' (and everything that comes with it) were entitled to.

[GS]

At least you could put a number on Scottish Oil. GS is just saying the word "income" over and over again as if it's fact.

You can refer to the annual accounts of the Crown Estate if you want to check for yourself. I'll freely admit that determining how much of that we'd get anyway is a complete fool's errand, but the weight of historic reverence that exists for the monarchy, amplified by the fact it still exists, will almost certainly make a positive contribution. On the subject of Scottish oil, the SNP's forecasts for that amply demonstrate the complete waste of time that is forecasting in general.


That's the main thing isn't it?

I agree that the money is irrelevant. I even said so.

As for representing the state, couldn't you just pay Lewis minimum wage to go do that? Heard his good at histories.

It's not just a case of turning up and shaking hands. The monarchy seems to be widely respected globally, so it carries weight when you ferry some foreign head of state into Buckingham Palace for a state banquet hosted by the Queen. She's also very, very good at what she does - probably because it's been her job for 64 years. She has no stated public opinions, so no head of state is walking in with a prejudice against her personally for a previously held public position. Imagine John McDonnell, for example, meeting the First Minister of Northern Ireland whilst on record as saying IRA terrorists should be honoured. Fuck that.

If we elected some ex-politician to the role after their retirement, we'd end up with some ghastly individual like Harriet Harman who would, no doubt, take it upon herself to lecture the King of Saudi Arabia on women's rights if they came for a state visit.

[GS]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjULhDrWEAA22fb.jpg

Fucking hell.

[Boydy]

The King of Saudi Arabia could probably do with a lecture on women's rights, tbf.

[Lewis]

The Queen donned him by driving.

[Distal Rho]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2575505/Letter-paedophile-group-links-Harriet-Harman-Patricia-Hewitt-AFTER-said-marginalised.html

[GS]

The King of Saudi Arabia could probably do with a lecture on women's rights, tbf.

You'd get nowhere. These things will happen at the proper pace. We need to stop pretending that the west acts as sole arbiter of what is and isn't on.

Better yet, would you really want to see the result of popular elections in Saudi Arabia?

[GS]

Nolan is a shock jock, so you shouldn't be surprised. He adopts contrarian positions to wind everybody up.

[Henry]

If we elected some ex-politician to the role after their retirement, we'd end up with some ghastly individual like Harriet Harman who would, no doubt, take it upon herself to lecture the King of Saudi Arabia on women's rights if they came for a state visit.

The horror!

Oh no, wait, that would be a good thing.

[GS]

No, it wouldn't. Because it would damage relations and make it more difficult to actually get anything of actual substance done. That's not the role of a ceremonial head of state either, by the way, but that would be beside the point.

[Henry]

Relations should be damaged, but you've made it quite clear that getting the Saudi's to stop being such knobs is an entirely secondary concern to you.

As are all of these fiscal arguments in favour of the monarchy. You just like the institution because of its trappings and you don't care about popular sovereignty.

[Pepe]

So it's not just shaking hands but shaking hands and not having an opinion? Oof, that does sound rough.

[GS]

Relations should be damaged, but you've made it quite clear that getting the Saudi's to stop being such knobs is an entirely secondary concern to you.

As are all of these fiscal arguments in favour of the monarchy. You just like the institution because of its trappings and you don't care about popular sovereignty.

Relations should not be damaged, because you get no gain whatsoever from it and a lot of potential difficulties. This is the sort of holier-than-thou shite that gets you nowhere. Do you suggest we fall out with every government that you don't agree with?

It should also be self-evident that our having a go at the Saudis is not going to stop them being knobs in any way, shape or form. Nor is it our right to dictate to other countries what they should or should not be doing in their own internal affairs.

[Henry]

Relations should not be damaged, because you get no gain whatsoever from it and a lot of potential difficulties. This is the sort of holier-than-thou shite that gets you nowhere. Do you suggest we fall out with every government that you don't agree with?

There are vanishingly few governments as despicable as the Saudia Arabian one. You're damned right we should fall out with those.


Nor is it our right to dictate to other countries what they should or should not be doing in their own internal affairs.

I disagree.

[GS]

There are vanishingly few governments as despicable as the Saudia Arabian one. You're damned right we should fall out with those.

I see. What's your criteria for deciding which governments we should piss off, then?

Also, please address the second point on what we could expect to achieve from doing so other than making you feel smug and superior.

[GS]

I disagree.

Underpinning your ridiculous view that we (or, more specifically, you) are the sole arbiter of what is and isn't acceptable, is this even more ridiculous notion that one could impose western values overnight in foreign countries and expect everything will just go swimmingly.

These things must happen at the proper pace. Imposing westernised democracy on a society held together by the twin pillars of the House of Saud and Wahhabism could well lead to the complete collapse of Saudi Arabia and a significant domino effect regionally.

[Henry]

Underpinning your ridiculous view that we (or, more specifically, you) are the sole arbiter of what is and isn't acceptable

I don't think I'm in a minority when I declare that executing people for sorcery, or homosexuality, or blogging is unacceptable.

But since you're now on your high-horse of declaring everything you disagree with as ridiculous, holier-than-thou and smug, I'm off.

[GS]

I don't think I'm in a minority when I declare that executing people for sorcery, or homosexuality, or blogging is unacceptable.

But since you're now on your high-horse of declaring everything you disagree with as ridiculous, holier-than-thou and smug, I'm off.

I'm sure the debate will miss your repeated rejection of common sense in favour of fantasy.

[Boydy]

The Queen donned him by driving.

http://cdn.celebritycarsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/Queen-Elizabeth-Range-Rover-600x480.jpg

They see me rollin', they hatin'...

:cool:

[Boydy]

I look forward to the Queen meeting Kim Jong Un though.

[phonics]

:D

[Pepe]

Is she wearing a hoodie? :D

[Magic]

The Queen does appear to be the shit. From dissing the 'rude' Chinese to swagging it in the Range, coolest Monarch ever. :cool:

[GS]

Is she wearing a hoodie? :D

She was probably in her late eighties there, I would suggest it's most likely a headscarf

[Magic]

https://uk.pinterest.com/pin/95349717085741765/?from_navigate=true

I notice some absolute cunt probably from America has a meme on Pinterest referring to her as a 'grandma', probably with no idea who she actually is. Classless motherfuckers.

[Pepe]

Denim hoodie says the internet.

[Pepe]

Classless motherfuckers.

Yeah you tell 'em!

[Magic]

Don't you have some majestic European Baroque architecture to disparage?

[GS]

Venezuela is finally on the brink of collapse after years of economic mismanagement - http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/28/world/americas/venezuela-economic-government-collapse.html?_r=0

309065744954580992

That went well.

[Lewis]

Who saw that coming? Oh. Everybody.

[GS]

The socialist revolution will continue once it's purified itself of the malcontents, one assumes.

[GS]

The fucking state of these lads today.

David Cameron, a few weeks ago, was using PMQs to taunt Corbyn about Khan's supposed extremist links. Today he's saying he's a top lad and pretending he never said any of it. John McDonnell then hits back at Khan for sharing a platform with Tories, suggesting that the very act of doing so discredits the Labour party.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjzgCb3UoAAAhm2.jpg

Alright, John, mate.


They literally treat everybody else as if they're dense.

[phonics]

They literally treat everybody else as if they're dense.

He finally arrives at the issue. Welcome to post 2002 politics.

[GS]

Everybody recognises the issue, but there comes a point where it's so ludicrous and transparent as to merit open contempt rather than a rueful shake of the head.

[elth]

An interesting read on how Corbyn's appears to be failing, even on his own terms.

https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/abi-wilkinson-i-was-rooting-corbyn-he-has-let-me-down?x

Anyone seen the Vice documentary referred to? Sounds worth a watch.

[Lewis]

'I am naive and I don't know how socialists operate. Invoice to follow.'

[GS]

An interesting read on how Corbyn's appears to be failing, even on his own terms.

https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/abi-wilkinson-i-was-rooting-corbyn-he-has-let-me-down?x

Anyone seen the Vice documentary referred to? Sounds worth a watch.

When do those of us who knew this was coming collect our prizes?

The issue for Labour now is how to move past this, because the membership aren't going to vote for some Liz Kendall type who'll re-establish New Labour doctrine.

[GS]

On a separate note, "Guido" has gone big on Lib Dem electoral expenses. Nick Clegg is in the firing line, and it does look like a good old-fashioning "move things around and hope no-one looks closer" exercise:

http://order-order.com/2016/06/01/revealed-how-nick-clegg-cooked-the-books-for-17652/

[Lewis]

Twitter has been shitting itself over #toryelectionfraud for weeks as well, even though the most blatant examples seem to be from other parties.

[GS]

Cat Smith seems to be in some difficulty as well. You suspect it's widespread practice.

[GS]

An interesting read on how Corbyn's appears to be failing, even on his own terms.

https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/abi-wilkinson-i-was-rooting-corbyn-he-has-let-me-down?x

Anyone seen the Vice documentary referred to? Sounds worth a watch.

To follow on from this, he's doing worse than Miliband was at the same stage with the wider public:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ci0LP8-WEAQs_Hq.jpg

You suspect that's not the sort of verdict that's going to be turned around in one election cycle, although there is the variant of the possible Tory implosion over the referendum which could muddy the waters. In a normal cycle, on top of crap local election results, they'd be looking at losing seats - again - in 2020.

[Bartholomert]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjYLWadz5Yc

[Lewis]

Did you get a vote on the universal basic income, phonics? I reckon one of those could be quite good provided it was accompanied by everything (schools and that rather than the Navy) being privatised. Otherwise it would presumably just Zimbabwe the economy, or have to depend on such a lol tax system that everything you 'gain' would be hoovered straight back up.

[GS]

It would never work, and would completely ruin the economy. Where does the money come from, for starters? The Greens wanted something like that in the UK, and the cost was estimated at something daft like £240bn.

[Lewis]

The money would come from what we currently spend on health/education/dole, but then it would obviously have to be more than seventy quid a week or whatever they wanted.

[GS]

If we went with your version, then yes - but you'd have to maintain certain 'national' expenditure such as defence, government, infrastructure and rudimentary public services (like bin collection). But the type of lads who would introduce a UBI (alright, John McDonnell (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/05/bank-of-england-brexit-preparations-uk-banks)) would never take money away from public services.

The uncomfortable truth is that you couldn't trust people to actually spend the money on what they'd need to spend it on. You'd have to introduce parallel legislation making certain expenditure 'legal requirements', and if you do that what's the point.

[Bartholomert]

Yep, more evidence of mert's schitzophrenia. The US was founded on opposition to the arbitrary rule of a constitutional monarch.

Eh. I'm just saying people who don't like the monarchy are usually pussies.

[Byron]

Yeah, George and the boys were right beta type wankers.

[Bartholomert]

Did you get a vote on the universal basic income, phonics? I reckon one of those could be quite good provided it was accompanied by everything (schools and that rather than the Navy) being privatised. Otherwise it would presumably just Zimbabwe the economy, or have to depend on such a lol tax system that everything you 'gain' would be hoovered straight back up.

I actually wrote an economics paper on the merits of a basic guaranteed income to replace our current welfare system. It's not a bad idea (except that the poor would just use the money to buy drugs instead of purchasing health care and food).

[Kikó]

Because of course, cocaine is a poor man's past time.

[Lewis]

I actually wrote an economics paper on the merits of a basic guaranteed income to replace our current welfare system. It's not a bad idea (except that the poor would just use the money to buy drugs instead of purchasing health care and food).

Wealthy leftists could privatise socialism and contribute towards relief funds. Did you cover that?

[Bartholomert]

Wealthy leftists could privatise socialism and contribute towards relief funds. Did you cover that?

You mean charity? Pretty sure leftists are only into distributing other peoples wealth.

[Lewis]

I've seen maps that suggest that the more conservative a state (American states) is the more money the people give to charity, but I think most of it goes to Jesus.

[Bartholomert]

I've seen maps that suggest that the more conservative a state (American states) is the more money the people give to charity, but I think most of it goes to Jesus.

Yep, conservatives give 30% more on average to charities than liberals. And, I know you can google but I quite like this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/opinion/21kristof.html

Bonus: "As individuals, Europeans are far less charitable than Americans. Americans give sums to charity equivalent to 1.67 percent of GNP...The British are second with 0.73 percent, while the stingiest people on the list are the French, at 0.14 percent."

[phonics]

Did you get a vote on the universal basic income, phonics? I reckon one of those could be quite good provided it was accompanied by everything (schools and that rather than the Navy) being privatised. Otherwise it would presumably just Zimbabwe the economy, or have to depend on such a lol tax system that everything you 'gain' would be hoovered straight back up.


No im only allowed a vote on local issues. Even if I had I would have voted against it. Our version of the dole is too good to get rid for that nonsense. You'd just end up losing out on that and then having food prices rise even higher than they already are. It comes up once every 6 months due to our absolutely awesome version of democracy that should be instituted world wide but it wont get more than 15% of the vote or so.

[Shindig]

Seemed like a dumb thing that did well to come to vote, really.

[phonics]

Seemed like a dumb thing that did well to come to vote, really.


Its the greatness of Swiss democracy, a bunch of people can come together to ask for a vote on something and a larger group of society comes together to agree its a bad idea. How its not been adapted or at least got some legs behind itacross the world is beyond me.

[Bartholomert]

Its the greatness of Swiss democracy, a bunch of people can come together to ask for a vote on something and a larger group of society comes together to agree its a bad idea. How its not been adapted or at least got some legs behind itacross the world is beyond me.

Because direct democracy is a bad idea.

[GS]

Having referenda on everything is pointless - it devalues parliamentary democracy, in effect saying that there's no point having these people because anything important will just go to referenda.

Important constitutional questions go to referenda here e.g. the Good Friday Agreement, changing the voting system, Scottish independence and EU membership. That, to me, seems the correct way of using them.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The whole reason you have legislators is that people's shopping list of demands for policies they like would conflict with each other in the real world. You need to have an overarching strategy for your programme of government, rather than just ticking the right individual boxes.

Switzerland is a bizarre mountain kingdom full of tax avoiders and fucking weirdos, I don't know why we'd aspire to be like them in any way.

[phonics]

You both seem to have missed the vital point of direct democracy. Any referenda that passes gets a vote in the parliament. Any parliament vote goes to referenda. It's the far superior version of checks and balances that you seek in the House of Lords.


Switzerland is a bizarre mountain kingdom full of tax avoiders and fucking weirdos, I don't know why we'd aspire to be like them in any way.

Says the man who wants pretty much their deal with the EU with less freedom of movement.

[GS]

No, it's not.

Put a vote on lowering taxes for everybody and increasing investment in public services to referenda - both will pass. Never mind that it would bankrupt the country. Just because a policy is popular doesn't mean it's sensible government.

[phonics]

No, it's not.

Put a vote on lowering taxes for everybody and increasing investment in public services to referenda - both will pass. Never mind that it would bankrupt the country. Just because a policy is popular doesn't mean it's sensible government.

You both don't understand the system and think incredibly low of society at large.

P.S. Why do you trust polling being pro-conservative ideals if you think the public at large would vote on such a scenario?

[GS]

I know enough about the system to know that 'direct democracy' wouldn't work here. Our system works perfectly well.

And no, I don't think 'low of society' because I don't think everybody should get to weigh in on every issue because 'direct democracy, mate'. That's why we have elections - to vote for people to do that for us. If they do a shit job, we vote for somebody else. This is the main reason why the EU doesn't work - you can't take a ballot paper with Jean-Claude Juncker's name on it and put a cross or tick beside somebody else's name because he's done a shit job.

Major constitutional questions are the exception to the above.

[phonics]

If they do a shit job, we vote for somebody else.

5 years later.

P.S. Absolutely dogshit reply.

[GS]

5 years later.

Yes, when they've had sufficient opportunity to demonstrate whether or not they're worth voting for again or whether we should try somebody else.

We could move to an American model where they vote on the House of Representatives every two years, but then everybody just spends the entire two year term gearing up for re-election again. Five years ensures the government can get on with governing, and there is a sufficient body of evidence for the electorate to weigh. Unless you're in the north, where Labour could bankrupt the country and they lack sufficient capacity to vote for anybody else on the ballot paper because it would be considered treasonous to the working man.

I would, however, be repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act immediately on account of it being pointless and another Liberal Democrat vanity project.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Says the man who wants pretty much their deal with the EU with less freedom of movement.

Don't confuse me with Nigel Farage/GS, I may yet even bottle it and vote Remain for those reasons. It's more the fucking ridiculous Remain campaign and those leading it that I have an issue with.

[phonics]

Don't confuse me with Nigel Farage/GS, I may yet even bottle it and vote Remain for those reasons. It's more the fucking ridiculous Remain campaign and those leading it that I have an issue with.

If it's an issue with leaders you have may I introduce you to a well run Labour campaign sometime in 2092?

[GS]

Don't confuse me with Nigel Farage/GS, I may yet even bottle it and vote Remain for those reasons. It's more the fucking ridiculous Remain campaign and those leading it that I have an issue with.

Bottling it is what they're hoping most people do. The team I work for nationally relies on work from the EC, so my voting leave is basically an act of economic self-immolation. It's too important not to see it through, however.

[Lewis]

We're done if you vote to remain, mate.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'll vote leave in all probability. I don't really mind being in on the current terms, it's more the inevitability of how shit it's going to become later on when they integrate the fiscal policy, so we might as well get out now when we have the chance.

I have to proxy vote for my brother who is a fundamentalist Remainer for reasons which elude me, so I'll just vote for both and you won't be able to blame me when it all goes tits up.

[Shindig]

"And now for the Hillsborough should be on the national curriculum referendum. Tick in the box, please."

[Lewis]

I'll vote leave in all probability. I don't really mind being in on the current terms, it's more the inevitability of how shit it's going to become later on when they integrate the fiscal policy, so we might as well get out now when we have the chance.

I have to proxy vote for my brother who is a fundamentalist Remainer for reasons which elude me, so I'll just vote for both and you won't be able to blame me when it all goes tits up.

My Labour-voting nan used to be pretty set on wanting to stay in, but she postal voted to leave because she wasn't having Barack Hussein Obama ('foreigners') telling us what to do. :cool:

[phonics]

"And now for the Hillsborough should be on the national curriculum referendum. Tick in the box, please."
Education subjects are based on the exam board that is voted in by the teachers across the country. They're also the highest paid public servants (health care is privatised)

But even then you have to take into account the rather strange way Swiss education is laid out. You take a version of the eleven plus and depending on your results there you aren't allowed into higher education and are forced into apprentiships or you're allowed to take lit and humanities/languages or maths, science and engineering. So those sort of ideas can't take over.

[Lewis]

Tony Blair will just shite his way out of whatever watered-down criticism he gets, so the best hope is that Alastair Campbell gets bummed.

[Lewis]

I read an article on Stephen Crabb the other day touting him as a future Prime Minister, but I think he has a whiff of Andy Burnham about him. He looks a bit like him as well behind the beard.

1) Not posh
2) Not from Southern England
3) Do we really need more than that?
4) I think he likes sport

The first line of the article is 'The first lesson from the Budget is: do not underestimate George Osborne', so maybe it's a write-off now.

Was I first with this? :cool:

[Jimmy Floyd]

You can probably be PM with a beard, but not his beard.

[Shindig]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-36719932

Yeah, starting to think Jezza's a Jew basher.

[GS]

He has a record which is very difficult to overlook, regardless of his attempts to explain it away.

[GS]

The Tories are apparently starting to worry that Leadsom will go through today and the membership will vote her in against the wishes of the vast majority of MPs.

She looks more hopeless as time passes, regrettably.

[Lewis]

Yeah. She comes across as being a bit too nice (read: hopeless) for any of this. Michael Gove wouldn't have a chance of shifting those negative ratings he has either, which was always the worry with him, so it might be worth a stitch-up to stop the party falling to bits.

[GS]

I'd rather May sweep the board later, and whoever is left just drop out. The concern would be a lack of legitimacy if she doesn't win a membership ballot against a leaver, but then you could just point to polling which shows she's going to storm it anyway and it's better for stability that you just put her in now.

The fucking idea of Leadsom trying to negotiate with Putin. "But Mr Putin, I genuinely believe annexing Crimea was NOT fair!" Fucking hell.

May has Fox, Davis etc. on board, so just make sure you have a Brexit negotiating team and avoid the EEA option at all costs.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Govers is on an heroic suicide mission I reckon. Doubt he wants to win at all.

[GS]

Perhaps he doesn't, but Leadsom can't be Prime Minister for the next four years. Some of her supporters had a fucking march this morning, for fuck sake.

Gove and May need to go the country, although I've no doubt Gove is about to get knocked out.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If he manages to take out Boris and then Leadsom without ever having any real ambition to actually hold the top job himself, he should be knighted for services to disaster aversion.

If he'd swung in behind Boris, we'd now be looking at a Boris v May battle to the bitter end which would split the UK's only remaining competent political party in two.

[GS]

I suspect in ten years' time, we'll look back on Gove knifing Boris as a moment of supreme national service. He'll be sacked from the cabinet before 2020, irrespective of who wins here. Probably twice.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Having had a couple of days to view Leadsom in the public eye, she's absolutely terrible and very Ukippy. Doesn't even have the calibre to be a Cabinet minister, let alone PM.

[GS]

Indeed. Two weeks ago I'd have accepted her as leader solely on the grounds she campaigned for Brexit, but further public exposure and media scrutiny demonstrates she is clearly not up to it.

It's not the time to be gambling on someone who may - or probably will - prove to be absolutely shite. There's a nightmare scenario where it's Leadsom v Corbyn at PMQs in September, and if that's the case we should close the country down.

[Jimmy Floyd]

She's through. Damn it.

May 199
Leadsom 84
Gove 46

Theresa had better clean up.

[GS]

:sick:

[Jimmy Floyd]

My twitter is now full of lefties lolling at Gove. Are they terminally thick or do they just not follow the news?

[GS]

A fair number of them seem to blame Boris and Gove personally for the result, so they're engaging in gleeful schadenfreude. They'll come to regret it when they see what Leadsom is - and the risk of her becoming PM (for fuck sake) is real - but they'll never admit to it. They're all Tories anyway, and are thus evil.

[Pleb]

I'd rather lol at Gove and May being beaten by Leadsom to be honest.

Then again my interest in politics is like looking at wet wallpaper so I wouldn't know.

[Lee]

I never thought I'd say this but please can May win?

Leadsom as PM, with no opposition, genuinely frightens me. I think the members are going to vote for her as well. Jesus.

[GS]

YouGov have had very sound polling on leadership contests in the past, and they have May running away with it by 30+ points in a straight fight with Leadsom.

The latter is too easy to attack - lacks experience, dodgy CV, potential dodgy taxes, unimpressive pitches - and she's largely reliant on the 'Brexiter' tag, which you're on sound ground questioning given her Damascene conversion. The only way you'd vote for is if you're being contrarian. May has heavyweight Brexiter backing in Fox, Patel, Davis - it's a question of reassuring the membership that it won't be Brexit-lite and it will be leavers in charge of negotiating the deal.

I think we'll be fine, barring some massive collective WOBBLE over May supporting remain.

If Leadsom wins, and comes up against Corbyn's Labour, then just fuck off.

[Lee]

I don't think May is a particularly good candidate to be honest. But you take what you can get.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I never thought I'd say this but please can May win?

Leadsom as PM, with no opposition, genuinely frightens me. I think the members are going to vote for her as well. Jesus.

I think they will too, or if not it will be very close. These pillocks voted for IDS and who better to remember that than one of the pillars of the Leadsom campaign, IDS.

May is terrible but that's what modern politics is, a series of terrible people vying for important jobs and you go with the least terrible option.

[GS]

She has six years in one of the great offices of state - it's about as good as you're going to get. There seems to be some sort of collective breakdown going on in leftist circles about the Tories having a second female PM before Labour have managed to have one.

[Lee]

That means she hasn't been sacked, not that she's any good. Brown had a decade at the Treasury. I really don't rate her. Not PM material. Also, talking of our former PM, her smile has a touch of the Gordon Browns about it.

If Labour get themselves a decent centrist leader (they won't) then they deny the Tories a majority at the very least in 2020.

[Jimmy Floyd]

My guess is we'll have to have vote reform at some point because none of the parties will be strong enough anymore, which is because people have rejected political parties in general and they're all heading back into their core shells.

Either that or huge Tory majorities forever. Pass the cheese board.

[GS]

Can anyone prove themselves PM material beforehand? Cameron looked a smarmy bastard when he was elected leader in 2005, but it's ironic that he's going to leave the job when he's actually become very good at it. She's done well to last at the Home Office as long as she has, so presumably she's been doing something right. Jimmy's right though - it's the best of a bad lot.

[Jimmy Floyd]

She's done well to last at the Home Office as long as she has, so presumably she's been doing something right.

Failed to grow a penis.

[GS]

My guess is we'll have to have vote reform at some point because none of the parties will be strong enough anymore, which is because people have rejected political parties in general and they're all heading back into their core shells.

Either that or huge Tory majorities forever. Pass the cheese board.

I think the Tories with a strong 'pro-Britain' message could do well in the northern areas that voted Brexit, if they attack them and campaign there with a clear campaign message and any sense of conviction. There's real scope for proper realignment, if they don't BOTTLE it.

[GS]

Failed to grow a penis.

Or just not shit enough to justify being sacked. I'm sure we could have parachuted Priti "let's be clear about this" Patel in to beat up on immigrants in a conference speech.

[Lee]

Cameron looked a smarmy bastard when he left. He is a smarmy bastard. He always looked PM material though. I remember having the conversation with my old man at the time. Read any of the main books covering the New Labour period and you'll know how worried they got that Cameron was the one who'd do for them. Because he was them.

[GS]

Cameron benefited from going up against a genuine nutter in Brown and a complete waste of space in Miliband. He'd have been taken apart by Blair.

[Lee]

Cameron benefited from going up against a genuine nutter in Brown and a complete waste of space in Miliband. He'd have been taken apart by Blair.

I'm pretty sure polls consistently had the Tories ahead in Blair's final months. He was done.

The best chance Labour had was when Brown first took charge and looked like a super hero with his response to floods, foot and mouth disease and terrorist attacks. Then Osborne was Osborne and murdered him (on inheritance tax?) at the Tory Conference.

[GS]

Brown didn't recover from failing to call an election. He looked like a bottler, and it made it easy to attack him for having 'no legitimacy' because everybody knew he was always going to be handed the leadership. I remember at the time that there was a 'Brown bounce', and everybody thought he was great on the grounds that he wasn't Tony Blair.

Then the penny dropped that he was, in fact, a nutter. The GFC finished him.

[Lee]

I'm failing to foresee a situation in which we're not fucked if Leadsom wins. Either the economy tanks, the Toriescare blamed and we end up with some mental Corbyn/Eagle led coalition. Or it goes okay and Leadsom is PM.

I'm going to be a traitor and apply for an Irish passport anyway so I can retain my freedom of movement. I might have to upgrade that to emigration to some quiet coastal village on the south west of Ireland so I can just hide from it all.

[GS]

Leaving the EU clearly carries real short-term risk. There's a chance the whole thing could spiral if the political classes don't get a firm fucking grip on things, and I don't see how Leadsom can do this. That the executive have not made the necessary contingency planning for a leave vote is a genuinely appalling way to govern.

I was thinking of getting an Irish passport years ago, but by doing so I'm required to recognise that the Free State claims some jurisdiction over the north.

[Lee]

Leaving the EU clearly carries real short-term risk. There's a chance the whole thing could spiral if the political classes don't get a firm fucking grip on things, and I don't see how Leadsom can do this. That the executive have not made the necessary contingency planning for a leave vote is a genuinely appalling way to govern.

I was thinking of getting an Irish passport years ago, but by doing so I'm required to recognise that the Free State claims some jurisdiction over the north.

I don't think they give a fuck about your recognition, mate. Lie.

[Lewis]

May will be fine, and probably what people (and THE MARKETS) want at the moment. I've been on this for years as well. What a roll.

[Boydy]

I'm failing to foresee a situation in which we're not fucked if Leadsom wins. Either the economy tanks, the Toriescare blamed and we end up with some mental Corbyn/Eagle led coalition. Or it goes okay and Leadsom is PM.

I'm going to be a traitor and apply for an Irish passport anyway so I can retain my freedom of movement. I might have to upgrade that to emigration to some quiet coastal village on the south west of Ireland so I can just hide from it all.

Dingle is lovely.

Stop shitting yourselves though.

[John]

Just seen that Leadsom march. :D

And her introduction at that press conference thing. "I can't hear you! I said ARE YOU READY FOR ANDREA!?"

[GS]

Murdoch and Co were fully behind Michael Gove, because Murdoch loves journalists and especially journalists who used to work for him. Now that 'Gover' (fuck off) is out, the Sun are fully on board the Theresa May train:

751157849930272768

I suspect there will be a fairly concerted pro-May media campaign, because most sensible people can see what would happen if Leadsom won. Presumably the members, being significantly less paranoid and fragile than your average Labour member, will do what's best for the country. Hopefully.

[Boydy]

What's so bad about Leadsom? I don't really know much about her.

[GS]

It's difficult to know where to start:

- She appears to have 'exaggerated' her CV quite significantly, making grandiose claims about her role and job title which simply aren't correct;
- She has no experience at cabinet level, and has only been a relatively junior minister in a non-department since becoming an MP in 2010; and
- She's given some quite unimpressive speeches as part of her candidacy thus far in closed meetings to Tories (this appears not to have been a tactical leak by any rival campaign - she was just shit).

Her entire candidature hinges on her support of Brexit, but even there she said it would be a 'disaster' not three years ago. She also ran a blog (for fuck sake) for several years, which is now being dug through by every journalist going to find things to undermine her.

Until she was on the ITV debate, most people hadn't heard of her. The speed of the leadership contest means she's accelerated to the front on the basis of a) supporting Brexit and b) not being Michael Gove, and she thus hasn't had the necessary level of 'due diligence' undertaken on her record. That's happening now, and the more she's exposed to public scrutiny the more it's becoming clear that she's just not ready for Prime Minister. It would be a different issue if you were voting for a leader of the opposition, who could bat their way into the game for a few years, but you're asking someone with no experience and questionable personal credentials to lead the most complex set of negotiations this country has undertaken since decolonisation.

She's not up to it, in short. She also doesn't have the support of the vast majority of MPs, so if the membership elect her purely on the basis she campaigned for Brexit, the Tories are looking at a Corbyn-esque scenario with someone who a) is not supported by the parliamentary party and b) just isn't very good.

[phonics]

I think that newspaper that has photoshopped Theresa May's face on Thatchers body was created specifically to make me feel a bit ill.

Boydy will probably post it in the shameful lustage thread.

[Lee]

You're joking, GS? The Tory membership is mental. They elected Cameron because they got fed up of losing so went for Blair lite just to get back into power and then change at a later date. This is change time. May might just be horrific enough for them. But if not....

Choosing May is like choosing to eat shit with sugar on top. Theresa fucking May is the normal one in this. Jesus Christ.

[GS]

The membership are mental, but there's no entryism and presumably there's a certain degree of pragmatism ingrained in a membership which was willing to elect Cameron over Davis - the latter of whom probably shared the politics of most members.

This is where we are, unfortunately. It's May or anarchy.

[Boydy]

i think that newspaper that has photoshopped theresa may's face on thatchers body was created specifically to make me feel a bit ill.

Boydy will probably post it in the shameful lustage thread.

AT LEAST I USED THE THREAD PROPERLY.

Caps, damnit.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What's so bad about Leadsom? I don't really know much about her.

I thought this a few days ago, then I started finding stuff out about her.

There's a devastating column about her in Private Eye this week.

[GS]

It's not just Private Eye. The media as a whole are going for her.

[Chinny Hill]

OK, periodically we'll be exposing the hypocrisy of various political parties who slag off UKIP for a wide variety of things.
What would you think if UKIP offered a discount on membership, but only if you were British born? Uproar right...

OK let's see our friends The Greens, and their totally non-discriminatory membership offer.

https://my.greenparty.org.uk/civicrm/contribute/transact?reset=1&id=63

[SvN]

We have a politics thread, put this stuff in there.

Edit: Merged

[phonics]

They were already offering International Membership, they've just made it cheaper for advertising purposes and it seems to have worked as nutters are spreading it to places like these.

[GS]

751520393773604864
Lewis - you'll like this. Crabb for PM indeed.

[GS]

:face:

I'm face palming, but really this sort of story is great as it exposes Leadsom as the chancer she is. Just drop out and let May win, you fucking chancer.

751520931818930176

[John]

That Chinny post is great. Fighting hypocrisy by imagining a response to a hypothetical situation.

[Shindig]

I'd almost want her to win so I can start the "As a mother..." drinking game.

[GS]

Add 'genuine' into your drinking game. She begins a lot of her sentences with "genuinely", which suggests that a lot of what she says isn't genuine.

She's a fucking nutter. It wasn't even a leading question, apparently - she fucking offered it off her own bat. The fucking mentalist.

[Lewis]

It's the religious weirdos you need to watch. 'Set your watch', as Christopher Hitchens used to say.

Not you, GS, mate. Obviously.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Theresa will win, the Tory party membership is the backbone of England, it always gets it right.

The ultra-vile Arron Banks is clearly ploughing his moolah into Leadsom, he needs stopping.

[GS]

It's the religious weirdos you need to watch. 'Set your watch', as Christopher Hitchens used to say.

Not you, GS, mate. Obviously.

I'm not a nutter, thankfully.

[Shindig]

Give it a few years.

[Boydy]

I'm not a nutter, thankfully.

:lol:

[GS]

You don't see me standing around with a placard or marching*, do you?

* Absent an orange sash and hearty renditions of pro-Union songs.

[GS]

Theresa will win, the Tory party membership is the backbone of England, it always gets it right.

The ultra-vile Arron Banks is clearly ploughing his moolah into Leadsom, he needs stopping.

It's alright - the Twitter outrage crowd have moved into fifth gear over this, so we'll presumably be fine.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If we lived in a reasonable world she'd be pulling out of the race tomorrow morning, but I'm not sure we do. You can't possibly have someone as Prime Minister who displays that sort of judgement at the, well, not even the first hurdle. The 0th hurdle.

[GS]

I would agree, actually. The question isn't about Theresa May, but the answer is. Either it's callous, or it's stupid. Neither is on, really. She's accused the Times of fabricating the quote, they've produced the transcript. It's dishonest as well as stupid, so I think there would be genuine grounds for her pulling out of the race on account of this. Not that she will, but the Tory MPs who voted for her because they were squeamish about Gove's knifing of Boris need to take a long, hard fucking look at themselves.

Neat summary of it, for anyone who cares:

751554930075398146

[Lewis]

Bless 'er. Her lovely nan act did its job during the referendum, softening Boris Johnson and Margot Honecker, but she is well out of her depth and ought not to have been encouraged.

[GS]

That's evident, but there are clear questions which the Tory MPs who voted for her need to answer. How in the fuck did they allow her to get on the ballot? There's a danger this woman might become Prime Minister at a supreme moment of national crisis.

It would ruin the moral grandstanding the Tories have over Labour, for a start. Nobody wants that, least of all Labour.

[Shindig]

I just liked the idea of her going up to Merkel with pictures of her kids.

"Those are my national interests, Angela."

[Lewis]

Twitter is going a bit overboard about all of this. Is it that much different from female politicians generally claiming that being women gives them some sort of compassionate and temperamental advantage in running things?

[phonics]

This Leadsom stuff is some proper post-facts political world nonsense and going by the replies to that tweet they're buying it as well.

[phonics]

I work in HIV where MSM means 'Men who have sex with men' which is very confusing when reading tweets like

751680902481272832

[Boydy]

I work in HIV

You what?

[Kikó]

It was meant to say with.

[phonics]

You what?

I work for the International AIDS Foundation.

[Lewis]

As a model?

[Shindig]

As a mother.

[Magic]

Didn't have phonics down as a bug chaser

[GS]

Twitter is going a bit overboard about all of this. Is it that much different from female politicians generally claiming that being women gives them some sort of compassionate and temperamental advantage in running things?

It's a bit callous when Theresa May and her husband couldn't have kids, rather than not having them because they chose not to.

[GS]

752046198534598656

Get stuck in, Peston, mate. It must be difficult to be enthused about Angela Eagle if you're a Labour supporter.

[GS]

So it looks like Jez We Can is going to be denied an automatic spot on the ballot paper when Eagle launches her leadership challenge - here (http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/jeremy-corbyn-set-be-kept-labour-leadership-ballot-without-nominations)

It means he'll need to get the necessary number of nominations, and the unions are SEETHING at the idea that he might be deprived of that spot by MPs/MEPs. Jez was on Marr this morning and basically said, on live television, that he'd take his own party to court if they ruled against him. What scenes.

In other news, post-factual politics continues with Leadsom ally IDS attempting to dismiss reporting what the woman actually said as 'smear'. Alright, mate. The May lot are making quite a forceful case for her on Brexit, which seems sensible. It's the only trump card that Leadsom has, so if May's supporters (led by key Brexit campaigners) can convincingly argue that she'll follow through and is best placed to get a deal, then Leadsom is finished and we can all sleep easily at night.

[Lee]

Corbyn not getting on the ballot would be fantastic for Labour. It eliminates the need for a 'unity' candidate and means a centrist with the ability to beat Eagle can challenge.

[GS]

It's exactly what they need, but you're still going to have the issue of the unions wanting to go back to 1946 and a membership who should be in the SWP.

I'd start by changing the system for electing the leader (adopt the Tory system completely with MPs choosing the final two and a three month period before you're eligible to vote) and stopping this 'associate member' shite. You'd probably need to find some way of clearing out the entryism, so perhaps one-off fees or something to flush out people who aren't committed might be the way forward. You can just start a concerted attempt to lol Momentum out of the public eye.

[Lewis]

Doesn't that make it a coup rather than a challenge? Also, if they can just ignore the membership like that, why not find somebody less shite than Angela Eagle?

[GS]

It'll be no different to the one the [hard] left have done to 'install' Corbyn. The Corbyn lot didn't do anything wrong, as such, they just exploited the rules to suit their own agenda. The Labour 'moderates', as such as they are, would simply be doing the same.

I presume they'll have an open contest if they're sure Jez won't be on the ballot paper - I've always assumed Eagle would be the challenger in the event it was Corbyn v a non-mental. They might also stick her in charge for a year until they've sorted the entryism etc. out, then have an open contest. Fuck knows. I think getting rid of Agent Jez and his gang of nutters has to be the primary concern before the party splits, because presumably McDonnell et al would be taking the party name, the party apparatus and the union affiliations etc. with them in the event of said split.

If Jez is denied a spot on the ballot, and his lot and Momentum go MENTAL, then you can just tell they're welcome to split off and start their own party, then trounce them when they're standing under some SWP banner at the next election.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Momentum crew will break away if the PLP launch that particular coup.

[Yevrah]

What technically needs to happen (or has already happened) for a leadership election to take place?

Can any old Labour MP just call one?

[Jimmy Floyd]

If they get a certain % of MPs nominating them, it triggers a leadership election.

There's the additional problem for Corbyn that if he doesn't get that % of MPs himself, he wouldn't necessarily be on the ballot.

[Yevrah]

I'm no fan of Jezza, but what a retarded fucking system.

[Jimmy Floyd]

As retarded as he is, the PLP would do well to remember that the party membership clearly wants a left candidate, and if they don't allow them to have one it's basically a coup.

[Boydy]

Imagine wrecking your own party with a leadership coup and the best candidate you can come up with is Angela fucking Eagle. Jesus wept.

[GS]

Wrecking their own party is a bit of a stretch, given the entryism that happened last year has basically ruined Labour as a viable political force. Neither side comes out of this well. They deserve each other.

[Yevrah]

Angela Eagle though. You couldn't make it up.

[GS]

I agree - she's appalling. Brillo took her apart on Sunday Politics earlier.

As I said up above though, I've always assumed she was the non-controversial 'unity' candidate to put up against Corbyn in a straight one v one. They'll probably have to run with her just to get rid of him.

If they can block him from the ballot, then you can get someone not shit involved.

[Boydy]

You can't run a 'unity' candidate against Corbyn. There's no such thing.

[Yevrah]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgClG2MU0W4

My God.

[Boydy]

That voice. :sick:

[GS]

You can't run a 'unity' candidate against Corbyn. There's no such thing.

I'll rephrase - a candidate who unites the moderates and the waverers amongst the Corbynista mob to the point they might edge out Wor Jez. You couldn't put up Hilary Benn, for example, because the communists wouldn't have it - he undermined Jeremy, after all. Eagle may be hopeless, but she's evidently 'on the left' and not malicious about knifing him as others may be portrayed.

I don't understand what the Corbyn / Momentum lot want from all of this. I really don't. This is the chair of Momentum:

752078612766027777

They're genuinely not interested in winning. What in the fuck are they doing?

[Lewis]

There has to be a point where 'winning' is useless if it means having to sell the movement out.

[GS]

It's a choice between being able to implement some of your agenda or none of it. If you're in perpetual opposition (or, indeed, a smaller party of protest) then you're just wasting your time. The entire war cry of the left is "STOP THE TORIES!". There's no more effective way of stopping the Tories than being in government yourself.

The last time Labour faced a prolonged period of opposition, they went for Wor Tony. He binned Clause IV, which had grizzled socialist types quietly seething, but there was a recognition that old Labour wasn't electable.

Blair sold the movement out, but by doing so he was able to implement various lefty favourites like the minimum wage and bullying the rich through the hunting ban. Protest is fine - but they shouldn't be doing it by 'infiltrating' an existing party and hijacking it. They're more than welcome to set up a party where it states in its constitution that its primary purpose is to maintain ideological purity over pragmatic compromise to obtain power.

[Shindig]

Imagine Leadsom shouting Eagle down to tears.

[Lewis]

Times have changed, and whatever was relevant from 1997 to 2010 (other than universal truths like normal beats weird) is in the bin. They can't just elect another London Wanker and take their supposed heartlands for granted. Especially if the Brexit process a) goes to shit and gives UKIP a massive boost or; b) becomes a Conservative policy because Labour are ambiguous about it. Right now they are stuck between Jezza, who, if properly reinforced with a normal cabinet of 'big names', would consolidate their base and, at the very least, do no worse than Ed Miliband (Jockland might be back up for grabs as well if another referendum gets donned); and putting some prat in charge who will risk losing half of it to UKIP without gaining any ground in the South expect in the London dickhead seats.

Theresa May will fucking annihilate Angela Eagle. She makes Miliband look like Ronald Reagan.

[GS]

The Labour heartlands want to hear that immigration is going to stop, deportations will be starting tomorrow and we'll be redirecting foreign aid into 'domestic priorities'.

They don't give a shit about Jez's internal wrangling over Trident or his concern for a 'social Europe'. They've done their own polling which shows they're going to lose millions of voters if he stays. What's the point of heading towards inevitable electoral oblivion where your capacity to implement your agenda (which you presumably believe to be a significantly better way of doing things than the Tories) is basically zero?

[Jimmy Floyd]

What you have to remember is that in left wing politics, anywhere in the world really, it's always about one faction being purer than another faction. Never about anything more than internal politics and process-based scrapping. Even the Soviet Union was basically that writ large.

[GS]

Exactly. Corbyn and his crowd are evidently more interested in winning the internal battle for the party. It's pointless dick waving, whilst the people they claim to want to help are suffering under AUSTERITY and TORY CUTS.

Get a grip, lads.

[Lewis]

The 'internal wrangling' and general sense of the party being a shambles is the result of everybody spitting their dummies out. They could have divisions over Trident and whatever else (Europe is pointless; we're out) without having to have everybody turn it into a full-blown MELTDOWN in aid of wanting to overturn the will of the membership, which they have been doing from the off in refusing to serve in his Shadow Cabinet.

[GS]

The 'internal wrangling' and general sense of the party being a shambles is the result of everybody spitting their dummies out. They could have divisions over Trident and whatever else (Europe is pointless; we're out) without having to have everybody turn it into a full-blown MELTDOWN in aid of wanting to overturn the will of the membership, which they have been doing from the off in refusing to serve in his Shadow Cabinet.

It's a constituency of embittered metropolitan socialist types (alright, Boyd) which the left of the party deliberately whipped up to take advantage of the utterly fucking stupid rules implemented by Ed Miliband. It's not a genuine membership, if you will - many of these people should be in the SWP or the Communist party. They simply recognise that they have no prospect of having a national platform absent the Labour 'brand', and are thus prepared to hijack it for their own ends. The fucking state of this Momentum crowd.

The will of the 'membership' is irrelevant in this context, frankly. If you can say 'fair enough' to entryism on the grounds that it was within the rules, it's equally fair to say 'fuck off lad, you need nominations' to Corbyn. The rules can't be exploited by one side only for them to cry foul later on.

[Boydy]

The Blairites signed up for careers and now their team isn't in charge their careers are being stunted so they've spat the dummy out. Fuck off to the City, you cry-baby pricks.

[Jimmy Floyd]

On the opposite side, there are loads of parliamentarians who will only be in Labour as entryists. Alistair Darling is basically a Tory, but you don't have a political career from Scotland as a Conservative.

Similarly, at least one of the Tory councillors local to me is pretty violently left wing on every issue, but you don't get ahead around here by joining Labour.

[Boydy]

Maybe I should join the DUP and commie them up.

[Lewis]

752048663409651712

:cool:

[GS]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgClG2MU0W4

My God.

I've just had a chance to watch this properly, and "My God" is a generous way of putting it. Imagine her representing the country internationally. Fucking hell.

[Lee]

She won't be so don't worry.

[GS]

I'm catching up on the Sunday Politics, and Tim Farron is absolutely shit too. He just can't accept the referendum result in the slightest.

The political class is a sorry fucking state.

[Lee]

I'm catching up on the Sunday Politics, and Tim Farron is absolutely shit too. He just can't accept the referendum result in the slightest.

The political class is a sorry fucking state.

To be fair there is nothing wrong with having a party as a pro-EU voice. In fact it would be pretty shit if the option wasn't on the ballot paper in general elections. It's a perfectly legitimate stance to take, is common across the continent, and probably had enough support nationally to merit parliamentary representation.

It's also reasonable to campaign on the basis the referendum outcomes have a lifespan; Eurosceptics have been doing so since the 1970s. If people don't agree with it as a policy they don't have to vote for any party with that on the slate.

I accept the referendum result but still think the electorate has made an appalling choice. Why should I not have a party to vote for on that basis and why should I not want that result reversed in the future, however distant that point might be, so long as the means are democratic?

[GS]

I don't disagree with the party taking a position on it at all, but he was going on about the need for further referenda as the deal progresses ("people didn't know what they were voting for") and basically pinning his hopes on the idea of a second referendum on leaving when "people realise what it means".

There's no problem with being pro-EU, but I think one must at least have the sense to accept that such a position can't be underpinned by 'death of a thousand cuts' to the current Brexit process.

[Lee]

I agree with that. I do think there is a good argument for whatever negotiated deal we come away with to go to a vote either in a further referendum or a GE though.

Leaving shouldn't be too timetabled and nobody outside of the UK can force it. We need to we get the best deal possible, however long it takes. If that means the public rejecting a proposed deal in the interim then so be it.

However if it's a referendum there should be no explicit remain option. Clearly that can't be mandated in a general election situation.

[Lewis]

If they become the pro-European party to the extent that it dominates their agenda it will pretty much box them into their 2015 results forever. They might win Oxford or wherever back, but they will be dead in the non-ponce cities (where they used to do well locally) and about as welcome in rural areas as a paedophile convention.

[Yevrah]

I've just had a chance to watch this properly, and "My God" is a generous way of putting it. Imagine her representing the country internationally. Fucking hell.

It just shows how crap people in politics are these days that someone who looks like they're constantly on the verge of tears is seemingly the only one with enough balls to try and oust a useless incumbent.

I was too young at the time to really tell, but was Kinnock that useless?

[Jimmy Floyd]

It was down to Kinnock that they managed to purge the left idiots last time around (and by god do they cling on), although he was never PM material.

[GS]

I agree with that. I do think there is a good argument for whatever negotiated deal we come away with to go to a vote either in a further referendum or a GE though.

Leaving shouldn't be too timetabled and nobody outside of the UK can force it. We need to we get the best deal possible, however long it takes. If that means the public rejecting a proposed deal in the interim then so be it.

However if it's a referendum there should be no explicit remain option. Clearly that can't be mandated in a general election situation.

The question I have is what happens if the deal that is negotiated over the course of the two years of Article 50 is put to the electorate and they reject it? You can't exactly start again with the EU and say "here, lads, this won't work for us".

For purely practical purposes, I think the only thing you can do is put it through parliament. Then again, I suppose I wouldn't want any deal which involves acceptance of any EU laws or rules whatsoever, and there will be people who voted Leave who would consider free movement a clear red line.


If they become the pro-European party to the extent that it dominates their agenda it will pretty much box them into their 2015 results forever. They might win Oxford or wherever back, but they will be dead in the non-ponce cities (where they used to do well locally) and about as welcome in rural areas as a paedophile convention.

I would agree. There's no real prospect of it being an election winner outside university cities and the youth demographic, neither of which can be relied on to turn up. There's probably a space in the post-referendum realignment for a pro-Europe party, but not a pro-EU party. I suspect we'll all find things aren't so bad that rejoining is, in any way, a serious option.

They might get some votes in your 'metropolitan liberal elite' demographic, but they'll be vying with New New Labour for the 'sushi, mate' vote.

They also have a problem with Tim Farron. The Liberals have tended to have someone with some sort of national stature, but he's just a backbench MP who has been over-promoted on the grounds that there was literally almost nobody else. Without a heavyweight, it's difficult to take them particularly seriously.


It was down to Kinnock that they managed to purge the left idiots last time around (and by god do they cling on), although he was never PM material.

His speech to the PLP (there's a dodgy recording of it knocking about) was genuinely excellent.

[Jimmy Floyd]

What I do like about this referendum result is that the 'banging on about Europe' will now be conducted entirely by the other side, whilst the likes of Bill Cash will probably start saying 'no one cares about Europe'.

[GS]

What I do like about this referendum result is that the 'banging on about Europe' will now be conducted entirely by the other side, whilst the likes of Bill Cash will probably start saying 'no one cares about Europe'.

I suspect there's a section of society who are never going to accept this has happened.

It'll be defence to the last trench with added snark.

[phonics]

To show you where we're at with politics these days, Theresa Mays campaign tagline is from an Ed Miliband speech at the party conference in 2013.

And just because this isn't ever not funny

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnBMIYSWEAE2F7Y.jpg:large

[Jimmy Floyd]

Guido reckons Leadsom is about to quit.

[GS]

Thank Christ for that.

Well done to the Tory MPs who voted for her over Gove though. That was worthwhile.

[phonics]

Thank Christ for that.

Well done to the Tory MPs who voted for her over Gove though. That was worthwhile.

Not really. This puts Gove back on the ticket.

[GS]

The best part about this is that Angela Eagle's event has been completely overshadowed. Apparently there was an exodus of journalists from her event when the news of Leadsom's impending announcement.

There's some discussion over whether the 1922 Committee are obliged to find a second candidate to put to the membership, or whether May just automatically becomes party leader. Cameron could be gone by the end of the day, or he could be here until 9 September anyway. There's a suggestion that if the 1922 Committee need another candidate, they'd have to put forward Gove - but the question is whether he'd really want to or not.

It's probably best we all get behind Prime Minister May now.

[GS]

Not really. This puts Gove back on the ticket.

The question is whether he would accept a place on the ticket in those circumstances.

Gove has four years at education, one year at justice and one year as Chief Whip. He clearly has a range of experience across cabinet, and he had a pivotal role in the Leave campaign. One can at least make a strong argument to say that he could do the job. Leadsom evidently couldn't, and her candidature was embarrassing.

The issue I have with the Tory MPs is that it was evident throughout that Leadsom wasn't up to it, but they still put her forward anyway solely on the back of her supporting Brexit rather than because she could do the job. She'd have been Corbyn for Conservatives, and we've avoided a massive issue here, thankfully.

[Lewis]

Good day to find out Theresa May is a communist as well.

[GS]

I think it's quite clever from May, actually. I reckon there's a real chance she'll call a general election and go after the northern Brexit vote massively. Tory landslide. :cool:

[Alan Shearer The 2nd]

Has she made any comments regarding calling an election? Leadsom said she wouldn't.

[GS]

May said she wouldn't as well, but this would change things. Get a Trident vote out of the way, and capitalise whilst Labour don't even have a fucking leader and UKIP are in leadership limbo too. They can then attack the northern UKIP vote strongly on a 'we can deliver Brexit' pledge.

Leadsom is literally reading a letter out - she can't actually be trusted to speak without it. Fucking hell, what a state.

[Lewis]

Where did I read the other day that Dave was looking to spin his exit out so he could go to one last international summit? Get him out this afternoon.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've thought ever since Friday 24th that there has to be a new general election if not this year, then early next.

Handbag in Downing Street by tonight, please.

[phonics]

If no-one challenges May then I don't see how you can't not have one.

[Lee]

Not really. This puts Gove back on the ticket.

Does it? Would May not just become PM? Gove still lost.

[GS]

Where did I read the other day that Dave was looking to spin his exit out so he could go to one last international summit? Get him out this afternoon.

I've read that too - he wants to have a 'farewell' conference with Barry Obama, because that's his last conference too.

I agree, mind - get him the fuck out immediately and let's crack on.

Fairly magnanimous statement from Leadsom, actually. She's clearly bottled it because of the ABUSE, but it's still a sound reason to pull out when you've only got about a quarter of the MPs.

[GS]

If no-one challenges May then I don't see how you can't not have one.

A Tory leadership election is not a substitute for a general election.

They have a further four years of their mandate. I don't see a strong argument for a general election now.

[phonics]

Does it? Would May not just become PM? Gove still lost.

Nah party rules state that there still has to be a leadership contest.

[Byron]

A Tory leadership election is not a substitute for a general election.

They have a further four years of their mandate. I don't see a strong argument for a general election now.

It just means the party is opened up to the same vitriol Labour got because BROWN WAS UNELECTED.

If the Tories can live with that, then I agree they still have their mandate.

[phonics]

A Tory leadership election is not a substitute for a general election.

They have a further four years of their mandate. I don't see a strong argument for a general election now.

They have no mandate though. The government that was voted in was for remain, and breaking even by 2020 that bloke and his mandate has now been pushed off a roof.

You can't have 300 people choose who runs the country for 4 years in a country of 60,000,000. I can't believe Mr. EU IS STEALING MY DEMOCRACY is the one arguing this.

[GS]

They have no mandate though. The government that was voted in was for remain, and breaking even by 2020 that bloke and his mandate has now been pushed off a roof.

You can't have 300 people choose who runs the country for 4 years in a country of 60,000,000. I can't believe Mr. EU IS STEALING MY DEMOCRACY is the one arguing this.

It's parliamentary democracy - the Tories won a mandate for five years. You vote for a party, not a person. This isn't a presidential system.

They didn't have a load of asterisks through their manifesto saying *on condition we vote Remain.

We crack on now. Sterling has rocketed on the removal of uncertainty here - the last thing we need is another election now. Stability is required.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Constitutionally there is no need for an election, but in practice she will have to call one. She'd win it handsomely, too.

Angela's Ashes is starting her leadership bid now as well.

[GS]

I reckon she'll prove to be quite popular with the electorate.

[phonics]

I reckon she'll prove to be quite popular with the electorate.

Hahahahaha

[GS]

Good to see you've learnt how to engage in sensible grown-up debate.

[Jimmy Floyd]

You're right. Lib Dem landslide. Tim Farron rides into Downing Street on a huge yellow dildo.

[Byron]

Gove has confirmed he wouldn't want to replace Leadsom. The 1922 committee have organised an urgent meeting, presumably to make sure they can confirm May as the new leader asap.

[phonics]

Good to see you've learnt how to engage in sensible grown-up debate.

1) She's not popular with most that have been paying attention to her job
2) Police hate her

and the most important of them all

3) She's a woman

Much like the US it'd be a battle of the negative favorabilities

[Byron]

You know, when people talk about the patronising smugness of the left wing, they're talking about people like you Phonics.

[phonics]

You know, when people talk about the patronising smugness of the left wing, they're talking about people like you Phonics.

You don't think that there's a massive issue around women in the public eye?

Have you seen this new Ghostbusters stuff? It's gross.

[GS]

May's cabinet will certainly be interesting - I'd assume you need a Brexit foreign secretary, at the very least. I wouldn't be surprised to see Liam Fox get it.

How she handles Gove and Boris will also be interesting.

[GS]

You know, when people talk about the patronising smugness of the left wing, they're talking about people like you Phonics.

It's best not to engage.

[Byron]

You don't think that there's a massive issue around women in the public eye?

Have you seen this new Ghostbusters stuff? It's gross.

I was more referring to your 'if you knew anything you'd know May isn't well liked' in your first point.

Yeah the police and fire fighters probably aren't fans but she'll get a lot of support from people that idolize Thatcher and Labour supporters that feel Labour isn't the party of the working class anymore.

[Yevrah]

The "she's a woman" comment is just bizarre.

[phonics]

I was more referring to your 'if you knew anything you'd know May isn't well liked' in your first point.

Yeah the police and fire fighters probably aren't fans but she'll get a lot of support from people that idolize Thatcher and Labour supporters that feel Labour isn't the party of the working class anymore.

That's not personal popularity though, that's political viability.

Some UKIPer has been cleared of something which I don't care about but this picture came up in my feed.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/dcc2542cf517f349be41f8869df565120f57ed6c/0_92_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg

Christ.

[GS]

The "she's a woman" comment is just bizarre.

Arlene Foster is very popular amongst the unionist community here, whilst Sturgeon seems to do quite well in Scotland. Leanne Wood is leader of Plaid Cymru, and Thatcher won three elections in a row.

But women, you know. There's a problem there.

[phonics]

The "she's a woman" comment is just bizarre.

How so?

[Lee]

I think May would be electoral suicide if Labour weren't in such shit. They desperately need Corbyn not to be on the ballot.

[phonics]

I think Mat would be electoral suicide if Labour weren't in such shit. They desperately need Corbyn not to be on the ballot.

Matt's probably the only one I'd want running the country at this point.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/06/29/3006-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu 2jJnT8.png

[Jimmy Floyd]

An early election would be a total wipeout in favour of May's Tories. She'd have an early incumbent honeymoon boost, and Labour would have a total shambles dip.

The later it is, the more chance of her honeymoon wearing off and/or Labour getting their act together.

[Magic]

Does she have a mandate to govern?

[Lee]

An early election would be a total wipeout in favour of May's Tories. She'd have an early incumbent honeymoon boost, and Labour would have a total shambles dip.

The later it is, the more chance of her honeymoon wearing off and/or Labour getting their act together.

If she goes in the autumn, with Labour as they are, you're looking at a huge Tory majority, without doubt.

[GS]

UKIP are also in transition, which would make it difficult for them to eat into the Labour seats in the north. However, if the Tories went in with a clear "Brexit means Brexit" manifesto, with commitments on ending free movement and a "look at the state of Labour, lads" campaign policy, they could do much better than they've done for decades in the north. One assumes they'll continue to sweep their heartlands. The Lib Dems being pro-EU will shaft them everywhere they wouldn't be competitive anyway, I expect.

Scotland would be interesting to see. I assume the SNP would win all 59 seats.

[GS]

752476074550976512

Outstanding.

[Lee]

Was it Peter Mannion or Nicola Murray giving a speech in The Thick of It when the PM announced he was going and all the journalists fucked off? I like to think that's where Leadsom found her inspiration.

The latest ICM poll has it CON 38 LAB 30. Polls almost always overestimate the Labour vote, or at least the gap between the two parties in Labour's favour. Thats before an election campaign begins (and so Corbyn/Eagle are exposed to the electorate at large) and with more Labour infighting to come.

May would have to be mental not to call an election. It would guarantee ten more years of Tory government. If she leaves it, we go into recession and Labour elect a good leader she could end up guaranteeing ten years of Labour government from 2020.

[GS]

It's Peter Mannion, I believe. That poll should frighten the life out of Labour. If they can't get above 30% in the current climate, what's even the point? Leadsom has done the Tories a huge favour as well, because it makes the Tories look united in the national interest over Labour's continued internal wrangling and attempts to purge itself of ideological impurity.

The left calling for an election is basically inviting self-destruction at this stage. I don't understand it at all. I assume they're calling for an election with the assumption there won't be one. The irony of the Lib Dems demanding one - the party responsible for the FTPA - is a laugh too.

The timetable is apparently for Cameron to do PMQs on Wednesday, with May to take over the leadership that evening or the following day. The Queen is on her way back to London too. Could May call one on Thursday or would that be premature?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Given the brutality with which the Tories have just dealt with their idiot fringe (especially compared to Labour), I think we could be looking at fifteen or twenty.

[GS]

Given the brutality with which the Tories have just dealt with their idiot fringe (especially compared to Labour), I think we could be looking at fifteen or twenty.

It's quite spectacular, really. All piss-taking aside, it does reenforce the narrative that the Tories are a 'natural party of government'.

[Magic]

It's strange most of the 'best' things that the Tory party could have done that were mentioned on here by different members since BREXIT they've almost followed it to the letter.

[Lee]

The Tories like winning. No matter what else, they know how to win elections.

[Magic]

It's all a bit House of Cards-ish. Would be absolutely incredible behind the scenes.