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Thread: [FUTBOL] Weekend Fixtures ft. Arsenal v Man Utd & FA Cup 2nd Round (1st-4th December)

  1. #101
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    I saw in the Liverpool -Brighton game our expected goals was only 1.92 as well and Brightons was 1.7 or something. Seriously who comes up with this shit?

  2. #102
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Wallopers whose wage depends on complicating a very simple game.

  3. #103
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Arsenal 4.6 – Manchester United 1.9 was the xG.

    lol.

  4. #104
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    It basically measures how well you're finishing over a period of time. Not without its interest/uses, but xG advocates seem to think it's the holy grail.

  5. #105
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Fullmatchesandshows

  6. #106
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    How is this xG shit worked out?

  7. #107
    Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuno Reg's Avatar
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

    It's better than shots and shots on target. Worth a glance. It's not perfect, but then I'm not sure why anyone would expect it to be.

  8. #108
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    I think Dave Gayer is too good to get excited about now. The double save was brilliant (even if the follow-up owed a debt to wank finishing), but the best 'keeper in the world - which he is by a huge distance - should easily be keeping that Lukaku slice out, so you're just like yeah alright mate why not start taking free-kicks?

  9. #109
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    Arsenal 4.6 – Manchester United 1.9 was the xG.

    lol.
    What's lol about that? It describes what happened far better than the actual scoreline.

    I think the name "expected goals" is a bit shit and doesn't do it any favours. It's predictive over long term and a better metric than plain shots, but plastering xG numbers on the screen at the end of each game and not commenting on them is exactly not the way to do it.

    Decent read: https://2plus2equals11.com/2015/12/1...d-goal-totals/

    The fact that I use it on a daily basis for betting purposes is why I like it though, I can see why everyone else might think it was a load of wank. The more people that think it's a load of wank, the better.

  10. #110
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Nice to know you bet like a hipster as well.

  11. #111
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    It would have been hipster (and very clever) to bet like this if it were 2009.

  12. #112
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Surely the market worked in xG ages ago and now the hidden value is in underestimating people with ponytails and two inch knobs.

  13. #113
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    To an extent, yes, though I think everyone's model differs a bit depending on what they think is predictive.

    It all comes down to interpretation really. It's always going to be useful data, but it always need a "narrative".

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    Fullmatchesandshows
    Another option

    https://www.reddit.com/r/footballhighlights/

  15. #115
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Felt a bit for Hugton/Brighton yesterday. They'd obviously seen something they thought they could exploit in the way Liverpool (normally) play, changed their formation, and then Liverpool turned up with some batshit set-up with 9 midfielders.

    Still not quite sure what that penalty was for.

    Bob F repaying the faith, did you stick with him Jimmy?

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    Surely the market worked in xG ages ago and now the hidden value is in underestimating people with ponytails and two inch knobs.
    The big boys yes, but there's plenty of time to use an accurate xg model to make money before they place their bets and correct the market.

  17. #117
    Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuno Reg's Avatar
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    @niko_cee I couldn't tell what it was for live and now having seen it on MOTD it's maybe the softest "push" I've ever seen given. I do find it funny though that Klopp complains about a decision even when his team's won 5-1.

  18. #118
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Yeah, best time for a bad one to go against you and the sort of 'it all evens itself out' mantra that it never really does (the price for that one being presumably not having Ming sent off the other night) . Although, in the context of the match, and Liverpool's record when 3 ahead, perhaps it wasn't totally irrelevant.

  19. #119
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Liverpool’s starting eleven yesterday was amazing.
    I'm a twit

  20. #120
    More successful than most Magic's Avatar
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    Decent result against in form Villa. Would have taken a point before the game but we were so good in the 1st it ended up being disappointing.

  21. #121
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Are Sky really suggesting Redmond is dropped today because 'Pep' shouted at him?

  22. #122
    Senior Member Max Power's Avatar
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    Benevento, lost their first 10 games of the season, GD -28. Just equalised in the 95th minute against AC Milan with a lovely diving header from the keeper. Amazing scenes.

  23. #123
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    That was amazing.

    https://streamable.com/c37d1

  24. #124
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    Scenes.

  25. #125
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Love that.

  26. #126
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Willie Collum has just screamed 'I am the referee' in Josh Windass' face.

  27. #127
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Classy stuff from the Aberdeen fans, offering up a rendition of their favourite little ditty about the Ibrox Disaster. Imagine the outcry if a fanbase was in the habit of singing a song about Hillsbrough any time they played Liverpool. It's laughable that they never get even the tiniest bit of opprobrium for that song.

  28. #128
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Especially when it's the rangers, who's fans would never sing anything like that. Saints one and all.

  29. #129
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Jon Moss is absolutely dreadful.

  30. #130
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    We've had some questionable songs in the past and we've been hammered for them every time. My point is that while every other club gets hell any time they sing an even vaguely filthy song Aberdeen fans mock the deaths of sixty six fans on a regular basis and it's brushed off as banter.

    Maybe people just don't notice because they sing it to the same tune as their number about Ian Durrant getting his knee kicked off.

  31. #131
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Stop greetin’.

  32. #132
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    That nobody cares is probably more a reflection on Liverpool than everybody else. If Rangers want the same standards, then they should milk the disaster[s] to a much greater extent than they currently do.

  33. #133
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Is there a newspaper they could ban?

  34. #134
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I’ve never even heard of the Ibrox Disaster.
    I'm a twit

  35. #135
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    That's brilliant.

  36. #136
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    Is there a newspaper they could ban?
    They banned the BBC. No idea if stilk the case.

  37. #137
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    They banned the BBC. No idea if stilk the case.
    A complete lie. We banned one reporter because he was consistently talking utter bullshit about us and the BBC boycotted us in response.

  38. #138
    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    I think Moyes will have the tactical edge today over city. Away win.

  39. #139
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    Do Rangers and Celtic fans both have a persecution complex then? My mate in work who's a Celtic fan was going to some show a while back that was called 'Anyone but Celtic'.

  40. #140
    Senior Member Weaver's Avatar
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    That West Ham line up looks disgusting. 8-0 City.

  41. #141
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boydy View Post
    Do Rangers and Celtic fans both have a persecution complex then? My mate in work who's a Celtic fan was going to some show a while back that was called 'Anyone but Celtic'.
    Take your sectarian divide and add native Scottish bitterness. They should both be on the list of banned organisations along with Al-Muhajiroon.

  42. #142
    Senior Member John's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boydy View Post
    Do Rangers and Celtic fans both have a persecution complex then? My mate in work who's a Celtic fan was going to some show a while back that was called 'Anyone but Celtic'.
    This isn't a persecution complex. It's a situation specific to that song. Celtic get grief for their IRA shit, and a few years ago some of their fans got a shoeing for having a pop at the Ibrox Disaster, we get grief for our sectarian stuff, and people have been fucking jailed for singing the Famine Song. The press generally can't wait to report on a fruity song being sung in the stands of just about any club, but somehow Aberdeen bring out that one every time we play them and it's never even mentioned.

  43. #143
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    How is BBN Blackburn Rovers when CRE is Crewe Alexandra?

  44. #144
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Going back to Liverpool, it's nice that they respect those publicly owned media outlets which are not on the banned list.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football...droidApp_Tweet

    Oh wait. An immensely sinister football club.

  45. #145
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    How is BBN Blackburn Rovers when CRE is Crewe Alexandra?
    To distiniguish them from Blackpool, probably.

  46. #146
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    CRE isn't ambiguous, BLA is.

  47. #147
    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy Floyd View Post
    To distiniguish them from Blackpool, probably.
    Blackpool aren't playing Crewe though. Every other one of these 3 letter things on BBC that I've seen is the first 3 letters of the team name.

  48. #148
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    What will the teams in the Manchester derby be abbreviated to next weekend?

  49. #149
    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    Same reason the Schumacher lads were MSC and RSC, even after Ralf was gone, it's less ambiguous.

  50. #150
    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dino View Post
    What will the teams in the Manchester derby be abbreviated to next weekend?
    MOU and PEP.

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