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Thread: The Betting Thread

  1. #7701

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    Jesus.

    What an awful year Henderson has had.

  2. #7702
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Did anyone watch that race at Punchestown?

    A loose horse came from out of nowhere and decided to charge and spear the jockey off of the 2nd fav

  3. #7703

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    Yeah I’ve been watching it. The usual Irish shenanigans.

  4. #7704
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Did anyone watch that race at Punchestown?

    A loose horse came from out of nowhere and decided to charge and spear the jockey off of the 2nd fav
    Paul O’Brien reportedly ‘very very sore’ but if he’s well enough to ride Sir Psycho at 16:15, worth an EW shot. Currently 14/1

    Also Ballygrincottage at Uttoxeter tomorrow (17:45) is expected to win.
    I'm a twit

  5. #7705
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    This is pretty spot on for the state of play for Eurovision at the moment. Fuck knows. Hope someone copped the Ukraine 12s last week!

  6. #7706
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    Paul O’Brien reportedly ‘very very sore’ but if he’s well enough to ride Sir Psycho at 16:15, worth an EW shot. Currently 14/1

    Also Ballygrincottage at Uttoxeter tomorrow (17:45) is expected to win.
    can’t ride so JJ Slevin takes the reins. Decent enough replacement, let’s have it
    I'm a twit

  7. #7707
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    So it's not coming home then?

  8. #7708
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    Boycott it, you fucking fassyholes.

  9. #7709
    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    Are Israel still in it? I assume, if they are, that they have to qualify, so will probably avoid the ignominy of getting nul points in the final by suffering the less embarrassing fate of achieving the same in a semi nobody watches.

  10. #7710
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    can’t ride so JJ Slevin takes the reins. Decent enough replacement, let’s have it
    Harry Derham fan boy are we

    I got on Brentford Hope the other day. Decent place money

  11. #7711
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by niko_cee View Post
    Are Israel still in it? I assume, if they are, that they have to qualify, so will probably avoid the ignominy of getting nul points in the final by suffering the less embarrassing fate of achieving the same in a semi nobody watches.
    They will qualify and probably finish in the top 10, especially if anything warranting sympathy happens while they perform. You can't vote against an act.

  12. #7712
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Early guess at left side of the board, with ranges of potential finishes

    Ukraine: 1-3
    Italy: 1-5
    Croatia: 1-6
    Switzerland: 1-5
    Netherlands: 2-8
    France: 3-11
    Israel: 3-11
    Greece: 4-11
    Ireland: 5-16
    Norway: 6-15
    Sweden: 6-12
    UK: 6-16
    Belgium: 7-15
    Lithuania: 7-20

  13. #7713
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waffdon View Post
    Harry Derham fan boy are we

    I got on Brentford Hope the other day. Decent place money
    I may have a close connection to him.

    And yeah was 2nd despite top weight. Absolute monster of a horse.

    lol that LongShotValue has tipped Mars Harper 80/1 in the same race as Sir Psycho. Let’s have it
    Last edited by Baz; 03-05-2024 at 01:15 PM.
    I'm a twit

  14. #7714

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    In to 33/1 now.

  15. #7715
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    I had a fucking 26/1 shot win yesterday but it was in a mad accumulator that a bunch of favourites couldn't even manage places in so it was all for nothing.

  16. #7716
    Senior Member Boydy's Avatar
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    How's your ML going on the flat races @Ben?

  17. #7717
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Hgranca De Thaix
    Its On The Line
    Ballyburn

    50/1 treble

  18. #7718
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Wouldn’t be backing any of Townend’s short price favs after this week so far. At it

  19. #7719

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boydy View Post
    How's your ML going on the flat races @Ben?
    I think I'm slowly getting there. I still can't convert the JSON file for today's cards to a CSV for easy input but the accuracy is really good. Problem is, a top flat horse usually only wins 2 or 3 of their last 6 so the model could predict it within a half second and it might still not win. I manually inputted the racecards for Ascot this week and only come out with a couple of bets worth bothering with (11/2 win and 11/1 place), so a good strike rate but that was about three hours work because to get the model even more accurate I've created custom variables (jockey form, won previously in these conditions and class etc.) which takes a lot of clicking around on Racing Post to get the info.

    If I could crack the JSON thing then it would allow me to run a full day's worth of races in a couple of minutes.

  20. #7720
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Hgranca De Thaix
    Its On The Line
    Ballyburn

    50/1 treble
    What a shout. Hope Derek O’Connor doesn’t break your heart like he did mines at Cheltenham

  21. #7721
    Senior Member Lofty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    I may have a close connection to him.

    And yeah was 2nd despite top weight. Absolute monster of a horse.

    lol that LongShotValue has tipped Mars Harper 80/1 in the same race as Sir Psycho. Let’s have it
    Where did you see that tip? I got on a 40/1 thanks to you, cant see it on his twitter?

  22. #7722
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lofty View Post
    Where did you see that tip? I got on a 40/1 thanks to you, cant see it on his twitter?
    On his private telegram group. I'm not a paying member but when he tips something in a race my group have "info" for, someone generally leaks it.

    Glad you got on.
    I'm a twit

  23. #7723
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Offft, Itsontheline wins it on the line.

    Cash out must be tasty @Manc

  24. #7724
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Through the roof. I've jumped ship.

  25. #7725
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    I would. Either that or lumping a quarter of whatever the cash out is on it not winning at 7/2. Jockey has been a disgrace. Got to be at it.

    Which doesn’t really make sense as you’d think he’d want to win on a few of them to get the jockey championship. Looks like Jack Kennedy should be fine now even with his ban in place tomorrow

  26. #7726
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    https://eurovoxpop.uk/2024/05/06/eur...sals-forecast/

    Some superb stuff on the Israel televote here that's encouraged me to get them green on Betfair. It doesn't take a huge contingent to swing the televote (see: UK giving Lithuania at least 8 points every year).

  27. #7727
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    Though you can probably wait until after the jury votes have been announced and get them at 200/1 or something.

  28. #7728
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    What betting sites are people predominantly using atm? I've always been a skybet man due to the price boosts specifically for the GGs, but the golf prices simply aren't competitive. I'm considering boylesports who offer decent value for eight places.

  29. #7729
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I've been kicked out of betfair, so I use Skybet only, mainly because they put their markets up on time. If there's a good one I'd be interested in hearing but mostly it's a cartel I would assume.

  30. #7730
    Senior Member -james-'s Avatar
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    You should have an account with all of them, and use whoever has the best price/terms for the thing you want to bet on, of course.

  31. #7731

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    James is correct but I always default to Bet365 because I hate having a load of apps on my phone so I only have that one.

    As with Jim, I've been turfed from Betfair.

  32. #7732
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    I used to have the oddschecker app logged into every bookie you could name and place bets through that, but nowadays they’re all limited so I use [my mums] skybet almost exclusively as I’ve a second phone with bet365 on, but it’s usually too much fuss to bother with.
    I'm a twit

  33. #7733

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baz View Post
    I use [my mums] skybet almost exclusively as I’ve a second phone with bet365 on
    What, and what?

  34. #7734
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    What, and what?
    When I was betting a lot, my accounts were restricted so my mum made some accounts in her name. I had a second phone (I’d love to say it was my old one but I bought I specifically for gambling on. Even has a Bet365 case )for the bet365 one to avoid it being linked to my restricted account. I previously bought bet365 accounts and used them on my phone but they ended up getting restricted too. Skybet don’t seem so bothered so I use that on my usual phone and never had a problem.
    I'm a twit

  35. #7735
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by -james- View Post
    You should have an account with all of them, and use whoever has the best price/terms for the thing you want to bet on, of course.
    Sadist behaviour.

    At what profit are accounts being restricted?

  36. #7736

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    My Betfair one wasn't even that heavy in terms of profits. I guess I just bet on the wrong stuff in their opinion.

  37. #7737
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    You should have an account with every single bookie that offer sign up bonuses.

    I normally use paddy power as their withdrawals are in your bank within 10 seconds. They’ve banned most of them in my relatives names but my mums and sisters is still going strong (with the same bank details. No idea how)

  38. #7738
    Senior Member Jimmy Floyd's Avatar
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    I never knew quite what happened with my Betfair, one day I just couldn't log in having been 'permanently excluded', maybe it was that time I successfully matched £100 on Vladimir Putin to win the Russian election at 1.18.

  39. #7739
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Sadist behaviour.

    At what profit are accounts being restricted?
    I suppose but I was way in.

    Got to a point where I was weighing up between £25 and £50 a point, which would be more profitable in the long term. Went for £25 and got restricted really quick so in a blaze of fury upped to £100 and went down swinging. Was an exciting few days.

    I’d say I miss betting so frequently but as much as the money was lovely, the discipline to dedicate chunks of your day to getting prices and placing bets was a pain. Once I got to a point where a big winner was ‘okay that tops the balance up’ rather than WOOOO GO ON HORSE I knew it was time to become more casual. Plus my tipster stopped being good.
    I'm a twit

  40. #7740
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    TTH should run a tipping service. Jim & Ben can cover the golf. Me & Waff the horses. Ones to avoid with Don. Eastern flavours provided by JA.

  41. #7741
    Bookie Sir Andy Mahowry's Avatar
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    Can I take booking accas?

  42. #7742
    Senior Member Waffdon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    TTH should run a tipping service. Jim & Ben can cover the golf. Me & Waff the horses. Ones to avoid with Don. Eastern flavours provided by JA.
    With my strike rate of 10% we’d be able to charge a premium fee of £25 a month and all the degenerates would be all over it

  43. #7743
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Andy Mahowry View Post
    Can I take booking accas?
    Sure. We could also rope in Lofty's mate for the boxing.

  44. #7744
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    I'd have to stick to fixed matches, my recent record on non-fixed games is pretty hit & miss.

  45. #7745
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Rodrygo to be carded 7/1

    He’s got a message on his undershirt so surely if he scores, his shirts getting whipped off
    I'm a twit

  46. #7746
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    McIlroy
    Berger
    Stricker

    844/1

    Dahmen 80/1 is my e/w punt.

  47. #7747

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    13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1

  48. #7748
    Isn't he banned? Baz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1
    Not meant to be.

    I swear Boardman (also raced) is a plot job. Get it down to like 80 rating by September and let it romp home at 66/1.
    I'm a twit

  49. #7749

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ben View Post
    13:30 Chester - Master Zoffany 20/1
    Hope nobody followed. Some shit "info" off one of the guys in my syndicate.

  50. #7750

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    Israr looks good in the next at Chester but I going with Oviedo at 14/1 (2 places). Very good record last season and could have improved further.

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