I wrote this piece on Liam Manning earlier as I'd like to see him appointed (extremely boring if you're not a Sunderland fan), but it looks like Mowbray.
Liam Manning may not be our next head coach but I've written this for three reasons and I hope people find it useful:
1. He is currently leading in the new manager poll
2. Not many people seem to know too much about him
3. He was my first choice when we were last looking for a manager just a few month ago
Looking at Manning's experience first of all, and whilst it's true he hasn't managed in the Championship (like all the managers in the usual managerial merry-go-round), he has experience coaching at Manchester City, West Ham United and New York City, and he managed Belgian side Lommel SK before going to MK Dons. If people cast their minds back to May, we were generally delighted that Wycombe beat MK Dons in the playoffs and that we wouldn't have to face them in the final. When Manning moved to MK Dons, it was to continue the foundations laid by previous boss Russell Martin, in particular the playing style in which they had adopted.
This is mostly based off last season, but Manning has deployed the three at the back system we've become accustomed to under Alex Neil. He's shifted between a 3-4-2-1, 3-4-3 and 3-4-1-2 and it's interesting to note that when he took over from Russell Martin, he replaced a man who favoured playing 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2, suggesting a good fit here. However, it should be noted that at his Belgian club Manning preferred the 4-2-3-1 system, and if you remember back to when Neil first arrived, that's what we expected to see from him. The game has moved on in the past few years and now a back three system is very much in vogue, but it's encouraging that Manning has experience with different shapes. It's a shame he doesn't seem to have deployed a 4-3-3 very much though, especially with the style of football his teams play.
Manning likes a goalkeeper who is good with his feet. Patterson is a promising goalkeeper who will improve in all areas as he gets more experience. At the moment, he's okay with his feet and will certainly try to play in the modern and progressive way by playing it short, but there's room for improvement as his decision making needs work and he can dally a little bit and ultimately get caught in possession.
His back three are generally comfortable on the ball. This is an area where we probably need work, as Batth is first choice yet is more of a stopper. Ballard definitely fits the bill as does Cirkin, even though he's slightly unorthodox at times as a wide centre back.
The double pivot employed in front of the back three are also good footballers, including our former player Ethan Robson. It's easy to see Dan Neil thriving under Manning, however he might think twice about Corry Evans despite him being one of our most important players. Evans is generally good on the ball largely due to his calm head and vast experience, but he's an aggressive ball winner first and foremost. It would be very interesting to see what Manning thinks of Matete as we all know he's raw and very busy, but prone to lapses in concentration particularly with his passing and positioning. Embleton is another option here but alongside Neil there's a lack of real bite which will see us suffer against teams who are strong in attacking midfield areas.
Wing backs are an important part of three at the back systems and Manning's are no different. Gooch is the obvious player who can benefit here and Clarke has been moulded into this role in recent months too, though he still looks a bit uncomfortable at times. I still think there's a chance Cirkin may be a better long term fit here but it's not broken at the moment so no need to fix anything.
The front three are rotated and this is an area we're short in. Options include Pritchard and Embleton in behind one of Stewart and Simms, or if Cirkin moved to wing back you could potentially have Clarke and Pritchard playing off one of the strikers. The obvious option at the moment when everyone is fit would be Pritchard playing behind Simms and Stewart, but it's an area we're lacking a couple of players in.
MK Dons build from the back and from deep. They invite the opposition into them and then spring into attack when their opponents have committed to a high press. It's high risk, high reward football. It's clear why we'd need good, confident footballers in deeper areas but also players further forward who can exploit the space that opens up. We've got technical players like Pritchard, Clarke and Stewart who can do this but we might be lacking a bit in terms of pace, especially if space opens up behind the opponents last line of defence.
There may be some heart stopping moments at the back. Imagine Patterson has the ball at his feet on the edge of the box. Ballard moves wide to the right slightly further up the pitch, Cirkin does the same on the left, and Batth drops in alongside Patterson further along the edge of the box. Our shape becomes a back four with the goalkeeper acting as an auxiliary centre back. Evans or Neil drops into his DM position and we end up with a 2-3 shape consisting of our back three, goalkeeper and one of our pivots. This five will outnumber opponents and allow us to pass it around them, and depending on the opposition press, free up either one or both wing backs, and/or the other central midfield pivot player. This is what allows us to beat the press and build up an attack (MK Dons had a lot of build up attacks last season). Clarke and Pritchard (for example) have already displayed what they're capable of when given extra time and space to work with this season, so it could really benefit them if it works.
The double pivot and front three will allow us to overload central areas, and if the opposition remain narrow to accommodate us, space will be left out wide and our wing backs may find themselves isolated with the opposition full backs.
If you're thinking that we've been effective with two big strikers so far this season, then fear not as MK Dons are happy to play the long ball when required. It makes sense when teams are trying to prevent the build up play from the back and committing men in not the press, as it's an easy option to bypass that high, aggressive pressure. In fact, I feel it's something we could really exploit. It may require one of Simms and Stewart to work the channels, but neither of them are afraid of doing this and we can utilise both players' height, strength and work rate.
In the 'positional attack' phase, MK Dons can naturally shift into a 3-2-5 shape, with the wing backs joining the three attackers and the double pivot holding their position, able to keep possession moving across the flanks or break up counter attacks if required. The shape allows the team to counter press and break up attacks quickly, but without pace in the back line can be vulnerable to balls over the top and runners. This is something we'd need to be wary of.
When trying to break down stubborn defences, Manning likes to exploit the half spaces. If you cast your mind back to QPR at home, this is exactly what Pritchard and Neil were tasked with doing. On paper they were central midfielders, but on the ball they both moved extremely wide and overloaded the half spaces and channels. This allowed Neil to see more of the ball than I've seen in other games and generally he used it really well. Overloading these areas can often see the wing back gain possession of the ball in space, able to put a cross in. Whilst crosses generally have a low conversion rate, it goes without saying that it's something we look to exploit with two big strikers. Even under Neil this season we've seen us constantly look to find Gooch who provides the most width out of anyone, and he has either driven wide or cut inside and delivered into the area.
Everything I read about Manning suggests he is progressive, modern and proactive, and from what I understand of Speakmann and his model for Sunderland, he is the kind of candidate I expect us to be having a very close look at.
Some possible shapes with everyone fit:
Patterson
Ballard Batth Cirkin
Gooch Neil Evans Clarke
Pritchard
Simms Stewart
Patterson
Ballard Batth Cirkin
Gooch Neil Evans Clarke
Embleton Pritchard
Stewart
Patterson
Ballard Batth Wright
Gooch Neil Evans Cirkin
Pritchard Stewart Clarke