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Thread: Climate Change

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    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Climate Change

    Just how badly have we fucked the planet? I want scientific reports, twitter threads, the lot.

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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Very.


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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    We haven't fucked the planet at all, barely scratched the surface in fact. Bits of the climate are looking pretty ropey but that only affects the people living on the surface.

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    Watch the Attenborough documentary on Netflix Manc, it explains all you need to know.

    The tldw is that we're fucking the planet for us to live on as a species, but we're not yet past the point of no return and it's debatable when that will be. My view is we'll absolutely hit it at some point and the Earth will be a horrible place to live for humans, but other stuff will still be here.

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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Stuff like this is really cool though: https://www.engadget.com/magnetized-...041225378.html

    The transformation into better, newer, greener solutions could finally make the world like tomorrow's world.

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    Well, it will for the countries that employ it but it'll matter little when China and India are still pumping out as much crap as they both do. We're fucked. Well, I say we, those in our age group will be dead before this really all hits home.

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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    You'd think the richer bits of the world will be able to Malthus their way out of it a bit but the rest are fucked.

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    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    Watch the Attenborough documentary on Netflix Manc, it explains all you need to know.
    Added to the list.

    In terms of the knock-on effect on the weather system. How frequently are these freak incidents (flooding in Germany as an example) likely to occur?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Added to the list.

    In terms of the knock-on effect on the weather system. How frequently are these freak incidents (flooding in Germany as an example) likely to occur?
    I'm only guessing here, but given the weatherman can't tell me what's going to happen tomorrow with any degree of accuracy, presumably no one knows.

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    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    If it was in real trouble then there would be real solutions rather than token monetisations. That’s about all I need to know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Disco View Post
    You'd think the richer bits of the world will be able to Malthus their way out of it a bit but the rest are fucked.
    Surely as we share the same eco-system, we're all fucked.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Giggles View Post
    If it was in real trouble then there would be real solutions rather than token monetisations. That’s about all I need to know.
    I thought that for a while too, years ago mind, but the reality of it is that there are no solutions other than the ones people don't want to take, because they mean drastically changing the way we live before we can actually see the problem, which no one is prepared to do.

    Think of it like the Pandemic, if Boris had announced in January last year that he was shutting the borders immediately he'd have been lolled out of parliament.

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    And we could change how we live, but China and India will carry on regardless and I genuinely think people would rather live in no World than one where China are willingly given an advantage.

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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    I think you'll find those with more money will do better than those without and if it gets to the point where it thins the population out a bit then 'we' will either learn our lesson (it's not like we don't already know how to stop the damage, we just don't want to) or we go around again.

    And while we're here, the climate has nothing to do with how shit Michael Fish is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Disco View Post
    I think you'll find those with more money will do better than those without
    Yeah, course. I assume it will wipe a few billion out and Bezos types will build super structures in mountains to live in and stay relatively unscathed. It won't wipe us all out I don't think. The super rich will find a way to stay alive.

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    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Globally we are the super rich, so we will just wall off the brownlands and grow fat on the Siberian breadbasket.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manc View Post
    Just how badly have we fucked the planet? I want scientific reports, twitter threads, the lot.
    Hard to tell. If you're really curious, check out the IPCC report. It is the source. The projections for 2100 seem... not all that bad to me? The mainstream notion is that we need drastic changes or we are fucked. Different people mean different things by "being fucked", but if you go by IPCC projections, then it is not clear what would be worse for humans living in 2100: climate change or some of the "drastic changes" bandied about.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    Globally we are the super rich, so we will just wall off the brownlands and grow fat on the Siberian breadbasket.
    Unless "the brownlands" grow rich too, then they won't have to worry too much either.

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    So Pep, you don't think the atmosphere is going to become unbreathable? IIRC Attenborough seemed quite convinced it would.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    By 2100? No. Even the worst case scenarios in IPCC do not predict that. All models only go up to 2100, btw.

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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    I think we'll start with some areas simply becoming uninhabitable, either because the climate makes it too hot/cold etc for it to be practical or because population pressure gives way to outright chaos (or more likely a blend of the two). Most of the rest of the world will probably carry on much as before, it's not like we haven't happily ignored famines that killed tens of millions of people on multiple occasions or decades long local conflicts that have done the same albeit on a smaller scale. Once the Chinese are on board and/or if we've managed to move away from oil as the solution to literally everything it might be possible to slow it down.

    Oil is the big one for me, if we can find a decent source of energy that doesn't involve (finding, getting, moving, refining, selling, moving again and finally) burning the stuff then that's half the battle.

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    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    The population projections for the parts of the world that currently struggle to sustain themselves is the bigger long-term concern. They will either tear themselves to pieces or get on the move.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    The population projections for the parts of the world that currently struggle to sustain themselves is the bigger long-term concern. They will either tear themselves to pieces or get on the move.
    People always talk about how places like Bangladesh will get too hot and will be underwater and all of that because of climate change. Well, the place is already a shithole, climate change or not, and will only get worse if, as you say, the population keeps growing at the same rate and they don't get their act together. Now, if they were to do a China and become rich, then the place would become more bearable (AC is pretty nice) and the population increase would slow down, as it often does in richer countries.

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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    Sounds a lot like competition, lets not risk it.

  25. #25
    I used to be funny.
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    Yeah, I know the recent floods in NYC got people on twitter bemoaning climate change but it glosses over the more obvious problem of shit infrastructure. The North River tunnels are still fucked from Hurricane Sandy.

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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    The issue we're seeing now is the feedback loops are accelerating events and causing faster and faster change (as mentioned in either thread, see the temperature rises in the Arctic circle which is 4-6 degrees at times more than normal) .

    There's not going to be a safe space if eco systems collapse and the natural order goes with it. And I disagree on China, I actually think they have the government to be the boldest (they've promised a lot recently but their coal addiction says otherwise).

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    This is what Dickie says in it:

    If we continue on our current course the damage that has been the defining feature of my lifetime will be eclipsed by the damage coming in the next. Science predicts that were I born today I would be witness to the following:

    2030s: Amazon rainforest degrades into a dry savannah, altering the global water cycle. Arctic becomes ice free in the summer. Without the white ice cap less of the sun's energy is reflected back out to space and the speed of global warming increases.
    2040s: Throughout the North frozen soils thaw releasing methane, accelerating the rate of climate change dramatically.
    2050s: Oceans heat and becomes more acidic, killing coral reefs and fish populations crash
    2080s: Global food production enters a crisis as soils become exhausted by overuse. Pollenating insects disappear and the weather is more and more unpredictable
    2100s: Our planet becomes 4 degrees warmer. Large parts of the Earth are now uninhabitable. A 6th mass extinction event is well underway.

    Mis-remembered the bit about the atmosphere being unbreathable, it's not in there from his mouth, just a lot of imagery instead that leaves that impression on you.

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    Won the Old Board Lewis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe View Post
    People always talk about how places like Bangladesh will get too hot and will be underwater and all of that because of climate change. Well, the place is already a shithole, climate change or not, and will only get worse if, as you say, the population keeps growing at the same rate and they don't get their act together. Now, if they were to do a China and become rich, then the place would become more bearable (AC is pretty nice) and the population increase would slow down, as it often does in richer countries.
    Has anywhere ever got rich enough quickly enough to absorb population growth on the sort of scale predicted for 2100? China had to suppress its population to the tune of about half a billion fewer people being born, and industrial revolution Europe could flush its excess populations overseas in numbers that would need the contemporary United States to be taking tens of millions a year in. How is Egypt going to provide opportunities for its population doubling when it can't do so for its existing one unless half of it floods and becomes arable?

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    He also says that each of those steps should be viewed like doors that once opened, cannot be closed.

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    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    Has anywhere ever got rich enough quickly enough to absorb population growth on the sort of scale predicted for 2100? China had to suppress its population to the tune of about half a billion fewer people being born, and industrial revolution Europe could flush its excess populations overseas in numbers that would need the contemporary United States to be taking tens of millions a year in. How is Egypt going to provide opportunities for its population doubling when it can't do so for its existing one unless half of it floods and becomes arable?
    War. Loads of juicy wars. Especially when food and water supplies are getting stretched.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    If anyone is willing, I would bet some money that the Arctic will not be ice free in the summer by 2030. Any takers?

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Even RCP8.5 (IPCC's worst case scenario) only predicts that happening by 2050, with some big-ass uncertainty bars.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe View Post
    If anyone is willing, I would bet some money that the Arctic will not be ice free in the summer by 2030. Any takers?
    2030s so you've got until 31st December 2039 presumably for him to be wrong. What's your take on the rest of it and the doors being opened not being able to be closed stuff?

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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe View Post
    If anyone is willing, I would bet some money that the Arctic will not be ice free in the summer by 2030. Any takers?
    Probably highly unlikely all year round but a lot more days than 20 years prior.

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    ram it up your shitpipe Giggles's Avatar
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    2030: Giggles may not be alive any more.
    2040: Giggles probably won’t be alive any more.
    Some time later: world burns

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    2030s so you've got until 31st December 2039 presumably for him to be wrong. What's your take on the rest of it and the doors being opened not being able to be closed stuff?
    Ok, I will bet that by the summer of 2039, the arctic will not be ice-free.

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    Senior Member Queenslander's Avatar
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    We will keep digging all the coal, iron ore etc out of the ground for rest of time thank you very much.

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yevrah View Post
    What's your take on the rest of it and the doors being opened not being able to be closed stuff?
    Most of it seems to assume worst case scenarios (which is not the path currently being followed, btw) and takes a lot of positive feedback loops to be a certainty, which THE SCIENCE has actually very little information about. The 4 degrees by 2100 is IPCC's worst case scenario, which assumes zero mitigation. We are already doing some mitigation, so it is a very unlikely scenario. That is just being alarmist, which might be effective to get people on the "let's do something" side, but it is not very honest. Anyone honest would base their predictions on IPCC's most likely scenario, not on the worst one (how would you feel if someone told you everything is going to be fine based on the best case scenario?)

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    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewis View Post
    Has anywhere ever got rich enough quickly enough to absorb population growth on the sort of scale predicted for 2100? China had to suppress its population to the tune of about half a billion fewer people being born, and industrial revolution Europe could flush its excess populations overseas in numbers that would need the contemporary United States to be taking tens of millions a year in. How is Egypt going to provide opportunities for its population doubling when it can't do so for its existing one unless half of it floods and becomes arable?
    Well, hopefully the population growth slows down too. I am sure everyone a hundred years ago predicted Europe's population to continue increasing wildly, yet here we are.

  40. #40
    Senior Member Manc's Avatar
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    Enlightening stuff, Pepe.

    How old is Giggles that he isn't seeing 2040?

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    Senior Member niko_cee's Avatar
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    On the subject of Attenborough I was speaking to someone who was a producer or something on the Blue Planet series (I think) recently and found the fact that all of his stuff is very tightly scripted, and he has pretty much zero input into it, somewhat of a let down. He's basically just Ron Burgundy.

  42. #42
    I used to be funny.
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    The animals need narratives.

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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe View Post
    Most of it seems to assume worst case scenarios (which is not the path currently being followed, btw) and takes a lot of positive feedback loops to be a certainty, which THE SCIENCE has actually very little information about. The 4 degrees by 2100 is IPCC's worst case scenario, which assumes zero mitigation. We are already doing some mitigation, so it is a very unlikely scenario. That is just being alarmist, which might be effective to get people on the "let's do something" side, but it is not very honest. Anyone honest would base their predictions on IPCC's most likely scenario, not on the worst one (how would you feel if someone told you everything is going to be fine based on the best case scenario?)
    What's your involvement in all of this Pepe? I am heartened by your more brightened viewpoint on this (but then I'm in climate doom on twitter :-))

  44. #44
    Senior Member Pepe's Avatar
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    I got no involvement. I am just interested.

    My research is mainly in combustion science though, and I teach a course on internal combustion engines, so if you want to discredit everything I ever say on the matter, just say that I am obviously biased because I want to keep my field alive. My latest work was on the manufacturing of battery cathode materials, so I got both bases covered, but still.

  45. #45
    Senior Member Spikey M's Avatar
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    Part of the Arctic Circle is current on fire, which is fun.


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    Administrator Kikó's Avatar
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    Siberia has been on fire for a large part of the last 18 months.

  47. #47
    Webly Ian's Avatar
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    I bet it's the pesky gays wot dun it.

  48. #48
    The Artist Formerly Known as Taz
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    It's just what they deserve for not raising their kids on a diet of RuPaul's Drag Race.

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    Senior Member Disco's Avatar
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    It's also why you're paying through the nose for stuff like plywood at the moment.

  50. #50
    Senior Member Bernanke's Avatar
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    Ash from forest fires covering snow making it absorb more heat and melt faster is a real big brain global warming power move.

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