The Betting Thread

[Jimmy Floyd]

I'm not too bothered from here, even if Cantlay wins. Despite the whole thing being a massive fraud, I'm pretty content with the process if my two top picks are 1st and 2nd with a couple of holes left.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Fucking pussy rules officials suspending play for a bit of rain.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Fairly sure Cantlay has the greater bottle of the two, though it's a bit of a race to the bottom in that regard.

[Kikó]

Cheers Jim. Both Cantlay and Collin showed some stones near the end with their putting. Money back and a little more.

[Lofty]

Yeah thanks Jim.

[Jimmy Floyd]

An odd and quirky week in golf this week, coming before the US Open next week (the qualifying for which is running at the moment: RIP Rickie again). The European Tour are running something called the 'Scandinavian Mixed', which is a tournament with 78 men and 78 women all playing on the same leaderboard for the same prize pot and trophy. This is a bit of a chin-stroker of a concept (I can't see how the men won't dominate, but I guess we'll see) and the bookies seem to agree, as they have thus far declined to put up a market at all. As such I will be giving that one a swerve and sticking to the PGA Tour event in the US this week.

Palmetto Championship

Normally we would have the Canadian Open this week, but for the second year running it's been cancelled as the Canadians are being a lot more tight about covid than the incredibly lax Americans are (it amazes me how few of them give a damn, and occasionally, as Jon Rahm found out, this comes back to bite you). For a replacement event, it's back to South Carolina for a hastily arranged tournament at Congaree. This is classic Carolinas sandy/swampy type territory, burned down by Sherman in 1865, and at some point after that someone decided to build a golf course on what was left. Coming directly before a major, the field is an unusual mix of the bottom-feeding guys you would normally only see in opposite field events, but also Dustin Johnson and a few other bigger names wanting a tune-up before Torrey Pines on the other coast. As ever with these new courses that no one in the field has played, research is required to find out who actually has played them, but off the books. That research, allied to the standard computer methods, leads me to this little squadron.

Fitzpatrick 14/1
Glover 30/1
Varner III 40/1
Werenski 80/1
Garnett 125/1
McGirt 600/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Betfair exchange has it up but £0 has been staked on the market.

It sounds a bit mental.

Will they be using handicaps or something to help the women be able to compete? Able to tee off closer? Surely they're going to get smashed on the par 5s?

[Jimmy Floyd]

The women will be from forward tees (as they always are), but even then it is quite difficult to set up. For example if they set it up so the tee shots are landing in the same place then the men will always have a more lofted club in, so to equalise it they will need to have the women land the tee shots further up than the men to have the same club in. Even then, I'm pretty sure the men would be better with wedges and around the green, even if it's by less. So I am a bit curious to see how they end up doing it. The women playing are far fron the world's best, too.

[Lofty]

Sky offering women only for it.

[Manc]

Talk to me about Kevin Kisner @Jimmy Floyd.

[Jimmy Floyd]

A player I like, and probably knows the territory over there, but has shown no form this year. His ball striking has receded to average tour level, which you can't afford when you're a shorter hitter. I'd want 66/1 or higher.

[Baz]

"It’s a golf course that really on paper does not suit my game," said regular visitor William McGirt, apparently confirming that view. "When you look at the scorecard and you see 7,800 yards, I’m not a bomber. So you have a very long golf course with no real penalty off the tee for spraying it."

Love the bluffing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I saw that Luke List had the course record too and thought, nah, it's not that easy. Somehow BC and I have both alighted upon HV3 so here's hoping the method works.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Am relenting and putting up four for the Scandi Mixed (men only market) to keep myself interested for the next two days. SkyBet are doing 5 places for 1/4 the odds.

Fox 16/1
Besseling 30/1
Kruyswijk 40/1
Aberg (am) 66/1

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Euro 2020(1) bets:

£10 on BTTS in Italy/Turkey match @ 2.4

£5 on Lewandowski top scorer @ 26
£5 on England to finish third in their group @ 8.5
£5 on Czech Republic to win their group @ 11
£5 on Kane, Lukaku & Lewandowski to score a headed goal each @ 13
£5 on Kane & Lukaku to score 3 or more, Yilmaz & Depay 2 or more and Ferran Torres 1 or more @ 8
£2 on Poland to reach the quarters & Lewandowski to score 5 or more @ 23
£1 on Turkey to reach the semis, Benzema top scorer & Bellingham best young player @ 301
£1 on Turkey to reach semis, Denmark win group B & Bellingham best young player @ 501
£1 on Kane & Mbappe 4 or more goals and Jota, Insigne & Yilmaz to score 2 or more @ 51.

I only feel confident in the Turkey/Italy BTTS tonight, I can't wait to see all the tournament bets crash and burn.

[Baz]

I’ve three free bets to use on the England matches, but dunno what to do.

So far my only bets are Hungary to score the fewest goals @5/1 and Kante player of the tournament @40/1

Oh and Netherlands to win it @14/1 but only cos I get a free £5 bet every time they win a group game.

[-james-]

Top team goalscorers:
Austria - Baumgartner @15
Denmark - Kjaer @67
Spain - Ferran Torres @4.5
Netherlands - Depay @2.5

Tournament goals:
Denmark - u5.5 @1.8
Poland - u4.5 @1.73
Croatia - u5.5 @1.8
Austria - u3.5 @2.2
Ukraine - u4.5 @1.83

Lukaku to outscore Mbappe @1.8
Netherlands Austria straight forecast @3

[Jimmy Floyd]

Here is my list of mug punts for Euro '21

Golden Boot: Robert Lewandowski @ 25/1 (4 places)
Exactly 131 goals scored: @ 18/1
Yann Sommer most clean sheets @ 18/1
North Macedonia to reach QF @ 16/1
Scotland out on penalties @ 14/1
Top Chelsea goalscorer Mason Mount @ 4/1
Austria to concede the most goals @ 16/1
Joao Felix Best Young Player @ 10/1
Total penalties scored: Over 14.5 @ 8/13
Wales last in Group A @ 11/10
Tournament forecast: 1 Portugal 2 France @ 40/1
Finland to score fewest goals @ 7/1
Group C most goals @ 9/2

[Offshore Toon]

I stuck a fiver on Turkey to win a couple week back. It is written.

[Jimmy Floyd]

US Open

Toggle Spoiler

For the first time since 2008, we are at Torrey Pines in San Diego for the US Open, the third major of the year - they come thick and fast at this point. The 2008 edition was a truly memorable one, with Tiger Woods holing his famous 'Expect anything different?' putt to force an 18 hole playoff with likeable New York journeyman Rocco Mediate, which Woodsy duly (though barely) won to claim the 14th and last major before it all went south for him. Torrey Pines is a familiar venue as it also hosts a regular PGA Tour event in January/February each year. However, the US Open is the self-declared 'toughest test in golf' so you can expect a much drier and tougher golf course than the one seen a few months back when Fat Pat Reed claimed his most recent victory.

Unlike the last two majors, the US Open (as the name suggests) takes its field (after the usual top 50 exemptions etc) from a series of open qualifying events. As such you get some right old randomers who manage to make it through alongside the more familiar names. The highest profile such event was last Monday in Columbus, where the last place in the field was decided by the carnage a 12 man playoff (going for 1 place). England's Ben Taylor holed his approach shot for an eagle to send the other 11 - including Rickie Fowler - packing. Fowler and other fallen names didn't make it but you will see appearances from Peru's Luis Barco, Costa Rica's Luis Gagne, and some classic American golfer regen names like Zach Zaback, Davis Shore and Wilson Furr.

In between my own schedule and the Euros, I hope to get as much viewing in as possible, and this week I have a quite simple six fancies to go with.

Xander Schauffele 16/1. Sooner or later, it has to happen for Xander at a major championship. Among the top players, he has consistently shown perhaps the greatest ability to peak at the right time for the majors. He's had 8 top 10 finishes at majors by the age of 27, and nowhere has he looked more comfortable than on the tough US Open setups, where in four stabs he has incredibly never finished below 6th place. Not only that, but he is in his home city of San Diego so will undoubtedly feel comfortable at a venue he knows well and where he finished in a tie for second place earlier this year. I find this price surprising.

Tony Finau 25/1. For a player whose continued failure to win is almost a running joke in golf circles - see this song which went viral last year - Tony has been a surprisingly profitable geezer for me, bringing home 9.3 of the 292.43pts I'm up this year. As such, when he came up on the computer's radar for this I was happy to plough in again. I have a sort of vision of him finally winning and it being a US Open (or maybe a Masters). The reason for this is he is quite simply better at golf than almost everyone. He has logged a cool ten top 10 finishes in majors, most of them more of the backdoor variety compared to Xander, but that's still no bad thing for an each way bet. I just hope at some point he gains a putting stroke and/or a temperament.

Joaquin Niemann 50/1. He has long been a favourite of mine, not just for his dreamy Chilean eyes but mainly because he has a phenomenally consistent golf game. He has yet to really turn up at a major but it has to happen some time and I don't see why it shouldn't happen at a venue like Torrey Pines where his sneaky distance and crisp iron play will be of great benefit. This price feels just long of right.

Jason Kokrak 60/1. This price, on the other hand, feels really quite long. Kokrak is a recent winner and has really come to the fore over the last year, apparently since changing his putting grip. This allowed him to start capitalising on his unsubtle length - he's more a Dodge Ram of golfers than a Ferrari Enzo. Nonetheless his win over (an admittedly bed-shitting) Spieth the other week will have given him confidence that his career is finally at a point where he can take on the big dogs. He'll have to have a good putting week but his game feels well inside this price.

Charley Hoffman 80/1. Hoffman has had a quietly very good year on Tour - 29th on the points list without a win - and at 44 the chances are starting to run out for someone right on the cusp of being a journeyman or not. Four wins in his career is a good record and the first of them also came in southern California, where we are this week, albeit inland. Hoffman's main claim to fame is being the first round leader at the Masters - something he has done several times - and then fading at the weekend. In fact, his best major finish was 8th at the US Open in 2017 and he's made the cut at six of the seven US Opens he's contested. With his ball-striking form the way it is, I can't resist a punt.

Chan Kim 500/1. Although an American citizen, Kim plays primarily in Japan and had to qualify for this from scratch. He did so with aplomb, winning the Rolling Hills qualifying site with aplomb at -10 from two rounds. What I cannot understand is why an accomplished golfer ranked as highly as 83 in the world is slumming it at 500/1 along with all the plebs ranked around 300 places lower. Sure, the OWGR can overvalue wins in Japan, but wins are wins, and they mean you are better than the competition, so I find it mystifying. Perhaps all the Kims blend into one another and people without a strong American presence can be overlooked. Although unlikely, a top 11 (Skybet pays this many places) seems far from impossible and I will be having a piece.

(I may take a break after this one, I get so busy in the summer which limits my research time each week. We'll see)

[Kikó]

All in one last time. Thanks for the past few months Jim.

[Baz]

Apologies if this has been asked before but do you do level stakes for every pick?

+293 in 6 months is crazy. Thanks for sharing.

[Kikó]

No he doesn't

[Jimmy Floyd]

I don't. I stake 5pts e/w and distribute them. This probably isn't an optimum method so I don't share it but it is used for the overall calculations. Last week's for an example:

Fitzpatrick 14 1.50
Glover 30 1.00
Varner III 40 1.00
Werenski 80 0.75
Garnett 125 0.50
McGirt 600 0.25

[Don]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ambling-addict

Some great rides described in that

[Jimmy Floyd]

Anyone who likes a bit of group permutations bingo:

At 5pm tonight, Australia play Jordan in the final round of their World Cup qualifying group. Jordan must win this game to have any chance of progressing to the next round.

At 7pm, Saudi Arabia play Uzbekistan knowing the Jordan result - if Jordan haven't beaten Australia, then a draw takes both Saudi/Uzbek through. Currently 21/10 the draw. Might be worth getting on early if Australia go a couple ahead in play. My only concern about going early is I don't know if Aus (evidently the stronger side on paper) will roll over for Jordan.

[Manc]

Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thoughts on Homa? @Jimmy Floyd?

I'd want three figures minimum.

[Don]

If we somehow end up only drawing against Iraq, MBS will threaten a chainsaw massacre on all the Saudi players if they don't throw the Uzbek game. They'll do anything to stop us from progressing.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I've got you through with a point as long as Jordan don't win.

Must be a new world record for permutations. Mood said to be 'relaxed' in the Lebanon camp.

[Baz]

Hungary haven’t scored yet.

[Mazuuurk]

Got BTTS here. Come on Pen-land.

[niko_cee]

It'll never last but got to get a comment in here whilst Dickie Bland shares the lead of the US fucking Open well into his second round.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He is on the ultimate divorced dad mad bender. Nearly 30 years of utter mediocrity and now suddenly lighting up everything he touches.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Don't think any of my runners will be in it, but this US Open final day is setting up to be absolutely brilliant.

[Manc]

I was fed whispers of Koepka earlier in the week. Praying for a bottle job.

[Mellberg]

Early start in the morning. Shaping up to be a problem.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I love it when Bryson fucks up.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Rahm and the chokemaster general going toe to toe to the finish line with a whiny Bryson wheezing his way back into the pack, this is what major Sundays are all about.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That bunker shot

The scientist is on the ropes.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

While part of me would love it if Rahm won here I'd also be a little gutted that it would happen when THE COMPUTER isn't on him.

Although I do think that would be very fitting for Rahm.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I was out of my chair for both those putts on 17 and 18, so yeah, fuck Rahm, but also, love Rahm. What a player.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That was brilliant.

I didn't think he'd get either of those.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Louis has choked.

[Jimmy Floyd]

He already has the grand slam of runner ups in majors and now halfway through a second one. Absolute all time great of finishing second.

[Kikó]

I wish we could have been there for the final Rahm train. :-(

[Jimmy Floyd]

He was just too short to back, 7/1 or something. Christ if I'd been on him I might have woken up the neighbourhood for his putt on 17.

I'll have a little break now and be back for the Open. Had a slightly meh run recently which has taken the 2021 profits down to about 65%.

[niko_cee]

Both Rahm and Hideki picking up majors does feel a bit of an affront to the computer, but then I guess that's how it works.

Feel a bit for Little Louis and his grand slam of second places (seeing him up against Bomb and Gouge is quite funny), but then I've always resented him as a bit of a fraud for that Open win when he just scampered off in the best conditions of both first days.

Has the meh run coincided with whichever of Yev or Boydy joined the train most recently? Coolers!

[niko_cee]

Also, loved that ball up a tree moment. That was it for me though, west coast US Majors are a bit of a pain in the backside from a Monday morning perspective.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Yeah, I'm on about 5 hours' sleep but it was worth it to see someone actually win a major rather than be handed it by crumpling arseholes as is normally the case.

The main enemy of the computer are game-raising bastards who come out of nowhere after shoddy runs of form, Rahm wasn't that (he was just too short) but Hideki and Mickelson definitely were, as have a few others been.