The Betting Thread

[Manc]

The joys of unemployment.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Lad, I swear there's a golf thread, don't pollute me like this.

You start a new thread for your mug accas on Everpool.

[niko_cee]

Is it just me, Jimmy and Mahow on this train? Big money on the line.

Hopefully Burns can pull away a bit to comfortably place too.

I'm also on, what I would give for a Whistling Straight rule infraction for DJ right about now.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I could live with losing to DJ as he's a bit of an alien, but if Hideki takes this I might cry.

At least should have the each way part in now.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

That is a glorious approach shot.

If Hideki and DJ could fuck off that would be nice.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

A shame he missed the eagle putt by a bit but DJ missing that birdie helps.

[Manc]

Has anyone put double figures on this lad? Scenes if so.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I did £2 E/W on all of them.

[Offshore Toon]

£1 e/w plus 20p doubles across the two tournaments.

[Baz]

Potential Returns:
£41.70

[niko_cee]

Has anyone put double figures on this lad? Scenes if so.

What you're really asking here is does anyone need serious professional help.

I've got doubt figures (pence, 50 e/w) on our man Carlos at 150/1.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I'm on for £304 if he does it.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Closes it out in style too.

Jimmy

[Jimmy Floyd]

First Mexican winner for 42 years, on the weekend Trump got kicked out of office. It was written in the stars.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

[Manc]

Get the Twitter account created, Jim. Subscription service should see you part time within the year.

[Offshore Toon]

God bless you, Jimmy. Cheers.

[Baz]

What you're really asking here is does anyone need serious professional help.

I mean, I had 500 on the Vietnam game.

Nice one Jimmy. Really good tips. Burns got me £22.24 and Ortiz £41.70, off £2.78 on each. Plus Detry got me £6.72 before.

Gz Mahow.

[Manc]

I mean, I had 500 on the Vietnam game.

Fucking lunatic.

[Jimmy Floyd]

I had £3.50 each way so it's been a good evening. I think Carlos is my second longest winner ever (Ashun Wu 300/1 at the China Open will never be beaten).

[Baz]

Fucking lunatic.

Free £150.

[Jimmy Floyd]

The Masters

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The market loves length. Now, I can see why it loves length. We're all thinking the course will be softer than usual and this in theory should favour length. The market certainly thinks so. Bryson (the longest driver in golf) is favourite and all the way down the board longer hitters are shorter than they might be.

At Winged Foot the market loved accuracy and the market was wrong. Bryson prevailed easily because with narrow fairways and thick rough, his distance advantage was multiplied by how much easier his short approach shots from the rough were compared to everyone else's long shots (he also putted really well). This created a statistical mask to the quality of his approach play which won't exist at Augusta, where there isn't really any rough. Plus, if the course really is on the softer side, the greens will be that much more receptive to the longer irons from further back (on firmer greens, it is far easier to hold wedges). At Winged Foot I was seduced by the market's 'wisdom' and not much happened for my picks, but here I've decided to start from a position of believing that the market will be wrong again, and the length advantage here will be no more than it is anywhere else.

As such my philosophy has been to side with ball-striking and method rather than bombing power. My top pick player is long too (which will help) but my longer priced players are the shorter-hitting grinders who I believe the market has over-reacted against.

These odds are with my substandard bookie for 10 places. You should be able to find better elsewhere.

Each way, to win
Jon Rahm, 9/1. This is an obvious pick but an enthusiastic one when you think Bryson is at 15/2, and DJ has now also snuck inside him. Rahm ticks all four of my boxes and then some. He has played three Masters and twice made the top ten. His short game is for my money the best in the world, and his form this year has been exceptional, bouncing back and forth at world numbers one and two. For my money Rahm, and not DeChambeau, should be favourite. Spanish players have won a total of eight majors, and five of them have been Masters - two for Seve, two for Olazabal, and one for Garcia. Rahm is in that tradition and I fancy him rotten to break his Major duck this week. As well as taking him E/W I will also have a chunk on him outright on the exchange.

Tyrrell Hatton, 25/1. Hatton is a great golfer to watch, effing and jeffing his way around the course and flicking the bird at inanimate objects. He has also had a breakthrough year this year, raising his level to that of the elite. He is a complete golfer, with no real weakness in his game, with a very hot last couple of months, and a breakthrough win at Bay Hill earlier in the year which will have raised his native confidence playing against world class fields in the US. His course form here is not stellar - three played, two cuts made, two lowly finishes - but he delivered a victory a few weeks ago at Wentworth, which is an English Augusta in so many ways.

Hideki Matsuyama, 25/1. This would be a heart pick if the computer wasn't telling me every week that this guy is due for a big one. Why not the biggest one of all? Hideki is probably in the top 5 ball strikers in the world, but he hasn't holed a putt since Nagasaki. This makes him a real white-knuckle rollercoaster of a golfer to back. I was going to eschew him at these odds before researching his course form and it turns out to be a lot better than I thought. He's made 7 of 8 cuts here, with two top tens, and was the low amateur back in 2011. I've backed him a few times this autumn and the returns have not been good. But why would I not want to be on Hideki when he becomes the first Japanese player to win a major? He's a labour of love.

Matthew Fitzpatrick, 50/1. Conventional wisdom has the big hitters eating this place alive, but Fitzpatrick is highly rated by the computer so I'm going to go in the opposite direction. The colder it is, the more someone like Matt Fitz will come into play. It was so in 2007 when Zach Johnson won and it could be so again. Fitz has been putting like God this year and only a few bizarre mistakes have stopped him from winning on either side of the pond. He is a wizard with the wedges and a very straight hitter who will plot his way around.

Kevin Kisner, 100/1. This is my only American selection for the win, and a player in a similar mould to Fitzpatrick. Kisner is my favourite southern battler. He's played here the last four years and made the cut each time. He isn't the longest but he is a great grinder and this price looks long to me with chumps like Fowler at half the tariff.


I also have some other side action on. Might find another couple before Thursday if any more markets go up.

Dual forecast: Jon Rahm / Xander Schauffele 80/1
Top 10 finish: Tyler Duncan 25/1
Top 20 finish: Tyler Duncan 8/1
Will there be a playoff? Yes 7/2

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've gone £5 E/W on each. And then £3-£7 on the side pieces.

I wouldn't mind a Hatton win, I've started to really like him over the last couple of months.

[Manc]

Phenomenal.

[Offshore Toon]

Great write up. I enjoyed watching on Sunday so will probably tune in again this weekend at some point.

[Kikó]

On the train.

[Mike]

On those!

[Manc]

I like the look of Hatton.

[Baz]

I’m on.

[Jimmy Floyd]

If Bryson wins it by ten I'll probably commit suicide, just fyi.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CBSxnnv...ource=ig_embed

See how far you can make it in before spewing.

[Manc]

Sprinkling his PEDs on toast.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Few extras for pence from the silly markets

Top Korean: An 3/1
Top debutant: Van Rooyen 14/1
Top past champ: Reed 3/1
Top amateur: Augenstein 5/2
Top senior: Weir 14/1
Top Aussie: Smith 3/1

Top Englishman is a great market, but having backed Hatton and Fitz outright there's no way I can justify taking the oh so tempting Westwood 10/1 odds.

[Lofty]

All aboard!

[Manc]

Thoughts on Finau? @Jimmy Floyd

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bottler.

[Jimmy Floyd]

Thoughts on Finau? @Jimmy Floyd

Has the tools for the job but don't trust his putting. Would want him 40/1 or so.

[Lofty]

My mate who is a tennis nonce is balls deep on this Forejtek kid to beat Gasquet today.

[Manc]

What time does the Masters tee off?

[Jimmy Floyd]

First man tees off 12 noon British time tomorrow.

[Manc]

My mate who is a tennis nonce is balls deep on this Forejtek kid to beat Gasquet today.

Lost the first set. If the tennis nonce is right I'm on for a ton.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

I've just lobbed (wahey) £10 on him.

[Manc]

Is Gasquet still on the white?

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

The nonce wants locking up.

[Manc]

Is Gasquet still on the white?

Confirmed.

[Lofty]

I should have been wary of him after he almost me talked out of a winning bet on the boxing last night, apologies gents.

[Manc]

£200 return if Hatton wins, £100 for Rahm. In the computer we trust.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

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I'm sure if The Computer knew Sandy would be rocking braces it would have been all over him.

[Sir Andy Mahowry]

Bryson is having a meltdown

He's exploring the 13th hole very well

[Jimmy Floyd]

Best take it to the Masters thread (wherever it is) so as not to antagonise Taz, but: lol.

[Boydy]

How's Rahmbo doing?