The conversion rate across top European leagues is about 75%, so he's a slightly better than average penalty taker.
Suarez is the only other player in the squad who's taken penalties regularly throughout his career, and his conversion rate is 79%, but only 12 of 18 while at Barcelona.
I've just looked at prices and team news and I find it hard to envision myself not recreationally smashing the shit out of on Spurs 4/7 at Burney on Saturday.
I might also smash the shit out, of myself, on saturday.
Recreationally.
Alexis to join bayern @16
I'm a twit
Thankfully I didn't bet on him to score.
I did lose my other bet, but you know, I'm just hopelessly chucking money at shit at this point.
Could've been going Haydock Races tomorrow but something else got planned instead. Alas, I'll still have a bet:
I'm a twit
Crystal Palace are an unbelievable price tonight.
I talked myself out of putting money on Swansea
Double fail.
I'm a twit
Finally a few wins. Normally never go for accums but recently been doing some random ones:
(I'm not showing you the 5 accums I lost before those two
Nobody in their right mind is going to the Bundesliga these days, it's like a glorified Holland.
Ulloa to score anytime and Brighton win 2-1 @21. Because why wouldn't it happen now that I've thought about it and decided that it's obviously the logical outcome.
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SkyBet offering money back as cash (not free bets) if this doesn’t win. So either I get my £10 back or I get £45 - it’s a no brainer.
If you’ve any money in your SkyBet account, stick it in this!
I'm a twit
Chelsea to Win champions league at 40/1 on Betfair feels inflated to me.
They won't, I know, but if they just get a decent result against Barca in the first leg next week, at home, I feel those 40 will dip to at least 30-35 or maybe even less, meaning the trade out isn't so much worse than the 4/1 offered for a win for them in that game.
Firmino is 18/1 (SkyBet) to score a brace. Tempting. Not betting til Cheltenham though - I will hold strong.
If the bet is “to score a brace,” do you lose if he scores a hat-trick? Or is it really ‘at least two’?
I'm a twit
Phew.
Also imagine being this guy.
I'm a twit
My Cheltenham request a bet is currently the highest odds they’re offering @ 180
Stuck my free £5 bet on it.
I'm a twit
40/1 for McTominay to be carded, Salah to score [at least] two and Liverpool to win. Just like every bet I place, I look at it and think why wouldn’t it happen? Free money! Had £8 in there already so on it went.
I'm a twit
They should be giving you at least 80/1 on that.
I've got a fiver on Liverpool to win and our Bobby to score.
I put the following on:
£5 on Lukaku and Rashford AGS
£5 on Man United 2-0
£5 on BTTS & 3+ corners for each team & 2+ cards for each team
£5 on Lukaku & Salah to score, Valencia & Can carded
cba with my fifteen-game 7500/1 goals galore bonus coupon not coming in every week so I've done a twenty-game over 1.5 goal accumulator for saturday.
Returns £258.37.Sat 12:30
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Sat 14:00
Lazio v Benevento
Nancy v Stade Reims
Sat 14:30
Schalke v SC Freiburg
Sat 15:00
Hibernian v Partick Thistle
Elgin City v Stirling
Celtic v Ross County
Walsall v Portsmouth
East Fife v Ayr
Alloa Athletic v Arbroath
Sat 16:00
Dijon FCO v Marseille
Sat 17:00
KV Kortrijk v Waasland-Beveren
Sassuolo v Napoli
Spartak Moscow v FC Tosno
Sat 17:30
Everton v Manchester City
Las Palmas v Real Madrid
Hull v Aston Villa
Red Bull Salzburg v RZ Pellets WAC
St Polten v Sturm Graz
Sat 18:45
PSV Eindhoven v NAC Breda
I'm a twit
Needed chile to beat denmark for 110. They draw 0-0 after the other two results came in.
I try not to bet on Friendlies. It's hard, because it's basically the only way to make them interesting, but they just are so difficult to predict.
My annual rubbish post on the Masters (a week tomorrow). I am using Coral which has a horrible 10 place E/W payout and therefore a staggeringly huge overround on the market, so you should be able to get better prices for fewer places elsewhere.
It's a very hard one to call this year, not because of a paucity of contenders but because there are so many with a plausible case to win that it's hard to separate them. So first of all, let's eliminate some front runners... Dustin Johnson, at 8/1, may have clung onto his world number one status last week, but is well short of his best form and Augusta is a course that does not reward bombers. Jon Rahm (16/1) can be discounted for similar reasons, and I remain to be convinced that Justin Thomas (8/1) has matured enough to tackle one of the tougher majors, though he will get there.
This still leaves an array of shortish priced contenders and it's hard to look past one of this pool for the win. At every Masters I pick Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson and with both in superb form it will be no different this time. Five titles between them on a course which sets up beautifully for left handers (and right handed drawers off the tee) are impossible to ignore. Bubba has come in a long way and 12/1 is a bit slim, but Phil's 16/1 is decent value.
Rory McIlroy has started playing some of his best stuff, although as yet in fits and starts. One year he will get it going round here and he will be unbeatable, will it be this year? I might have some on the nose at 7/1.
Paul Casey is also in the form of his life and has a great game for Augusta, with five top tens in the past. Given how little he has won, 18/1 is a bit narrow and I'd prefer 25s. The last two years have seen European first time winners and I would say Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren are nicely placed to make it three, at 25/1 and 28/1 respectively both will be on my each way card. Both are superb wedge players which is important around Augusta, although if anything I would say Noren shades it on the putting. Justin Rose at 10/1 came so close last year and is in good form again, but 10/1 doesn't really tickle my interest. Nor, indeed, does 9/1 for the old cat himself, Tiger Woods who I think will do well but beating this field at that price, it's an optimist who spunks on that. That said, if he wins another Major I think it will be this one. One I do quite fancy, which will mean his undoing, is Jordan Spieth at 10/1. He has always been superb here (despite a couple of noted meltdowns) and although his long game has been dubious of late, it never stays that way for long.
The bigger prices will do well to beat the above cabal, but a few names I've picked out for £2 each way:
Brian Harman 50/1, a proven winner and a lefty in decent form. I slightly fear he could be just too short a hitter, though, as the winner here always takes advantage of the par 5s and Harman could be hitting some longish irons into them.
Cameron Smith 80/1, a young Aussie with a great temperament from the little I've seen and a few high placed finishes in big events. Think he could be a big Aussie star one day, for now he seems to be only very gradually creeping into people's consciousness. You might get a decent price also for him to finish Top Aussie ahead of Day, Scott and Leishman.
Ross Fisher 150/1, this seems a fairly big price for a consistent performer with a good all-round game who has made 4/5 cuts here before.
Patton Kizzire 150/1, if you don't fancy him for the green jacket then why not back him for top debutant, you don't win twice already this season unless you can play.
Bernhard Langer 400/1, this is for price alone but experience counts for everything at Augusta and Bernhard knows where the bodies are buried around here.
I noticed yesterday I've got £10 EW on Kiradech Aphibarnrat to win the Masters @ 250/1. I'm pretty sure I had to RequestABet it too. Not sure why I bothered!
I'm a twit
Good player is Kiradech but not sure they have a green jacket in his size.
I always like your posts about the majors, Jim but given how they usually go, I'll avoid all of those players. Cheers.
I won last year with Garcia. Or I won money anyway, no idea what I wrote in here. Can't remember the last time I picked a major winner before that. Probably 2014. It's a tough gig. I'll probably stake up on about half of the bolded names above.
Longest odds win I ever had on golf (or anything) was Wu Ashun for the China Open a few years ago at 300/1. One of those times you wish you'd done a fiver each way instead of a quid.
It's not impossible, as he's having a good year, but I don't think his record at Augusta is up to much.
EDIT: That is bollocks, T15 in his only start. The jacket is his, congrats.
Braga @3 vs Sporting Lisbon
Braga have won their past six league games. They are four points behind sporting who are third.
Edit: last minute winners
Last edited by SincereTheRebel; 31-03-2018 at 09:43 PM.
Scottish Championship
-1.6 Inverness @6 vs Brechin
Brechin have not won a league game all season. Four points all season. I don't usually mess around with handicaps but that type of form. They must not play with a goalkeeper.
Brechin are a funny case of ending up in a division which you're nowhere near good enough for.
Went up through the league one play-offs last season despite being perhaps the worst team in the league. Went off second favs against Stenhousemuir, who finished bottom, in the last game of the season, then fluked their way through the play-offs.
Could rather have done with knowing about all of this about eight months ago, instead of being filled in recently by someone who's been profiting off this information since August.
Better late than never.
My Champions League outright book consists of green for City and Liverpool, and red for the rest. From before the draw was made, obv. I should really make a decision but I haven't a clue which way to go.
Liverpool vs Man City
@4 Both teams to score in 1st half
@2 Both teams to score in 2nd half
@12 Both teams to score in both half
City to score in all 4 halves of the tie would be a good bet.
Had City and BTTS as that goal went in. Not sure if I'm happy about it or not, but I guess I'm basically just backing City now.
Similarly to Brechin, the Olympiakos bossman has sent every player on holiday early cos they’re all phoning it in, and is playing U20s for the remainder of the season. Put a lump on whoever they’re against for the remaining four weeks.
I'm a twit
Is the greek league in the bag or have they had a dreadful season?