Sergio Romero owes me £50.
Sergio Romero owes me £50.
I'm a twit
Christian Eriksen to Real Madrid.
Odds?
Good to have you back.
I've bet my entire [undisclosed] SkyBet balance on Palace to win at 13/8. Free money.
I'm a twit
Fancy a fair few goals to end the season, you can get mental odds for BTTS in both halves. I might stick a treble on for insane returns, tempted to back Palace as well think I will wait till team news is out though.
About a month ago I put a fiver on Nadal @2.87 and 50p on Wawrinka @9 to win the French Open. After seeing Djokovic's amazing performance tonight, I've put a fiver on him @4.
Might end up with a loss now but better to cover the Nadal bet as I feel I've got all bases covered with those three. Thiem and Zverev are doing great but not quite ready.
2. Bundesliga final day bets:
Union 0.0, +0.5 at 1.95
1860 -0.5 at 1.91
Aue 0.0 at 2.01
Arminia -0.0, -0.5 at 1.91
Wurzburger +1, +1.5 at 2.01
Cardboard for dinner if 0/5
1.5/5
Toenails it is.
What's your P/L for the season then dino?
Split down by league/ bet type / country.
The post season analysis.
Highest turnover leagues/countries since August, though it's still a small sample size for some of them:
http://i.imgur.com/VKSYbwa.png
http://imgur.com/a/gaCjx
Germany has been great. I've been a bit silly with Premier League betting so I should be doing less of that next season. Mainstream Asian stuff will be binned off entirely. Friendlies and internationals I think I've just ran really badly on but there's a few things I'll change.
http://imgur.com/a/LnlRg
I'm way too prone to shit overs stream bets, and apparently I underestimate home advantage
It's been ok but I'd have liked the numbers to be a lot better. Going to try a more specialised approach next season.
In some respects I'm very jealous of what you're doing. Can imagine it's difficult though because you'd have to be disciplined and have a side stream pulling off earnings into an untouchable "life" pot to make the whole thing work.
I'm a twit
Hard to express how badly you're being ripped off there. Should be about 140/1
11/1
BTTS is about evens
Ajax in 90 is about 2/1
Dolberg and Klaasan to score is 16/1 alone on Betfair
All my bets lose so whether it's 11/1, 28/1 or 140/1 it doesn't really matter.
Makes a game more interesting though.
I'm a twit
HFA may just be a symptom of the problem, which may be that you're staking too many minuses (with a minus more likely to be the home team).Originally Posted by dino
But I do better on home teams than away teams, so surely I'm not staking enough minuses. I actually stake more pluses than minuses and do worse on them.
Fair enough. I need to go through my spreadsheet to make general pluses/minuses stats, imagine I do a lot better on pluses than minuses though.
I don't stake goal-line bets at all anymore, apart from Mackers when he tips a goal-line bet in SA. Think it's very difficult to achieve as good a long-term RoI on goals as you can manage on asians.
Wait, are your stats above just for the year? 4,000 bets?
4000 stakes. That's from the automated spreadsheet mollybet gives you so probably loads of low limit games or games where I've traded. There's a random Danish game that I apparently had 97 bets on as well which definitely isn't right. I've had about 1000 bets this year.
You're right about overs in games you're just stream betting I think. Circumstancial late overs are some of the best bets going though.
Ah, I see. I'm at 1,100-1,200 so similar amount. How's the year going for you so far? I'm bemoaning the fact that I started with such reduced stakes when going full-time last August, upping stakes quicker each month now instead.
Late overs are class but overrated imo. The absolute class overs bets are rarer than people think, which is probably why people end up with high volume of overs bets but usually a poor RoI.
I'm having a decent year. Had no accounts and making good money in Asia so can't complain. Invested a lot of time and effort into the 2.Bundesliga stuff, pleased with how it's gone mostly but looking forward to changing and expanding it a fair bit for next season.
I've been busy with other stuff for the past 6 weeks or so and am away from home for most of the summer. Poses a bit of a challenge as the idea of being out of the game for so long makes me nervous (addiction etc.). Just going to follow the good international stuff that's on and hopefully make back the holiday.
BTTS and Ajax for later.
a quid on each of:
Man Utd in ET @11
Man Utd on pens @13
Ajax/Man Utd
Half time/full time
Sanchez and Arsenal 1-0
Probably a bit early but I'm not complaining.
Zambia u20s are a huge price vs Germany later today
I've gone - 1.5 with £5. Let's hope this comes in, Jimmy boy.
Why would Zambia be expected to beat Germany...?
Germany are dog shit at this level, sounds like Zambia should be faves.
Hmm Germany are winning now anyway... Might stay out of this one.
Decent tip, James, but hard to stomach that. Zambia 3-1 up with minutes to spare. I was hovering over the 'cash out' button, stupidly determined to hold out even though I couldn't help but dread the idea of relying on African defenders. Finished 3-3. I sweat I've lost about £200 through not cashing out in the past year.
They went through in extra time so you can back them against France in the next round.
Champions Trophy starts today. Pakistan are grossly overpriced at 30 on the Betfair exchange outrights. They won't win it, but are in the weaker group (in these conditions) and could easily go through to the semis at which point you'll be able to trade out in single figures.
Tomas Berdych fucked up what by the looks of it otherwise would have been a bit of an epic Accum
Italians did the job versus Jean-Kevin Mbappe & co.
Italy are going to win it I think. Zambia haven't a chance.
England vs Mexico promises to be the worst match of all time.
Carreno-Busta and Ramos-Vinolas double @4.4
Real Madrid in extra time @12
Real Madrid on penalties @11
All tips welcome this weekend. If I don't find money from somewhere it may have to be a sober Glastonbury (or a debt-ridden one, anyway).
Are you fucking kidding me with Andorra and Cyprus fucking shit up?
Not even angry. Mon the Swedes.
Yeah what the fuck
Quite chuffed.
Had £3 on draws in the Ireland - Austria, Moldova - Georgia, Serbia - Wales and Iceland - Croatia games. It would've returned almost £400.
Iceland scored in the 90th minute.
Now 6.8
I've greened so they will now win it.
I whacked £50 on England ages ago at 4.5 and forgot about it until a couple days ago. Stupidly short but I still fully think we'll win it.
@Jimmy Floyd - any tips for the US Open?
Justin Rose @ 26 is a glorious price.
£8.60 E/W on him.
I'm looking at it tomorrow but the course is absolutely mental and anyone who doesn't hit the ball straight off the tee is not in contention. Rickie Fowler might as well not turn up, and Mickelson literally hasn't turned up.
Without seeing odds I'd be thinking dull Americans in the game - Kuchar, Kisner, Walker and so on. Stricker might be a good one each way as I think he's a local and is very straight (albeit old).
Just seen the odds - Rose is a good price but not good enough to tempt me on the nose.
Stenson on the nose 35/1
Each way:
Alex Noren 66/1
Kaymer 100/1
Snedeker 150/1
Bill Haas 280/1
I see Davis Love IV, aka 'Dru Love' (quadruple) popping up towards the bottom of the odds.
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