The EU Referendum thread - sponsored by Harold's YouTube videos

[niko_cee]

They've appointed some French Grande Ecole Europhile anti-British fanatic to lead the negotiations on the part of the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...in-for-losing/



I'm sure the Germans will be thrilled. Enjoy Armageddon.

[GS]

The Commission are desperate to retain relevance in this, as almost all of it will end up being handled by the Council.

You'd almost feel sorry for Juncker if he wasn't doing so well out of our tax money.

[Lewis]

YouGov said its poll of 1,006 voters in Scotland in late July put support for independence at 47 per cent when “don’t knows and wouldn’t votes” were excluded, up slightly from the 45 per cent who backed leaving the UK in the 2014 referendum. But support for independence was lower when the issue was put in a post-Brexit context. Asked if they would rather live in a Scotland that was in the EU but not the UK, or a Scotland that was in the UK but not the EU, only 45 per cent backed independence, YouGov said.

Shocking that mate. Whilst another referendum defeat might not see the SNP off, would it be fair to say that it would give the government the freedom to ignore them forever?

[Byron]

I'd argue it would probably finish the SNP. They had their referendum, if they got another, had the added advantage of being able to push the 'EU' factor and still managed to lose then where is the argument? I don't see what else could happen to justify a third referendum given that Brexit is one of the biggest things to happen in recent years.

After that the only way you go is down and I imagine in 10 years time, the SNP will be back as the irrelevant moaners they were previously.

[GS]

It depends on the franchise, I think. If they do what they did last time which is let EU nationals vote, then you suspect support would be higher. I'd be telling them it's a British constitutional question and therefore they'll be using the general election franchise or none at all.

The truth is they had every conceivable advantage last time out and still lost. Now you'd be advocating choosing the EU over the UK (15% of exports versus 66%), the euro over sterling, and a £10bn annual deficit which the EU would laugh at you for.

The whole thing is just anti-English sentiment masquerading as 'independence'. The party might not be finished, as you have a sizeable minority with a considerable chip on their shoulder, but it would certainly ruin Salmond and Sturgeon's political aspirations. The pair of them are so determined to FREE SCOTLAND, and be the ones to do it, that they're incapable of actually governing properly - everything is conducted in the context of the constitutional question.

It was good fun watching that Named Person shite get thrown out by the Supreme Court, mind you. Fucking hell, the state of them.

[Kikó]

Every conceivable advantage? Like every media outlet and politician telling people to vote remain?

And of course it's anti English. It couldn't possibly be pro Scottish.

[GS]

Indeed. They were allowed to select the timing (2014 being the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn), the franchise (giving the vote to 16/17 year olds and EU nationals, but not to Scots living in the rest of the UK), the question (making their side the more positive 'yes'), the referendum was conducted at a time when oil prices were over $100 a barrel and the onshore deficit could be neatly disguised therein and during a prolonged programme of austerity driven by a Tory government in Westminster.

The 'no' side conducted the campaign horribly, and only latterly corrected their mistakes (like calling it 'Better Together' and thus preventing the sort of clear messaging that takes hold like 'Vote Leave, Take Control'). The SNP were able to present the same 'blank slate' message as Vote Leave, that voting with them meant you could have milk and honey three times a day.

Despite all of those advantages in timing, franchise, question control, a strong oil market, a Tory government, national austerity with disorganised, crap opposition and a 'blank slate' message that everything was possible - they still lost, and lost by a good margin. If Brexit isn't a sufficient enough constitutional shock to prompt a significant move in public opinion, nothing ever will be.

[GS]

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This is quite a good poll actually, as it demonstrates quite clearly the 'choice' post-Brexit. Ultimately if Scotland has a choice between two single markets - the UK or the EU - logic dictates that there is no choice to make. Exports are 64% to the UK, in a 'single market' with the same currency etc., and only 15% to the EU.

When you further consider that there's a £10bn deficit in Scottish finances (onshore only) - equivalent to a transfer of not far shy of £2K per person from rUK to Scotland, there's no serious argument one could make for independence right now. Oil is trading in the $40s at the minute, and you'd need it to push well past $60 per barrel before north sea production is even profitable. Even then, the industry is wanting massive tax breaks to try and get it kickstarted again, so tax revenues are never plugging the gap.

The idea that Scotland could do better outside the UK clearly doesn't stand up to any sort of serious scrutiny - if they did separate, they'd have a £10bn gap to plug with tax hikes and spending cuts. It's not exactly 'pro-Scotland' to advocate a position which will self-evidently cripple the economy.

By the way, before anybody makes a comparison with the Leave campaign, you'd note that if the EU were subsidising the UK to the equivalent of £2K a person - or about £130bn a year - then there would have been a landslide vote for Remain.

[Yevrah]

It's a massively anti-English movement, there's a core group of Scots who fucking hate us.

[Lewis]

I wonder whether it's a deliberate strategy to let Wee Jimmy Krankie run her mouth about all sorts of lol scenarios for keeping Scotland in the European Union. The government could (and really should) shut that shite down tomorrow, so, unless they're truly bricking it about them leaving this time, they can only be letting her show herself up for a reason.

[GS]

I assume there's a concern that 'shutting her down' would just give her more ammunition to complain about 'Westminster arrogance'. She's already designed her 'Brexit tests' to fail, so when they inevitably do she'll claim that 'the road must be independence'. Westminster have a very strong economic hand to play, so there's no point being deliberately provocative. Let her complain all she wants, the truth is an independent Scotland would run itself into the ground very, very quickly. She fucking knows it too. It's difficult to pretend your position is 'pro-Scotland' when your policy would actively shaft the entire country.

The problem for her is that the polls simply don't support going for it - she'd need at least 60% consistently to account for the campaigning swing, risk averse voters saying one thing and voting the other and the status quo (EU referendum excepted) bias. She's sitting well below that now, and if Brexit can't swing it then it's hard to see what does.

The best thing to do from May's perspective is to look accommodating and let the Nats look difficult / like whingers. I also suspect there's a plan to let the SNP government 'expose' itself as just not very good. It's fine agitating from the sidelines, but when you're confronted with actual responsibility it makes it difficult for you to blame other people. A few more lol policies like Named Person and a few swings back from the SNP at the next election will check their momentum, and help to ruin any plan Sturgeon has to make independence seem inevitable.

[Lewis]

[John]

What happened with the Gogglebox Asians?

EDIT - https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/153668...g-on-facebook/

[Yevrah]

I missed this at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivOOM0PbNps

Fucking hell.

[GS]

Hannan did well not to lamp her.

There's a documentary on tomorrow night which, judging from the few clips I've seen on the news, is going to be the likes of Will Straw CBE and Anna Soubry passing the blame as much as possible to anybody else. Mainly Jezza.