Kimmy has been up to no good again.
The DPRK has confirmed that a "warhead exploded" during a nuclear test.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-detected-live
Is it time to intervene? Is it fair to demand that the DPRK refrains from nuclear testing, whilst other countries are allowed? Is the country due to implode soon?
Gotta love the cadence of the Korean language.
Looks like they just set it off on the main roadQuality health and safety.
I love how BBC initially reported it as an earthquake.
That's such a soviet throwback.
Just FYI John, the account you embedded is a parody account run by a couple of lawyers over in the States.
There is no fairness in international relations. If it's in the interests of some countries to demand that, then they should/will demand it. Similarly, North Korea will demand whatever is in its interests to demand.Originally Posted by John Arne
Yeah, I've been following for a while now - he almost quit a few months ago because of the hassle of running it.
They still have significantly less nuclear strength than the Americans had on VJ Day. Everybody needs to calm down.
You'd have to assume that China would start to exert pressure on them if they ever actually looked like using one.
Always makes me laugh when all the world leaders come out the woodwork to condemn the test. It's quite clear they don't give two shits what anybody thinks or the sanctions placed on them.
Yeah all those world leaders you never ever hear from apart from when NK act up...like Barack. Get back to the woodwork!
They can't actually be suicidal so the likelihood of them using it (assuming it's even viable) is pretty slim so it's all just posturing from here on.
It's posturing, but the concern would be if they knew they were done for (whether because of internal revolt, a coup, invasion or whatever) and they might go full-blown mental and decide to take something down with them.
They'd need to have a death wish mind you, because the Americans could flatten the country in about a week if they really fancied it.
There isn't that much to flatten.
Well, precisely.
A North Korean refugee outflux would be fascinating (and horrific) to witness.
I really wonder how any sort of transition towards a democratic country would work.
The South would have to annex it and run it like a zoo.
Would the South even want it? Imagine the cost of getting that place up to standard.
They should just turn it into a giant Starcraft gulag, it's already half way there.
As if China would let that happen. They love that buffery goodness. It'll just turn into a shit Cuba eventually.
why wouldn't China just annex it themselves?
China basically bankrolls their entire country anyways? Isn't China one of their only real trade partners?
Because it's full of Koreans and it would be a total fucking nightmare. There are currently fairly barbaric internment camps for North Korean refugees in China, because they don't want them.
If it came to it, I reckon the Chinese would 'allow' reunification. It'd be a bit like Germany, only significantly more drastic. Ultimately, it would keep the Koreans occupied for about a quarter of a century, and let the Chinese go and worry about other things like artificial islands and subjugating Taiwan.
The question would be whether the south would want them. I suspect there would be a strong 'emotional' pull in doing so, but it would probably bankrupt them without international support. Therefore, there's no doubt they'd be after generous international subsidies to take it on, given those in the north live on grass and the infrastructure must be borderline non-existent at this point. You'd also have to invest a fortune in clearing the DMZ.
Still, if the recent global crises have shown anything, it's that people love a good bit of virtue signalling and a viral campaign they can get behind for a week or two. So you'd probably crowd-fund the money and be able to start a parallel campaign to 'house a North Korean' because it's 'humane and compassionate and tolerant'.
It would be interesting to see them do it. East Germany was reasonably well developed, and it avoided a lot of a weirdness that the other pinko countries experienced (they all watched West Germany telly), so it was easy enough to get with the programme once it fell to bits. The North Koreans would probably have to be nursed into it over a number of years so they didn't all go mental at the first whiff of broadband.
The south would definitely want them. There are still divided families and all sorts.
You could be our man on the ground, reporting on The Company's attempts to open a box factory in Haeju.
Samsung would just open a bigger, loss making box factory first.
lol at their missile test failing after everybody had shat the bed. I don't know if people realise how difficult it is to make decent ballistic missiles. It is much easier to make nuclear devices, and nuclear warheads, than it is to build a mega rocket capable of hitting a specific point five thousand miles away (Los Angeles, for example), which is why they have been chucking these things into the sea since the early-nineties.
I do wonder how much the Chinese really want to bother with them now. I imagine if Trump wanted to steamroller them, China would offer the token protest and that would be that.
The Americans could steamroller them with ease if they really wanted to. The concern would be whether they would just indiscriminately fire their entire arsenal (or what's left of it) into South Korea and flatten Seoul. It's not as Jong Un gets to stay in place if North Korea collapses. There's probably a better than average chance that half of them would fall into the sea, mind you.
If China are that terrified of the Americans being right on their border through a unified Korea, why not just take American forces out of Korea? The reunified Korean armed forces would be more than strong enough to handle themselves, and the Americans could just disperse their FIGHTING MEN AND WOMEN to their other bases (backed up as they are by all of those aircraft carriers begging to be sunk by a fifty quid missile).
Trump just fancies a show of force to make himself feel better about himself. Putin 101. Minus the approval ratings. If it was to kick off, could you guarantee a surrender out of Kim Jong Un? Could ya shite. And if you off him, the populous lose their fucking minds.
What do you advocate instead, then?
Bus them out by the backdoor and arrange some deal with the Americans where they keep acting as figureheads.
OR let the situation happen where the populous go nuts, wait for them to kill themselves and let some South Koreans move in.
You could sell the second plan to South Koreans as an expansion of the country, some sort of 'lebensraum'
I reckon as soon as the South got near enough to the capital the army stiffs would do him in and negotiate themselves a Daewoo and a pension.
Guys, remember that eejit that nicked a propaganda sign?
He's been in a coma for over a year
Whuh-oh.
Kid dies as soon as they get him home. I fear there could be actual bother from this.
I don't really see any end to this other than the Yanks going in balls deep to NK. They're not going to stop their nuclear missile research and it'd be mental to let them have them. If it's possible to stop them then it is only a matter of time until they'll have to strike to shut it down.
Although I'm not even sure if NK have conventional firepower that could hit the US coast now.
Worse than the middle east if that happens.
In terms of financial hit.
As has been discussed at length, any 'balls deep' intervention would require the South to accept mass deaths in Seoul and border cities and why would they when status quo can carry on infinitely while Kim fires his crap rockets into the sea. It's a deadlock at this point; we will just throw sanctions at them and they'll carry on with their brinkmanship. Plebs like this kid and that Matthew Miller only have themselves to blame when they risk going there and offer themselves up as bait.
It's telling that the US don't make an effort to bring these kids home.
I don't really see this as a 'final straw' issue, especially as 9 prisoners at Guantanamo have died whilst being illegally held by the US. It's all a bit pot-kettle-black, this.
I still reckon if you could take out Kim and his 4 or 5 henchmen in a surgical or stealth strike - the remaining regime would happily surrender immediately on the condition of leniency and aid.
I reckon the endgame will be some sort of internal regime change in North Korea. It can't be stable over the long term.
It will change when China finally get bored of their shit and propping them up becomes more trouble than it's worth. That seems a far more likely option than American military intervention.
This is worth reading.
That was a good read, though I don't think the author gave enough though to the third option, decapitation - he rather skimmed over it pretty quickly.
James Dresnok, the Yank who has lived (and had two kids) in the DPRK since the Korean War reportedly died last November according to his sons.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-died-say-sons
If you haven't watched the documentary about him - it's worth a watch.
The Japenese reckon North Korea have launched a missile at them.
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