I've already submitted so Newcastle so here's hoping they win.
77 left in one, 47 left in the other.
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Brentford shitting the bed at home against a woeful Everton side fucked me over.
Fulham then?
Still going.
18 in one, 16 in the other. I'm already spending the winnings in my head.
West Ham this week, at home to Everton. Hopefully the Thursday trip to Greece won't ruin it.
Have you already used Villa?
Villa (LUT)
Palace (bur) / Wolves (shu)
Man Utd (lut)
West Ham (bur)
Brentford (lut)
Fulham (nfo)
Wolves (nfo)
It won't get that far but this is my plan through to GW17. My game has a wild card that you play that sees you through if your selection gets a draw, probably use that next week.
No. Villa very popular this week, but is already sent West Ham so cmon Luton (soz).
Damn.
Good luck James.
£680 prize pot has rolled over. :drool:
Starts again this week. Should be over quickly thanks to the rush of Christmas games. More expected to join too so could be close to £1500 prize this time round.
What’s the plan @-james-?
14: Brentford vs Luton
15: Luton vs Arsenal
16: Luton vs Manchester City
17: Nottingham Forest vs Spurs
18: Aston Villa vs Luton
19: Burnley vs Liverpool
20: Manchester United vs Forest
21: Chelsea vs Fulham
22: Luton vs Brighton
23: Newcastle vs Luton
24: good luck brah
Blood bath this week. :drool: 70 eliminated, 26 progress to round 4.
Dead
Useless vampire cunt.
Another rollover :drool: prize is starting to get unreal
Did some absolute maniac pick Chelsea this weekend?
Absolute bloodbath.
Wow. So the big game I play is up to £2135 “minimum” prize money (whatever that means) and was down to two people left this weekend. Bournemouth drew so the last lad needs West Ham to win, who are currently losing 2-0 to Burnley. He’s backed the draw and Burnley win £100 on each, so he’s up either way, but it’s looking like yet another rollover.
What’s the play @-james- :harold:
Unlucky With both selections drawing, the game ends without a winner, so we roll over to game 4. The next full set of fixtures is w/e of 30th March, so we go again then. :thbup:
140 players, £10entry, rolled over loads of times.
I've just entered a game as well. This looks like the optimal path at the moment, though it depends on whether the midweek games in 34 are fair game
30: Chelsea (BUR)
31: Liverpool (SHU)
32: Man City (cry)
33: Brentford (SHU)
34: Man Utd (SHU)
35: Newcastle (SHU)
36: Arsenal (BOU)
37: Everton (SHU)
38: Spurs (SHU)
Chelsea first up and backing City against one of their few bogey teams? Bold.
30: Spurs (LUT)
31: Liverpool (SHU)
32: Chelsea (shu)
33: Man City (LUT)
34: Man Utd (SHU)
35: Newcastle (SHU)
36: Arsenal (BOU)
37: Everton (SHU)
38: ?
This is marginally better I think actually depending on the likelihood of making it to 38. Acca will pay about 7/1 to that point.
I’ve gone Bournemouth (eve). :cab:
Will copy your second list once Everton are successfully dispatched tomorrow.
Gone Arsenal like a mad man.
Bet you glad you switched from Chelsea to Spurs :arry:
Yep, cheers niko. :) Over half the field out.
Dropping like flies with all these draws. :drool:
:moop:
You were warned.
I'd do it again. :shrug,:
Surely even the data at this point suggests that Chelsea are a bit of a punt in any situation.
I generally just try minimize the odds of getting to the number of matches I expect the game to run for. Chelsea were the joint second shortest team this week (City 1.35, Spurs/Chelsea 1.42, Arsenal 1.52, Liverpool 1.59, Everton 1.75), but in hindsight there was a pretty good case for Arsenal/Everton (considering I was looking at picking them much later and I'm not sure the game will get there).
For example. I want to run one for the euros. Lets says its the semi final and all four teams, have already been picked by Person A. Are you saying it resets for them, even though they have picked the four teams in the semi's. They get to pick either of the four teams left?
I'm not sure I've seen it run for a knockout tournament like that before. I think a better rule would be if you don't have any teams left if you get to the semi or final, you're out. Would incentivise riskier play (picking weaker teams) in the groups.
Yeah, does sound tricky with knockout football but Ill give it a go, and cross that bridge when I get there.
You definitely want to declare the rules from the outset. I see three options:
Knocked out when you run out of teams
Get a fresh set if you run out of teams
Fresh set after the group stage
I prefer the agressive approach. Knocked out when you run out of teams will force you, to pick teams that have yet to the win the competition in the hope you can save picks for the later stages.
I’ve the option to enter into a bit of a weird comp for the euros. Will do it to keep me interested.
Quote:
Basically you get 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw. All points added up for all your 3 team choices. If all your 3 teams don’t make it through to knock out stages your likely to not win as you won’t pick up any points from them games. Person with the most points at the end wins. However, everyone will guess how many goals are scored throughout the competition at the beginning with the 3 team selection and if there are 2 or more people on the same points at the end we use your goal selection to see who’s closest and they will win.
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Any obvious ways to win?
Sounds like you get to pick your three teams and its not a random draw?
Yeah you pick 3 upto the value of 50.
Germany seem a must at 16, especially considering Croatia are 17 and their groups solid.
I would go France, Portugal and Romania or maybe France, England and Slovenia.
Belgium seem high. As you say, Germany is a must.
Using predicted group stage goals as a proxy for team strength, I (chatgpt) get England, Germany and Turkey as the optimal 3.
Code:from itertools import combinations
import pandas as pd
teams = ['England', 'France', 'Germany', 'Portugal', 'Spain', 'Belgium', 'Italy', 'Netherlands', 'Croatia', 'Denmark', 'Turkey', 'Ukraine', 'Switzerland', 'Serbia', 'Czechia', 'Austria', 'Hungary', 'Romania', 'Slovakia', 'Scotland', 'Georgia', 'Poland', 'Slovenia', 'Albania']
xG = [8.5, 8.1, 8, 7.5, 7, 6.9, 5.3, 5, 4.2, 4.1, 3.8, 3.8, 3.7, 3.6, 3.5, 3.3, 3, 3, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.3, 2.3, 1.5]
cost = [22, 24, 16, 21, 19, 23, 18, 20, 17, 14, 6, 13, 15, 9, 8, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 1, 10, 3, 2]
df = pd.DataFrame({
'Team': teams,
'xG': xG,
'Cost': cost
})
max_xG = 0
best_combination = None
for combination in combinations(df.itertuples(), 3):
total_cost = sum(team.Cost for team in combination)
total_xG = sum(team.xG for team in combination)
if total_cost <= 50 and total_xG > max_xG:
max_xG = total_xG
best_combination = combination
result = [(team.Team, team.xG, team.Cost) for team in best_combination]
[('England', 8.5, 22), ('Germany', 8.0, 16), ('Turkey', 3.8, 6)]
:D
That’s that then.
Any guesses for the tiebreaker?
Seems like more goals are being scored than ever. Not sure if this is a fact across the major european leagues but i would go higher than ever